130 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey

STATE POLLING

New individual polls today from Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and New Jersey.

Also, in their first public polling this year, BallotPedia and Evolving Strategies conducted one the largest and most detailed polling of seven battleground states: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Of major note, with this latest batch of polls (today and yesterday), Ohio has now moved to blue, and Pennsylvania is right on the cusp of moving into the blue category. This means that Clinton now has a 245 to 142 lead over Trump with 151 still in play.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Utah: Trump up by 5%
Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%
Arizona: Trump up by 0.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
Iowa: Clinton up for 3.85%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.9%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.4%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%

NATIONAL POLLING

New tracking poll today From FOX News, which has Clinton expanding her lead to +6.

Nationally, the composite polling average has Clinton up by 5.6%

TODAY'S TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Nate Silver: Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President 

(FiveThirtyEight) -- How do you predict a general election with Donald Trump? We can think of a few basic approaches. One of them is to assert that precedent doesn’t apply to this election and that Trump’s case is sui generis. It’s not clear where that leads you, however.

If Trump is “unpredictable,” a phrase we heard used to describe him so often during the primaries, does that mean his chances of defeating Hillary Clinton are 50/50? If that’s what you think, you have the opportunity to make a highly profitable wager. Betting markets put Trump’s chances at only 20 percent to 25 percent instead.

Are The Polls Skewed Against Trump?

(Politico) -- Is there a pool of voters who are too embarrassed to admit to pollsters they’re voting for Donald Trump? As Trump consistently lags Hillary Clinton in general-election polls, his campaign is counting on it.

The notion of the “shy Trump voter” refers to the theory that there’s a group of voters who won’t admit their support for Trump in phone surveys, but will actually choose the controversial, presumptive GOP presidential nominee this fall.

Clinton-Obama Road Show Is Launching In North Carolina

(The Atlantic) -- There are two simple ways to cut through the bluster and the spin to see how a presidential campaign is really feeling about its prospects at any given moment: You can follow the money, and you can follow the plane.

Is a candidate retrenching by spending more time and ad dollars in states their party has won in the past and must hold onto in November? Or is he or she being more aggressive—and aspirational—by trying to expand the map and add states that are more difficult, and potentially less crucial, to capture the White House?

Trump Fundraising Emails Overseas Prompt Complaints Here And Abroad

(Washington Post) -- Sir Roger Gale was puzzled when a string of emails from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign landed in his inbox. As a Briton and a member of Parliament, Gale is barred by U.S. law from giving Trump money, much less voting for him. “I’ve gotten rid of most of that rubbish,” Gale said in an interview.

The emails to Gale were among a wave of fundraising pleas inexplicably sent by the Trump campaign in recent days to lawmakers in the United Kingdom, Iceland, Australia and elsewhere. The solicitations prompted watchdog groups in Washington to file two separate complaints Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission alleging that the Trump campaign was violating federal law by soliciting funds from foreign nationals.

131 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, New Hampshire, Wisconsin

STATE POLLING

Six new polls today, from Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Clinton was ahead in all except for Arizona, which is now a virtual tie between the candidates.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Utah: Trump up by 5%
Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%
Arizona: Trump up by 0.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.3%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%
Iowa: Clinton up for 3.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.8%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%

Currently, Clinton has a 227 to 142 lead over Trump with 169 still in play.

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll today from Quinnipiac that shows the race tightening a bit, with Clinton up +2, reversing the trend of the last two weeks of polling.

Currently, the composite polling average has Clinton up by 5.6%, down 1.6% from last week.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

House Benghazi Report Finds No New Evidence of Wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton

(New York Times) -- Ending one of the longest, costliest and most bitterly partisan congressional investigations in history, the House Select Committee on Benghazi issued its final report on Tuesday, finding no new evidence of culpability or wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton in the 2012 attacks in Libya that left four Americans dead.

The 800-page report delivered a broad rebuke of the Defense Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the State Department — and the officials who led them — for failing to grasp the acute security risks in Benghazi, and especially for maintaining outposts there that they could not protect.

Trump Announces Three Top Campaign Hires

(Politico) -- Donald Trump’s campaign announced a trio of new hires Tuesday morning as it ramps up its general election operation to match the massive team backing Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Former Republican National Committee communications department staff member Michael Abboud will join the Trump campaign as a communications coordinator. Abboud will focus on rapid response and daily messaging, the campaign announced, common political tactics that the Manhattan billionaire’s camp has only just recently begun to employ.

Clinton Rolls Out Wide-Ranging Technology Agenda

(Reuters) -- Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton on Tuesday laid out a technology and innovation agenda ranging from connecting every U.S. household to high-speed internet by 2020 to beefing up cyber security and reducing regulatory barriers.

A statement issued by her campaign said Clinton strongly supports the Obama administration's net neutrality rules requiring broadband providers to treat all data equally, rather than giving or selling access to a so-called Web fast lane.

