Is The Warren "Surge" A Real Thing?

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

This past week's Democratic debate made three things clear: 1) Elizabeth Warren is the primary target for the other candidates now, 2) Bernie Sanders' health issues are (for now) not much of a concern, and 3) did we mention Elizabeth Warren is now the primary target for the other candidates?

 

The national media has been awash in stories about Warren's "surge" in the polls and how she's at least the "co-frontrunner" now. But do the numbers actually support these claims? Let's take a look.

 

Nationally, Warren has been ahead of Biden in four of the past ten polls, yet the three post-debate polls showed a noticeable drop in her support. At the state level, she now leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but is well behind in South Carolina, and has fallen to third place in Nevada among the "first four" states. Yet the most recent poll from California, one of the big "Super Tuesday" states, was her best poll yet in the Golden State, and pushes her to the lead there. 

 

So what to take from all of this? Biden is still the frontrunner, but with an asterisk. Warren is not quite up to co-equal status with him, currently six points behind him nationally, but her apparent ceiling is a lot higher, while Biden seems to have reached his peak support (for now) and isn't being helped at all by all the focus on his son Hunter and the Ukraine mess. 

 

As for Bernie Sanders, all eyes were on him during the debate to see how his recent heart attack would affect his performance. To the relief of his supporters (and likely, privately, to the disappointment of his competitors), the old lion was full of his usual energy and enthusiasm. Even so, he received virtually no polling bump from the debate.

For the rest of the candidates on stage, the time has come to seriously consider their other political options. Should they try to a Senate seat? Look to their local governor's race? Hitch their bandwagon to whom they think will win the nomination in hopes of a cabinet posting? It is quickly getting to the "fish or cut bait" moment, and the fish just aren't biting.
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Biden gets a bit of extra breathing room this week, while everyone else stays in virtually the same positions as they were last week. 

 

The Top Two

• Biden -- 28.7% (up 0.9%)
• Warren -- 22.5% (down 1.1%)

The Lonely Middle

• Sanders -- 16% (up 0.7%)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.4% (up 0.3%)
• Harris -- 5.1% (up 0.3%)
• Yang -- 2.5% (down 0.2%)
• O'Rourke -- 2.2 % (up 0.1%)

 

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

 

This week, we have a big batch of new polls from the early states, with three from Iowa, four from New New Hampshire, and three from South Carolina. In both Iowa and New Hamphsire, Warren has moved to a three point lead over Biden and ten points ahead of Sanders. In South Carolina, Biden still holds a dominating lead over the rest of the pack, with a 23-point lead over a distant second-place Warren.

 

As for the Super Tuesday states, a new California poll had the best one yet for Warren, and pushes her to the top of the pack, but still with only five points separating her, Biden, and Sanders. The only other poll is from North Carolina, where Biden maintains his strong lead in the state.

 

Warrent Continues To Climb, Sanders Falters, Republicans Wonder "What If?"

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

When the election cycle began, most political prognosticators predicted the Democratic primary race would come down to a choice between a centrist Democrat and a progressive Democrat. Which was, after all, a pretty safe prediction to make since the 2016 race had the same result. What makes the current race interesting is having two very strong progressive candidates mixing it up with the main centrist candidate ... who just happens to be a former Vice President for a very popular (among Democrats) President. 

 

Over the past five weeks, however, it appears the progressive voters within the party have been slowly coalescing around their preferred candidate: Elizabeth Warren. Her continued rise in the polls, combined with steadily declining numbers for Bernie Sanders, has now made this a race between Joe Biden and Warren. 

 

At least for the moment. As we all know, things can (and usually do) change quickly. 

Consider that three weeks ago, very few Americans could name the Ukrainian president, much less find the country of a map. Now, Ukraine is dominating the news and shows no sign of fading away as the House continues their impeachment investigation amidst nearly daily bombshells.

 

Which brings us to a question more and more politicos are asking: what happens to the presidential race if Trump isn't the GOP nominee? The question itself is two-fold: 1) who will be the GOP nominee if not for Trump, and 2) how will the Democratic strategies change if Trump is no longer in the race. 

