Biden Slips A Little, Sanders Stays Level, Warren Moves Up

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With four new national polls out last week, the two latest from The Hill/HarrisX and Monmouth, it appears the early race for the Democratic nomination is fairly stagnant. Yes, Joe Biden did see his lead drop nearly three points, but those points were spread out among several challengers … and notably not to Bernie Sanders, who maintained virtually the same numbers.  

The two main candidates picking up those numbers were Elizabeth Warren, who increased her standing by just over a point from last week, and Kamala Harris, who improved her chances by half a point. That said, when they are 25 or more points behind Biden, a half a point here and a full point there isn't much to celebrate.

NEW NATIONAL POLLS 

We have two new national polls since our last update:

Monmouth University, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden at 33, followed by Sanders at 15, Harris at 11 in a bit of surprise, Warren at 10, Buttigieg at 6, O'Rourke at 4, and the rest of the pack at 3 or lower.

The HIll/HarrisX, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden at 33, followed by Sanders at 14, Warren at 8, Harris at 6, Buttigieg at 6, O'Rourke at 5, and the rest of the pack at 3 or lower.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

The Top Six

• Biden -- 34.8 % 
• Sanders -- 17.8 %
• Warren -- 8.9 %
• Harris -- 7.1 %
• Buttigieg -- 5.6 %
• O'Rourke -- 4.3 %
  

The Middle of The Pack

• Booker -- 2.6 %
• Klobucher -- 1.8 %
• Castro -- 1.1 %
• Yang -- 1.1 %

Still In The Race

• Gillibrand -- 0.8 %
• Gabbard -- 0.6 %
• Ryan -- 0.6 %
• Inslee -- 0.3 %
• Hickenlooper -- 0.2 %

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates did not show in the national polling from this past week.

Here's the full graph of all ranked candidates over the past ten national polls:

And here's the more concise graph of the top six candidates over the past five polls: 

Thanks to suggestions from the politically-savvy folks over at Fark.com for the graphing suggestions (including our even more visually appealing top three graphic at the top of the site).

Two New National Polls, New Poll From Florida

Two new national polls released yesterday, from Quinniapac and the weekly Morning Consult report. In a nutshell, everything seems about the same, with Joe Biden maintaining his double digit lead over Bernie Sanders. 

Quinnipiac University, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden at 35, with Sanders well behind at 16, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 13 (her best showing of the past ten national polls), Kamala Harris at 8, and Pete Buttigieg at 5. The rest of the pack all polled at 3 or lower.

Morning Consult, in a poll of a nearly fifteen thousand likely voters, has Biden at 39 (three points above his rolling average), with Sanders twenty points behind at 19, followed by Warren at 9, Harris at 8, Buttigieg at 6, and Beto O'Rourke at 4. The rest of the pack all polled at 3 or lower.

And for you graph lovers, here's our rolling snapshot of the top six candidates from the five most recent polls (because who doesn't like nice graphs?):

And on the state level, we have a new poll from the mother of all swing states, Florida. 

Florida Atlantic University, in a poll of likely voters, has Biden well ahead of Sanders and Warren, 39-12. And yes, the latter two are tied, with Warren taking a large leap from the early May polling by Tel Opinion Research, doubling her support in less than two weeks. Buttigieg triples his support, moving from 3 to 9, and is followed by Harris at 8 and O'Rourke at 5, an also statistically large jump. 

FLORIDA	05/08/19	05/22/19			AVERAGE
Biden	39	39			39
Sanders	16	12			14
Warren	5	12			8.5
Harris	5	8			6.5
Buttigieg	3	9			6
O'Rourke	1	5			3

And, as always, get the complete list of state-by-state polling on our State Polling Averages page.

New State Polls From Iowa, South Carolina

Sanders ties Biden in Iowa, falls further behind in South Carolina

Two new state polls released today, from Iowa and South Carolina, provide interesting news for the two leading candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In Iowa, Change Research released the results of a four-day poll taken May 15-19 that shows Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders tied for the lead in the bellwether state with 24% of likely voters supporting each. This is the best showing for Sanders since a late March poll from Emerson College had him one point behind a then unannounced Biden, 25-24..

