Top Three Hold Steady, Harris Falters Slightly

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

The second Democratic debate is just around the corner, and the stage has been set for who is in and what night they will appear. In all, 21 candidates met the very generous qualifying standards set by the Democratic National Committee, but only 20 made the cut for the Detroit debates.

This time around, the DNC made an extra effort to avoid placing the top-tier candidates all on the same night, so each night is more evenly balanced between front-runners and the rest of the pack. The big highlights are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on night one with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on night two. 

And while this seems more balanced, it has been noted by many that the racial balance did not play out in the DNC's favor, especially on night one where there will only be Caucasian candidates on the stage. However, the first night will also feature Marianne Williamson, so at least we'll have the most unintentionally entertaining candidate in the race to look forward to. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

We have five new national polls this week from HarrisX, Morning Consult, Survey Monkey, YouGov, and a second from HarrisX. The top three basically held steady, while Harris dropped a bit back from her high last week. It's not likely we'll see much movement in the polls until after the next debates at the end of the month, barring an unforced foot-in-mouth mistake by one of the top-tier candidates.

The Top Four

• Biden -- 26.5 % (up 0.8 %)
• Sanders -- 14.6 % (no change)
• Warren -- 14.5 % (down 0.5 %)
• Harris -- 12.7 % (down 1.6 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.7 % (up 0.2 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.9 % (up 0.4 %)
• Booker -- 2 % (up 0.3 %)
• Castro -- 1.2 % (down 0.2 %)
• Yang -- 1.3 % (down 0.1 %)
• Klobuchar -- 1 % (down 0.1 %)
• Gabbard -- 1 % (up 0.2 %)
  

Outside The Polling

• All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from this past week
  

NEW STATE POLLS

We also have ten new state polls this week, including three from California, two from New Hampshire, one each from Mississippi and Alabama, and our first polls from Colorado, Georgia, and Missouri. You can see all the state polls on our State Polling Averages page.

The big news this week are the new polls in California, which has taken on an outsize importance in the race for the nomination since it moved up its primary date. The result of all three has the race all but tied between the top four candidates -- Harris, Warren, Biden, and Sanders -- who are separated by just four points. Basically within the margin of error. 

And in New Hampshire, another historically important state with it's early primary, Biden holds on to a slim lead over Warren, with Sanders and Harris not far behind. Which is a surprising for Sanders supporters, since he was so dominant in the state just four years ago. 

Warren Gathers Momentum As Biden, Sanders Stay Flat

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With the next major Democratic debate just a bit over two weeks away, each of the announced candidates are trying to best position themselves as someone to be taken seriously. Which for all but the top six candidates means that time is fast running out.

The main story this week is the continued rise of Elizabeth Warren, who now takes over second place in our polling average, moving ahead of Bernie Sanders (who is virtually tied with Kamala Harris) and just under 11 points behind Joe Biden, whose support continues to drop.

Another main story this past week the announcements of each candidates second quarter fundraising. Pete Buttigieg led the Democratic pack with $24.8 million (from 294,000 donors), followed by Biden with $21.5 million, Warren with $19.1 million, Sanders with $18 million, and Harris with nearly $12 million. 

In contrast, President Trump and his committees raised $54 million, while the RNC (which is working hand-in-hand with the Trump re-election campaign) raised another $51 million.

And finally, we have our first official drop-out in the person of Rep. Eric Swalwell who never once broke the 1% barrier in our polling, followed almost immediately by the latest official entrant into the race in the person of billionaire Tom Steyer, whose main claim to fame has been his tireless beating the impeachment drum against Trump.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

We have four new national polls this week from NBC News/Wall St. Journal, YouGov, Emerson College, and Morning Consult. And the result of these new polls, combined with our ten poll rolling average, shows the race for the race tightening up quite a bit amongst the top four candidates while they continue to widen their lead from the rest of the pack. 

The Top Four

• Biden -- 25.7 % (down 0.6 %)
• Warren -- 15 % (up 1.6 %)
• Sanders -- 14.6 % (down 0.2 %)
• Harris -- 14.3 % (up 0.2 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.5 % (up 0.6 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.5 % (up 0.1 %)
• Booker -- 1.7 % (down 0.5 %)
• Castro -- 1.4 % (down 0.3 %)
• Yang -- 1.4 % (up 0.3 %)
• Klobuchar -- 1.1 % (down 0.1 %)
  

Outside The Polling

• All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from this past week.

NEW STATE POLLS

We also have five new state polls this week, one from Iowa, and two each from New Hampshire and South Carolina. And each state tells a very different story.

In Iowa, a poll of likely voters by Change Research, has up-ended the rankings and turned the state into a five-way race with less than seven points separating top (Biden at 19%) from bottom (Sanders at 12.3%). Even more interesting was the surge in the state by Pete Buttigieg, who's already been buoyed this week with his excellent fundraising numbers. 

Meanwhile in New Hampshire, two different polls of likely voters from Change Research (conducted over different time spans in the past week), show Sanders and Warren taking over the top two spots from a faltering Biden with Buttigieg and Harris not too far behind. In one poll, Sanders has a two-point lead over Warran, while the most recent poll has Warren with a two-point lead over Sanders. 

South Carolina, however, continues to be very good news for Biden, with a pair of polls of likely voters from Fox News and Change Research showing the former Vice President maintaining a very strong lead, more than doubling his support over the second-place Sanders (who, it should be mentioned, is just barely ahead of a surging Harris). 

THE NEXT DEBATES

As we get ready for the second round of debates, scheduled to take place in Detroit on July 30 and 31. there’s no way to know if they will be as significant as the first. As New York Magazine points out, TV audience size will likely be smaller than the initial debates, making it even harder for second-tier candidates to stand out. 

Among the differences between the first and second round of debates is the makeup of the qualifying candidates. With Eric Swalwell dropping out, his place on the stage will likely be taken from Steve Bullock. Seth Moulton, Wayne Messam, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, Bill de Blasio and Michael Bennet will all make last-minute pushes to get that 20th (and last) spot on the stage.

So don't be surprised if a little-known candidate suddenly grabs the news cycle for a moment in the next two weeks. Each of them know the need to do something to gather attention, and this may be the last chance the vast majority of them have to get any notice.