Sanders Gives "Amazingly Condescending" Interview About Clinton

(Washington Post) -- The Democratic presidential primaries ended two weeks ago today. Bernie Sanders is still kind of, sort of running for the nomination, despite the fact he has lost -- by every possible metric -- to Hillary Clinton.

Clinton and her campaign have been generally fine with all of this, pivoting to the general election and assuming the Sanders thing would work itself out. That approach may change after the interview Sanders gave to MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell on Tuesday.

132 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas and Arkansas

STATE BY STATE POLLING

Two new state polls today, both firsts for this year: Texas (Trump +8) and Arkansas (Trump +11).

This doesn't change the battleground list any, though it is interesting to note that Romney won Texas by almost 16% over Obama in 2012, while Trump has only half that number.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Utah: Trump up by 5%
Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.3%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
Arizona: Clinton up by 1.6%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.5%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
Iowa: Clinton up for 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%

NATIONAL POLLING

No new national polls out today.

Currently, the composite polling average has Clinton up by 7.2%
.

TODAY'S HEADLINES

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion access law

(CNN) -- In a dramatic ruling, the Supreme Court on Monday threw out a Texas abortion access law in a victory to supporters of abortion rights who argued it would have shuttered all but a handful of clinics in the state. The 5-3 ruling is the most significant decision from the Supreme Court on abortion in two decades and could serve to deter other states from passing so-called "clinic shutdown" laws.

In joining with the liberal justices, perennial swing vote Justice Anthony Kennedy helped deliver a victory to abortion rights activists and signaled the court's majority in their favor could continue regardless of the presidential election and the filling of the empty seat on the bench left by the death of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia.

Who Will Donald Trump Pick as His VP?

(NBC News) -- A man who's famous for firing people on TV is now preparing to make the most important hire of his career. Donald Trump's campaign is working to narrow down its list of possible vice presidential candidates, weighing the strengths and weaknesses of a shortlist of potential picks.

Trump, who has no military or government experience, is said to seek a second-in-command with the policy and political experience to navigate a law-making system that remains largely opaque to the real estate mogul. And Trump's uniquely bombastic demeanor means that he faces a unique challenge in arranging a political marriage that also won't exacerbate an already fractured Republican Party.

Is Elizabeth Warren Really the Best Choice for Vice President?

(Slate) -- Will America see its first all-female ticket for the White House? The signs are strong. Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is most everyone’s favorite pick for the vice presidential slot, despite some very good reasons she shouldn’t be on the ticket.

Not only is she under heavy consideration from the Clinton campaign—which is “vetting” her, along with Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro—but she’s been at the forefront of the Democratic push against Donald Trump and a strong advocate for the former secretary of state.

Benghazi report: Clinton should have realized risks

(CNN) -- House Republicans are planning to release a long-awaited report Tuesday on the Benghazi terror attacks that killed four Americans on Hillary Clinton's watch as secretary of state, reviving the politically charged issue less than five months before the election.

The report, parts of which have already been reviewed by CNN, paints a picture of a perfect storm of bureaucratic inertia, rapidly worsening security in Libya and inadequate resources in the months that led up to the killings of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three colleagues on September 11, 2012.

133 Days Till Election Day: New polls from North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado

STATE-BY-STATE POLLING

New polls in from North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida and Colorado.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Utah: Trump up by 5%
Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.3%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
Arizona: Clinton up by 1.6%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.5%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
Iowa: Clinton up for 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%

Currently, Clinton has a 227 to 142 lead over Trump with 169 still in play.

NATIONAL POLLING

Two new general election polls from NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl and ABC News/Wash Post.

Currently, the composite national polling average has Clinton up by 7.2% over Trump.

TODAY'S HEADLINES

Trump camp scrambles to shape up before GOP convention

(AP) -- Republicans are sprinting to shape up Donald Trump’s presidential campaign before the party’s national convention in three weeks, even as leading members of the party carry a deep antipathy or outright opposition to his claim on the GOP nomination.

His campaign chairman said Sunday there’s a hiring spree in 16 states and the campaign is working with the Republican National Committee to solidify other matters. Paul Manafort said Trump is not all that involved in the race to organize an offensive against Democrat Hillary Clinton and catch up to her massive fundraising advantage.

'Yes,' I will vote for Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders says 

(LA Times) -- Hillary Clinton can count on a vote from Bernie Sanders come November, the Vermont senator said Friday.

“Yes,” Sanders said during  an interview with MSNBC  in response a question about whether he would cast his ballot for her. “I think the issue right here is I’m going to do everything I can to defeat Donald Trump.”

On Eve of SCOTUS Abortion Decision, Texas Accused of Suppressing Key Data

(NBC) -- The Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision Monday on Texas' abortion law, in what could be the most consequential ruling on the issue in a generation. The question: Do new requirements on abortion providers pose an unconstitutional "undue burden" on Texas women?

But among the reams of evidence presented to the high court and the public debate in Whole Woman's Health v. Hellerstedt, something is still missing: A full, official account of the initial impact of the law on Texas women.

