Iowans Caucus On Monday, Race A Complete Muddle

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

After dealing with a nasty flu bug that swept through the Mission household (which had nothing to do with coronavirus or even Corona beer), we are back with a new update just in time for the Iowa Caucuses and the "official" start to the primary season.
 

And while we've been gone, there's been a lot of election-related news.
 

We officially have one less candidate in the race as John Delaney, one of the first "serious" candidates to throw his hat in the ring, has ended his campaign. The former Maryland congressman has been campaigning steadily (mostly in Iowa) since July of 2017 and made an appearance in all 99 counties. Yet, he never gained any real traction, and failed to even register in any of the recent statewide polls.
 

Bernie Sanders has been surging, which has his supporters even more energized than usual (if that's possible) and has many of the establishment Democrats winging their hands in worry over a dyed-in-the-wool socialist winning the party nomination. 

 

Another candidate who has been moving up the polls, helped in no small part by the largest political ad campaign in history for the primary season, is Michael Bloomberg. Who has yet to appear on a debate stage because he doesn't meet the DNC's requirement for number of financial supporters … since he is self-funding his campaign. However, bowing to the obvious, the DNC is considering eliminating the rule, thus allowing the former New York City mayor to appear in the next debate.

 

And finally, the political ramifications of the GOP-led Senate to refuse to allow any witnesses to testify in their half of the impeachment process could very well haunt them for a very long time. The 51-49 vote, which all but makes it certain President Trump will be acquitted in the Senate, was opposed by a majority of independents, and even a sizeable number of Republicans. While this will unlikely affect Trump's re-election chances, it could very well play a large part in which party ends up controlling the Senate come next January.

 

IOWA POLLS 

Iowans gather on Monday to caucus. For a breakdown on how that process will work, and what has changed from past election, NPR has a ground breakdown. For our purposes, we are going to look at the five most recent polls and see if we can divine from the electoral tea leaves who is most looking forward to the headlines on Tuesday morning.

	NYT	USA Today	Emerson	Iowa St.	Monmouth		Average
Sanders	25	19	30	24	21		23.8
Biden	17	25	21	15	23		20.2
Buttigieg	18	18	10	17	16		15.8
Warren	15	13	11	19	15		14.7
Klobuchar	5	6	13	11	10		9.6

Right now, it's pretty much anyone's game. Which for the candidates is a bit nerve-wracking, while for the political talking heads a gift from upon high. And with the changes to how the results are published, we could easily have two candidates both claim victory. Or more. Or all of them. It's all about the spin. 
 

NEW STATE POLLS 

 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. 

We've covered Iowa above, so let's look at the next three states, starting with the first full primary state: New Hampshire. Sanders is definitely surging in what is basically his backyard, though as in Iowa, the separation between top four candidates is much closer than any of them would like.

	Suffolk	WBUR	CNN	NBC	Herald		Average
Sanders	16	29	25	22	29		24.2
Biden	15	14	16	15	22		16.4
Buttigieg	12	17	15	17	10		14.2
Warren	10	13	12	13	16		12.8
Klobuchar	5	6	6	10	5		6.4

Nevada isn't much clearer, though out in the desert it appears to be more of a three-candidate race between Biden, Sanders, and Warren:

	Nevada Ind	CBS	Fox News	Fox News	USA Today		Average
Biden	29	33	24	23	19		25.6
Sanders	19	23	18	17	18		19
Warren	19	21	18	12	11		16.2
Buttigieg	7	9	8	6	8		7.6
Steyer	4	2	5	12	8		6.2

And, finally, we head down South to Biden Country, also known as South Carolina:

	Monmouth	CBS	Quinnipiac	Courier	Fox News		Average
Biden	33	45	33	27	36		34.8
Warren	16	17	13	19	10		15
Sanders	12	15	11	20	14		14.4
Steyer	4	2	5	5	15		6.2
Buttigieg	3	8	6	9	4		6

What all this means, at least from where we site with out cracked and cloudy crystal ball, is that by the end of the February, we could have two or three candidates each claiming front-runner status, which another half dozen refusing to drop out in hopes of showing well on Super Tuesday. Which is where Bloomberg is planning to make a major impact.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have ten new polls to add to the national average. Biden maintains his months-long lead, while Sanders cracks the 20% mark for the first time this year. Warren and Buttigieg, on the other hand, see their lowest numbers of the year, which Bloomberg continues to climb and both Yang and Klobuchar add a bit of support to their (admittedly) low numbers.

 

• Biden -- 28.6%
• Sanders -- 22.1%
• Warren -- 14.3%
• Bloomberg -- 8.5%
• Buttigieg -- 6.5%
• Yang -- 4.5% 
• Klobuchar -- 3.8%

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls. And, as noted above, Julian Castro has officially ended his presidential campaign.