 

As to the first question, one would assume that current Vice-President Mike Pence would be the odds-on favorite, considering he would become President on Trump's removal from office (or resignation). However, Pence may not survive the Ukraine scandal himself, and could be seen as too damaged or corrupted by GOP voters.

 

So who else would the party find acceptable? 

Don't be too surprised if it's former GOP nominee and current Utah Senator Mitt Romney. He's come out quite publicly in opposition to Trump this past week (and has been retaliated at, to no surprise), has been working behind the scenes to support vulnerable GOP senatorial candidates, already has a large financial war chest from his previous campaigns, and could easily raise a lot of money quickly.

 

Other names that could join the fray in a Trump-less race include Bill Weld, Ted Cruz, Michael Bloomberg, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Liz Cheney, Bob Corker, or Nikki Haley. In other words, if you thought the current Democratic field was large, the 2020 race could end up being a LOT more confusing.

 

As to the second question, Trump being removed from office would be a huge blow to the Biden candidacy, since pretty much his entire campaign has been focused on "toss the bum out". Warren and Sanders, on the other hand, have made no bones about their desire to see Trump out of the White House but have also been campaigning on a lot of other issues that are quite popular amongst both progressive and centrist Democratic voters.

 

And strategies will also change drastically depending on who the GOP candidate is. For example, a campaign against Pence would look a lot different than one against Romney and a lot different from one against Nikki Haley. If such a scenario would to happen, it will be absolutely fascinating to see how each of the campaigns adpat and adjust. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Biden and Warren are moving ever closer to each other, while Sanders is now in the no-mans-land between the top tier and the rest of the pack … who are all hoping the next debate will help move them out of single digits. 

 

The Top Two

• Biden -- 27.8 % (up 0.6 %)
• Warren -- 23.6 % (up 1.8 %)

The Lonely Middle

• Sanders -- 15.3 % (down 0.9 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.1 % (down 0.3 %)
• Harris -- 4.8 % (down 0.3 %)
• Yang -- 2.7 % (down 0.3 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.3 % (no change)

 

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Of the "first four", we have one new poll in South Carolina where Biden maintains his huge lead over the rest of the pack. One item of note in the poll is that Warren has now passed Sanders for second place in the state.  

As for the "Super Tuesday" states, we have one poll from North Carolina where Biden maintains his lead, but the race is a lot closer between him, Warren, and Sanders than it is just one state south. 

Biden Feeling The Heat, Warren Keeps Climbing, Sanders Future Uncertain

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

It's been an eventful week for the main Democratic presidential candidates. Bernie Sanders had a heart attack, Joe Biden's fundraising has fallen way off, and Elizabeth Warren had to fire a top campaign aide for "inappropriate behavior". 

 

Of course, most of that news -- even Sanders' heart attack -- has been pushed back or all but overlooked as the news cycle has been dominated with the ongoing impeachment investigations into President Donald Trump. 

 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Biden remains the frontrunner, but his lead over Warren is now just barely five points, while Sanders continues to fall slowly backwards. How his recent heart attacks plays into this support will be something to watch in the next week or two. Of note this week is that Cory Booker has fallen out of the second-tier, with his average failing to break the 2% level.

 

The Top Three

• Biden -- 27.2 % (down 0.6 %)
• Warren -- 21.8 % (up 2 %)
• Sanders -- 16.2 % (down 0.5 %)
   

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.4 % (up 0.1 %)
• Harris -- 5.1 % (down 0.1 %)
• Yang -- 3 % (up 0.4 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.3 % (down 0.1 %)

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Of the "first four", we have new polls in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Biden hold the lead in all three states, but only in South Carolina is he dominant. In New Hampshire, he and Warren are within the margin-of-error, and in Nevada, it's a three-way race between the top three. 

As for the "Super Tuesday" states, we have new polls from California -- where it's a virtual tie between the top three -- and North Carolina -- where Biden maintains a commanding lead.