Top Three Hold Steady, Harris Falters Slightly

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

The second Democratic debate is just around the corner, and the stage has been set for who is in and what night they will appear. In all, 21 candidates met the very generous qualifying standards set by the Democratic National Committee, but only 20 made the cut for the Detroit debates.

This time around, the DNC made an extra effort to avoid placing the top-tier candidates all on the same night, so each night is more evenly balanced between front-runners and the rest of the pack. The big highlights are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on night one with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on night two. 

And while this seems more balanced, it has been noted by many that the racial balance did not play out in the DNC's favor, especially on night one where there will only be Caucasian candidates on the stage. However, the first night will also feature Marianne Williamson, so at least we'll have the most unintentionally entertaining candidate in the race to look forward to. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

We have five new national polls this week from HarrisX, Morning Consult, Survey Monkey, YouGov, and a second from HarrisX. The top three basically held steady, while Harris dropped a bit back from her high last week. It's not likely we'll see much movement in the polls until after the next debates at the end of the month, barring an unforced foot-in-mouth mistake by one of the top-tier candidates.

The Top Four

• Biden -- 26.5 % (up 0.8 %)
• Sanders -- 14.6 % (no change)
• Warren -- 14.5 % (down 0.5 %)
• Harris -- 12.7 % (down 1.6 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.7 % (up 0.2 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.9 % (up 0.4 %)
• Booker -- 2 % (up 0.3 %)
• Castro -- 1.2 % (down 0.2 %)
• Yang -- 1.3 % (down 0.1 %)
• Klobuchar -- 1 % (down 0.1 %)
• Gabbard -- 1 % (up 0.2 %)
  

Outside The Polling

• All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from this past week
  

NEW STATE POLLS

We also have ten new state polls this week, including three from California, two from New Hampshire, one each from Mississippi and Alabama, and our first polls from Colorado, Georgia, and Missouri. You can see all the state polls on our State Polling Averages page.

The big news this week are the new polls in California, which has taken on an outsize importance in the race for the nomination since it moved up its primary date. The result of all three has the race all but tied between the top four candidates -- Harris, Warren, Biden, and Sanders -- who are separated by just four points. Basically within the margin of error. 

And in New Hampshire, another historically important state with it's early primary, Biden holds on to a slim lead over Warren, with Sanders and Harris not far behind. Which is a surprising for Sanders supporters, since he was so dominant in the state just four years ago.