Biden Improves Strong Position, Candidates React Differently

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With three new polls out this week, the snapshot of the race for the Democratic nomination for President remains virtually unchanged. Joe Biden has maintained his strong lead in the polling, upping his average by a full five points, now leading Bernie Sanders by just over 21 points.

NEW POLLS THIS WEEK

We have three new national polls this week:

Monmouth : Biden 36, Sanders 18, Buttigieg 9, Warren 8, Harris 6, O'Rourke 2, Booker 2, Klobuchar 2, Yang 1, Ryan 1, Hickenlooper 1

Morning Consult : Biden 40, Sanders 19, Warren 8, Harris 7, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 5, Booker 3, Klobuchar 2, Gabbard 1, Castro 1, Yang 1, Ryan 1

The Hill/Harris : Biden 46, Sanders 14, Buttigieg 8, Warren 7, Harris 6, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Gabbard 1, Castro 1, Yang 1, Ryan 1, Inslee 1

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

The Top Five

Biden opens up his largest lead to date over Bernie Sanders and the rest of the pack:

• Joe Biden -- 40.7 %
• Bernie Sanders -- 19.4 %
• Elizabeth Warren -- 7.6 %
• Kamala Harris -- 7 %
• Pete Buttigieg -- 6.8 %

The Middle Of The Pack

Here are the candidates who are pulling at or near the margin-of-error:

• Beto O'Rourke -- 3.4 %
• Cory Booker -- 2.6 %
• Amy Klobuchar -- 2 %

Still In The Race

Here are the candidates who are polling at or near the one percent mark:

• Andrew Yang -- 1 %
• Julian Castro -- 0.6 %
• Tulsi Gabbard -- 0.6 %
• Tim Ryan -- 0.6 %
• Jay Inslee -- 0.4 %
• John Hickenlooper -- 0.4 %

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates did not show in the national polling from the past week

CAMPAIGN NEWS & ANALYSIS

The reaction to Biden's early dominance

After leading the polls for months prior to his entry into the race, former Vice President Joe Biden finally jumped into the field officially two weeks ago and has seen his polling numbers improve. This has caused some expected consternation among his rivals for the nomination, who have reacted in one of three ways: attack, retool, or ignore.

After coming in second to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Bernie Sanders and his supporters felt that this time around he would be the defacto front-runner and would lead the party progressively left. Biden, who is the face and embodiment of the moderate, pragmatic wing of the party, has up-ended that belief. Sanders has responded by going on the offensive, attacking him on issues such as climate change, that he can appeal better to Trump's working class voters, and going after Biden's voting record during campaign appearances in Iowa.

Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, have taken the retooling route. Harris, coming off a very strong questioning of Attorney General William Barr during his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, has pivoted her campaign to be more critical of Trump and his administration. O'Rouke, who started strong and then all but disappeared from national media, is planning a "reintroduction" in advance of next month's first major debates, with a number of high-profile media appearances in a effort to recover his early momentum.

The rest of the pack seems content with their various campaign plans and strategies and are hoping for a strong showing during the upcoming debates next month in Miami. 

Pragmatism vs Progressivism  

The core question facing Democratic voters this time around is which is more important to them: beating Trump at any cost, or only supporting a candidate they agree with? 

In the early stages of the campaign season, the media consensus was that progressivism was going to be the key for voters, and as such a wave of fresh faces jumped in the race all trying to out-progressive each other, following the lead of established progressive candidates Sanders and Warren.

Then Biden jumped into the race, immediately taking a commanding lead, and suddenly the focus of the media is on the "electability issue". Because, it turns out that while progressive candidates and issues have dominated the news cycles, the majority of Democratic voters are more concerned with removing Trump from office than picking "the correct candidate." 

This is, however, not a new debate within the Democratic Party, which has been fighting an internal battle between pragmatism and progressivism for over fifty years. With Trump facing disapproval numbers that have been consistently underwater and a palpable anger amongst Democratic voters towards him and his policies, the early money and polling indicates that pragmatism will win out. 

Can opioids be a winning campaign issue?

The opioid epidemic has killed tens of thousands of people and has become a national health emergency. Elizabeth Warren believes forcefully address the issue could be an effective strategy to flip Trump supporters, especially is states hard hit by the epidemic, such as West Virginia. She has been campaigning in the state, which overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2016, focusing of "Failed promises" such as fighting the opioid crisis and bringing coal jobs back to the state.

Part of Warren's strategy is the belief that a strong Democratic candidate can appeal to Trump voters and is an effective plan to regain the White House. On the opposite side, 73% of registered Republicans approve of the President, with over half strongly in support. And that has maintained reasonably steady for the past year, which makes Warren's apparent strategy a bit suspect.