However, when averaging the three most recent polls in Iowa, Biden still holds a seven point lead, 26-19, with Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren trailing behind at 13% and 9.3%, respectively.

IOWA	04/18/19	05/02/19	05/20/19		AVERAGE
Biden	19	35	24		26
Sanders	19	14	24		19
Buttigieg	14	11	14		13
Warren	6	10	12		9.3
Harris	6	5	10		7
O'Rourke	5	3	5		4.3

In South Carolina, however, one of the most important of the Southern states for Democrats with its February 29 primary, a new poll from Crantford Research compiled between May 14-16 shows Sanders falling even further behind Biden, dropping to fifth place behind Kamala Harris, Warren and Buttigieg. Biden was the choice for 42% of likely voters, followed by Harris at 10%, Warren and Buttigieg at 8%, and Sanders with 7%, his lowest showing this year. 

When averaging the three most recent polls in South Carolina, Biden holds a 46-11.3 lead over Sanders, with Harris, Warren and Buttigieg still in single digits.

SOUTH CAROLINA	05/02/19	05/09/19	05/20/19		AVERAGE
Biden	48	48	42		46
Sanders	12	15	7		11.3
Harris	4	10	10		8
Warren	5	8	8		7
Buttigieg	5	8	8		7
Booker	4	4	4		4

Get the complete list of state-by-state polling on our State Polling Averages page.

Biden Maintains Early Lead, De Blasio Enters Race, GOP Challenge To Trump

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With three new polls out this week, the snapshot of the race for the Democratic nomination for President remains mostly unchanged. Joe Biden has dropped down a bit from his low-40's polling numbers of the previous week to various points in the 30's, but still maintains an 18.8 point lead over Bernie Sanders, and a 30 point lead over Elizabeth Warren. 

NEW POLLS THIS WEEK

We have three new national polls this week:

FOX News : Biden 35, Sanders 17, Warren 9, Buttigieg 6, Harris 5, O'Rourke 4, Booker 3, Klobuchar 2, Castro 2, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Inslee 1

Morning Consult : Biden 39, Sanders 19, Warren 8, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 5, Booker 3, Klobuchar 2, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Inslee 1, Gillibrand 1

Emerson : Biden 33, Sanders 25, Warren 10, Harris 10, Buttigieg 8, O'Rourke 3, Castro 2, Gillibrand 2, Booker 1, Klobuchar 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1

We also have new state polls from Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and New Hampshire:

Pennsylvania -- Quinnipiac : Biden 39, Sanders 13, Warren 8, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, Booker 5, O'Rourke 2, Klobuchar 1

South Carolina -- Post and Courier : Biden 46, Sanders 15, Harris 10, Warren 8, Buttigieg 8, Booker 4, O'Rourke 2, Yang 2, Klobuchar 1, Williamson 1

New Hampshire -- Monmouth : Biden 36, Sanders 18, Buttigieg 9, Warren 8, Harris 6, O'Rourke 2, Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Yang 1, Ryan 1, Hickenlooper 1

We are keeping a running tally of the various state polls on our "State Polling Averages" page. To date, only New Hampshire has had more than one poll in the past month, where Biden holds a 4.6 point lead over Sanders, and a 12.6 point over Pete Buttigieg.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

The Top Five

Biden's lead over Sanders has dropped a bit, but he still maintains a near 20 point lead in the race:

• Joe Biden -- 38.6 %
• Bernie Sanders -- 19.8 %
• Elizabeth Warren -- 8.6 %
• Kamala Harris -- 7.2 %
• Pete Buttigieg -- 7 %

The Middle Of The Pack

Here are the candidates who are pulling at or near the margin-of-error:

• Beto O'Rourke -- 3.8 %
• Cory Booker -- 2.4 %
• Amy Klobuchar -- 1.8 %

Still In The Race

Here are the candidates who are polling at or near the one percent mark:

• Julian Castro -- 1 %
• Tulsi Gabbard -- 1 %
• Andrew Yang -- 1 %
• Jay Inslee -- 0.6 %
• Amy Gillibrand -- 0.6 %
• Tim Ryan -- 0.4 %
• John Hickenlooper -- 0.2 %

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates did not show in the national polling from the past week.

