WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
With a whole mess of new polls taken since the first Democratic debates, we have been able to create a new baseline using the ten most recent polls, compared the ten pre-debate polls to get a clearer picture of how the race has changed.
The main news has been the ascendancy of Kamala Harris. While Elizabeth Warren had the first night mostly to herself, and didn't hurt herself any in the polling, on the second night Harris used a perfectly planned and executed attack on Joe Biden to create the breakout moment her campaign sorely needed. As a result, there has been a noted post-debate drop of support for Biden (as well as, to a lesser extent, an apparent plateauing of Bernie Sanders).
Also of interest has been the faltering of support for Pete Buttigieg, who has been dealing with racial unrest in his home city, a drop in support for Beto O'Rourke, and the very limited response to what nearly everyone thought was a very good debate performance by Julian Castro.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
We have ten new national polls were are using in our tracking: YouGov, Ipsos, YouGov Blue, HarrisX, ABC News/Washington Post, Quinniapiac University, HarrisX, CNN/SSRS, Morning Consult, and Harris Interactive.
As it stands now, with 23 (at least) "serious" candidates still in the running, we've decided to winnow down our rankings to those that have polled an average of more than 1% over the past ten polls. Which means we are now down to the top ten.
The Top Four
- Biden -- 26.3 % (down 5.4 %)
- Sanders -- 14.8 % (down 1.1 %)
- Harris -- 14.1 % (up 10 %)
- Warren -- 13.4 % (up 1.3 %)
The Rest Of The Pack
- Buttigieg -- 4.9 % (down 2.8 %)
- O'Rourke -- 2.4 % (down 1.9 %)
- Booker -- 2.2 % (down 0.1 %)
- Castro -- 1.7 % (up 1 %)
- Klobuchar -- 1.2 % (up 0.1 %)
- Yang -- 1.1 % (no change)
Outside The Polling
- All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from this past week.
NEW STATE POLLS
We also have a total of eight new state polls this week, including three from Iowa and first polls from Maine and Mississippi.
In Iowa, the polls from Binder Research, Suffolk University, and Change Research, pretty much mirror the changes in the national race. Biden still maintains a lead, but only 5 points ahead of Warren, who is just barely ahead of Sanders, Harris, and Buttigieg.
In New Hampshire, a Change Research poll of likely voters actually gives Sanders the lead over Biden and Warren, but the polling average still has Biden in lead. How long he can hold that lead will be interesting to watch.
In South Carolina, however, a Change Research poll of likely voters has Biden maintaining his quite comfortable lead over the rest of the pack. The same can be said of Florida, where St. Pete Polls has Biden holding a dominant lead over Warren and Sanders.
And new to the state polling page this week are Maine (which Sanders handily won in 2016) and Mississippi (which Clinton thoroughly dominated in 2016). In Maine, in a poll of registered voters by Gravis Marketing, Biden lead Warren 25-17, with Sanders just behind at 15. While over in Mississippi, a poll of likely voters by Chism Strategies, has Biden absolutely dominating the field with 50% support and everyone else in single digits.
IN SUMMARY
A lot has changed in the past two weeks in the political narrative -- "Harris Up, Biden Down, Sanders Flat, What's Up With Mayor Pete, Can Warren Keep Building" -- but as far as polling goes, it's still obviously Joe Biden's race to lose. That, one debate showed both the depth of the field and the weakness of the former Vice President. The next round of debates at the end of the month in Detroit should go a long way to shape up the race by answering three simple questions: 1) Can Biden reclaim his early momentum, 2) Can Harris maintain her surge, and 3) How many of the 1% support candidates will see the big bold writing on the wall and end their campaigns?
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