Study Sees Debt Jumping Under Trump, Staying Steady Under Clinton

(WSJ) -- Donald Trump’s tax and spending proposals would greatly increase the national debt over the next 10 years, while Hillary Clinton’s combination of new revenue and new spending would have a nearly negligible effect on the country’s $14 trillion debt, according to a study released Sunday.

Under the plan put forward by Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, the U.S. debt would grow to 127% of the entire economy, up from 75% today, according to the analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates bringing down the national debt.

134 Days Till Election Day: No new polls

No new state polls today, but (as usual) some interesting headlines:

Clinton Regains Double-Digit Lead Over Trump

(Reuters) -- Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton regained a double-digit lead over Republican rival Donald Trump this week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

The June 20-24 poll showed that 46.6 percent of likely American voters supported Clinton while 33.3 percent supported Trump. Another 20.1 percent said they would support neither candidate.

'This Is Not My Party': George Will Goes from GOP to Unaffiliated 

(PJ Media) -- Conservative columnist George Will told PJM he has officially left the Republican Party and urged conservatives not to support presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump even if it leads to a Democratic victory in the 2016 presidential election.

Will, who writes for the Washington Post, acknowledged it is a “little too late” for the Republican Party to find a replacement for Trump but had a message for Republican voters.

Donald Trump Sells Candidacy, Golf Courses

(CNN) -- As Donald Trump fielded reporters' questions from the 9th hole of Trump Turnberry Friday, the neatly manicured greens and nearby club house adorned with dazzling chandeliers and gold-plated fixtures imparted a sense of déjà vu.

It was another Trump campaign event at another Trump property.

‘Brexit’ Revolt Casts a Shadow Over Hillary Clinton’s Cautious Path

(New York Times) -- For Hillary Clinton, Britain’s emotionally charged uprising against the European Union is the sort of populist victory over establishment politics that she fears in the coming presidential election.

Mrs. Clinton shares more with the defeated “Remain” campaign than just their common slogan, “Stronger Together.” Her fundamental argument, much akin to Prime Minister David Cameron’s against British withdrawal from the European Union, is that Americans should value stability and incremental change over the risks entailed in radical change and the possibility of chaos if Donald J. Trump wins the presidency.

135 Days Till Election Day: No new polls

No new state polls today, but some interesting headlines:

Who Is Ahead In Arizona, Clinton or Trump? Polls Disagree

(Arizona Daily Star) -- Two polls out this week Arizona can't seem to decide who is ahead in the presidential race here in Arizona.

A poll by Strategies 360 of 503 likely voters has Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump ahead statewide by five percent, while Predictive Insights interviewed 1,060 likely voters and found Democratic presidential Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump, also by five percent.

Politico Delegate Survey: Dump Trump Lacks The Votes

(Politico) -- Republicans looking to dump Donald Trump at next month’s convention have passion, energy and a fierce sense that their party will suffer unless Trump is unseated. What they appear to lack, however, are the votes to make it happen.

Politico reached out to all 112 members of the committee that will write the rules of the national GOP convention. This is the panel that anti-Trump activists hope to jam a proposal through to free convention delegates to spurn Trump and select another candidate instead.

Draft of Dems’ Policy Positions Reflects Sanders’ Influence

(Washington Post) -- A draft of the Democratic Party’s policy positions reflects the influence of Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign: endorsing steps to break up large Wall Street banks, advocating a $15 hourly wage, urging an end to the death penalty.

Hillary Clinton’s supporters turned back efforts by Sanders’ allies to promote a Medicare-for-all single-payer health care system and a carbon tax to address climate change, and freeze hydraulic fracking.

Many Experienced GOP Strategists Unwilling To Work For Trump

(Washington Post) -- Donald Trump has finally acknowledged that to best compete against Hillary Clinton he needs more than the bare-bones campaign team that led him to primary success. But many of the most experienced Republican political advisers aren’t willing to work for him.

From Texas to New Hampshire, well-respected members of the Republican Party’s professional class say they cannot look past their deep personal and professional reservations about the presumptive presidential nominee.

136 Days Till Election Day: Setting the map

Currently, Clinton has a 227 to 142 lead over Trump with 169 still in play. 

Here are the current averages from the battleground states, per my state-by-state polling algorithm:

Utah: Trump up by 5%

Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%

Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%

Colorado: Trump up by 1.9% 

Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%

North Carolina: Clinton up by 0.2%

Arizona: Clinton up by 1.6%

Florida: Clinton up by 3% 

Ohio: Clinton up by 3.5% 

Nevada: Clinton up by 3.9%

New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.2%

Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%

Iowa: Clinton up for 5%

Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%

Here's the map, as of this posting:

Okay, here we go...

After much encouragement, I have started a blog to keep track of my Electoral College predictions for the 2016 Presidential Campaign.

I had been posting these on Fark (both in the PolTab when applicable to a thread and weekly on TotalFarkDiscussion), but a number of people asked for a way to keep track of changes and updates in a single place.

So here you go. Hope you enjoy it and find it useful.