CAMPAIGN NEWS & ANALYSIS

New York's Bill de Blasio enters already crowded field

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio entered the 2020 Democratic presidential primary Thursday morning, casting himself as the most accomplished progressive pick in a field of 23 Democratic candidates.

However, even though de Blasio is the first Democrat re-elected to his office in more than three decades, he is deeply unpopular with his fellow New Yorkers, is often savaged by the city’s tabloids, and often picks fights with the media that covers him. While that has seemingly worked for Trump, Democrats in general do not respond well to feuding with the press.

No one is really sure why, other than ego, de Blasio decided to enter the race at such a (relatively) late date. While he is the most visible "anti-Trump" politician in the president's hometown, that doesn't set him apart from the other 22 candidates who also have been clear about the dislike for Trump and his policies from the very start of their respective campaigns.

Even worse for de Blasio, in a poll conducted shortly before his campaign announcement, only 21 percent of New York City Democrats wanted him to run for president, while 73 percent did not. That does not bode well as a starting point for, arguably, the most powerful and influential mayor in the country.

Yes, there is someone running against Trump on the GOP side

While we are obviously devoting our statistical resources to covering the race for the Democratic nomination, we would be remiss to not mention the one semi-serious challenge to President Trump from within his own party: former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld.

Speaking at a rally in New Hampshire over the weekend, Weld appears to be staking out an unusual position for a Republican candidate, noting that the recent spate of abortion laws being passed in states like Alabama has him feeling “terrible”, and declared that abortion is a decision the government should not come anywhere near.

Most political experts believe the only reason Weld is in the race for the GOP nomination is in the hope that if Trump is somehow removed from office, he will become by default the standard bearer for the GOP. However, in the case where Trump somehow is unable or unwilling to run for re-election, more familiar names such as Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, even Nikki Haley would be far more likely to attract the support of a majority of GOP voters.

Even so, it is interesting to see any mainstream Republican publicly stake out a moderate, pro-choice position at a time when the GOP is moving even further to the right, especially when it comes to abortion.

Booker, Gillibrand, Warren unveil abortion rights platform following new laws

Speaking of abortion, several Democratic candidates wasted no time in condemning the recent spate of new state laws that dramatically restrict women’s ability to terminate pregnancies, which has returned the issue of abortion front and center to the political stage.

Cory Booker was among the first of the candidates to react, stating on Wednesday that if he were to be elected president, he would pursue legislation to guarantee abortion rights nationwide, superseding state restrictions, even if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade.

Kirsten Gillibrand promised the same on Thursday, while Elizabeth Warren came forward Friday morning with a more detailed plan, calling for a series of targeted measures designed to safeguard abortion rights.

Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, is tying abortion rights to health care, calling for comprehensive reproductive care, including abortion, in his "Medicare for All" proposal, and has long been a vigorous supporter of choice for women.

Sanders, Warren go after charter, for-profit schools

Aside from abortion, another area where the two parties are almost diametrically opposed to one another is public education, specifically when it comes to charter schools.

Bernie Sanders launched a new plan to overhaul the public education system in the country, calling it the Thurgood Marshall Plan for Public Education. The unveiling of the 10-point plan was timed to the 65th anniversary of the Brown v. Board of Education ruling that racial segregation in public schools was unconstitutional.

The plant would suspend taxpayer funding of new charter schools and ban those that are for-profit, stances that are in direct opposition to the the Trump administration and current education secretary, Betsy DeVos, an advocate for charter schools. DeVos had a difficult time defending her stance in recent Congressional hearings, something that Sanders obviously feels resonates with his supporters and might draw support from moderates.

Nor is Sanders alone in this belief. Elizabeth Warren, a former public school teacher, was quick to agree with Sanders, stating at a rally on Saturday that charter schools are a "real problem" and called for their complete elimination.