AND WE'RE BACK!
Welcome back to MOAM: Politics, where we present an ongoing analysis of polling data and news related to the 2020 Presidential election.
During the run-up to the primaries, we'll be posting weekly on the various polls and using our predicative algorithm (developed and refined during the 2012 and 2016 elections) to handicap the race for the Democratic nomination.
Each week, we'll break down the newest polling data as well as updating our state-by-state polling (as it becomes available). We know we are way far out from the first primaries, but the first debates are just around the corner, and this is a race that is destined to have a level of coverage heretofore unseen in political media.
We are also facing a sea change in polling methodology and accuracy as phone polling has been proven to be ever more inaccurate, online polling still has tremendous statistical flaws, and people are becoming more partisan.
Which all makes it even more interesting for the statistical nerds who love politics, like myself.
THE FIRST POLLING SNAPSHOT
This week is a bit different, as we're basically just getting things into perspective now that Joe Biden finally made his entry into the race official. As it stands today, here is our first national snapshot of the race using our rolling predicative algorithm:
The Top Five
Currently at the head of the pack is:
- Joe Biden -- 35.7 %
- Bernie Sanders -- 18.5 %
- Elizabeth Warren -- 7.8 %
- Kamala Harris -- 7.5 %
- Pete Buttigieg -- 7.5 %
The Middle Of The Park
Here are the candidates who are pulling at or near the margin-of-error:
- Beto O'Rourke -- 4.8 %
- Cory Booker -- 2.7 %
Still In The Race
Here are the candidates who are polling at or near the one percent mark:
- Amy Klobuchar -- 1.7 %
- Andrew Yang -- 1 %
- Tulsi Gabbard -- 0.7 %
- Jay Inslee -- 0.7 %
- Julian Castro -- 0.7 %
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates have yet to show in the national polling from the past week. This will likely change as we get more polling data under our belt and/or candidates face the writing on the wall and drop out.
THE FIRST DEBATE
Right now, with pretty much all the major candidates formally announced, we've moved into the second tier of the race: fundraising and poll pushing, all with the goal of qualifying to get on the stage for the first group of debates.
The first debates are scheduled for June 26 and 27 in Miami, and on July 30 and 31 in Detroit. The Miami debates will be aired by NBC, MSNBC, and Telemundo, while the Detroit debates will be on CNN.
According to DNC rules, there are two ways to qualify: register 1% or more support in three sanctioned polls, or by receiving donations from at least 65,000 unique donors with a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 states.
So who’s already qualified? According to an analysis from FiveThirtyEight, 15 announced candidates have made the cut, all but one via the polling method: Biden, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee, Hickenlooper, Yang, Delaney, and Gabbard.
As you can see, my data does not match up with theirs, but that's primarily because I am just starting with the latest six polls and I am not tracking fundraising.
THE FIRST NATIONAL POLLS
As we start our statistical journey, we are working on the following polls to start the ball rolling:
Saturday, May 4
Harvard-Harris : Biden 44, Sanders 14, Harris 9, Warren 5, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Buttigieg 2, Klobuchar 2
Tuesday, April 30
CNN : Biden 39, Sanders 15, Warren 8, Buttigieg 7, O'Rourke 6, Harris 5, Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Gabbard 2, Yang 1, Inslee 1, Castro 1
Quinnipiac : Biden 38, Warren 12, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 10, Harris 8, O'Rourke 5, Booker 2, Klobuchar 1, Yang 1, Inslee 1, Castro 1
Morning Consult : Biden 36, Sanders 22, Warren 9, Buttigieg 8, Harris 7, O'Rourke 5, Booker 3, Klobuchar 2, Yang 2, Inslee 1, Gabbard 1, Castro 1
Tuesday, April 23
Monmouth : Biden 27, Sanders 20, Buttigieg 8, Harris 8, Warren 6, O'Rourke 4, Booker 2, Klobuchar 1
Morning Consult : Biden 30, Sanders 24, Buttigieg 9, Harris 8, Warren 7, O'Rourke 6, Booker 4, Klobuchar 2, Yang 2, Inslee 1, Gabbard 1, Castro 1
THE FIRST STATE POLLS
We are also keeping tabs on the state-specific polling, as national numbers are less important for delegate count than state numbers (though national numbers can, and do, help a lot with fundraising).
Tuesday, April 30
New Hampshire -- Boston Globe/Suffolk : Biden 20, Buttigieg 12, Sanders 12, Warren 8, Harris 6, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Klobuchar 1, Yang 1, Gabbard 1
Monday, April 29
Texas -- Emerson : Biden 23, O'Rourke 22, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 8, Warren 7, Castro 4, Harris 3, Klobuchar 3, Yang 3, Booker 1, Gillibrand 1, Hickenlooper 1
Monday, April 22
Iowa -- Gravis : Biden 19, Sanders 19, Buttigieg 14, Harris 6, Warren 6, O'Rourke 5, Booker 4, Klobuchar 4, Delaney 2, Gillibrand 1, Yang 1
New Hampshire -- UNH : Sanders 30, Biden 18, Buttigieg 15, Warren 5, Harris 4, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Klobuchar 2, Yang 2, Ryan 2, Gabbard 1, Gillibrand 1
And with that, I'd like to once again welcome everyone back. We'll be updating weekly (generally on Saturday) until we get to the party conventions, when we will switch over to daily coverage of the presidential matchup and the general election.
Gas up the tank and grab you some snacks, it's going to be a long ride.
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