WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
Well, there are still technically 20+ candidates still in the running for the Democratic nomination for President, but the reality is that we are now down to just seven candidates who have been able to maintain a 2% or higher polling average in the past ten national polls.
So for our purposes, we've culled out list down to those seven, although a good poll here are there could bring some back from below cut-off line. We've furthered refined the rankings to the top three candidates who are polling double digits, followed by the remaining candidates.
As noted above, we have a fresh batch of for new polls since our last update, from HarrisX, YouGov, CNN, and Morning Consult.
The Top Three
- Biden -- 28 % (down 0.7 %)
- Sanders -- 17.4 % (up 1.1 %)
- Warren -- 15.3 % (down 1.8 %)
The Rest Of The Pack
- Harris -- 7.7 % (down 0.6 %)
- Buttigieg -- 5 % (down 0.3 %)
- O'Rourke -- 2.8 % (up 0.6 %)
- Booker -- 2.3 % (no change)
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
We have redone our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.
Of the "first four", we have one new poll from Nevada, where Biden maintains his strong lead in the Sagebrush State. Elsewhere, we have one other new poll, this one from Colorado where only four points separate Biden, Sanders, and Warren. Expect to see a good bit of attention paid to the Centennial State over the next year or so.
Next weekend is a holiday, so our next update won't be until Saturday, September 7th. Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day Weekend.
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
Well, there are still technically 20+ candidates still in the running for the Democratic nomination for President, but the reality is that we are now down to nine candidates who have been able to maintain a 1% or higher polling average so far this month.
So for our purposes, we've culled out list down to nine, although a good poll here are there could bring some back from below cut-off line. We've furthered refined the rankings to the top three candidates who are polling double digits, and the remaining six candidates.
Currently, nine candidates have qualified for the next debate, scheduled for September 12 & 13 in Houston: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Andrew Yang. Which not so coincidentally, are the same nine candidates represented in our polling aggregate.
The big news this week is the surging candidacy of Elizabeth Warren. She makes, by far, the biggest jump in our polling aggregate, with a 5.6% increase to take an almost one point lead over Bernie Sanders for the second place slot, though still trailing front-runner Joe Biden by just over ten points.
Biden's lead could have been wider, but he has started tripping over his longtime political Achilles heel: his propensity for gaffes. A series of misspeaks and missteps has led to a three point drop in the polls, and continues a slow degradation of his early support. He is especially starting to show signs of vulnerability in the early primary/caucus states, as we'll go over in greater detail below.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
We have a fresh batch of ten new polls since our last update, from HarrisX, Fox News, YouGov, Morning Consult, SurveyUSA, Ipsos, Quinnipiac University, Change Research, Public Policy Polling, and Pew Research Center.
The Top Three
- Biden -- 38.7 (down 3 %)
- Warren -- 17.1 % (up 5.6 %)
- Sanders -- 16.3 % (down 0.6 %)
The Rest Of The Pack
- Harris -- 8.3 % (up 1.1 %)
- Buttigieg -- 5.3 % (down 0.7 %)
- Booker -- 2.3 % (down 0.2 %)
- O'Rourke -- 2.2 % (down 0.5 %)
- Yang -- 1.6 % (up 0.3 %)
- Klobuchar -- 1.2 % (up 0.2 %)
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
NEW STATE POLLS
We have redone our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.
Of the "first four", we have two new polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and one each in Nevada and South Carolina. And the results are...interesting, to sat the least.
In Iowa, where practically every candidate who was not on mandatory military duty was at the Iowa State Fair this past week, Biden and Warren are virtually tied at the top. Warren has long made Iowa a campaign priority, and her groundwork is paying off. Harris, Buttigieg, and Sanders are all polling in double digits as well, so expect to see a LOT more visits to the corn belt over the next six months.
In New Hampshire, which has been the focus of Sanders' campaign, the news is mixed for the Vermont Senator. He is still in second place, four points behind Biden and barely two points ahead of Warren, but both of the other two main candidates have lost a lot of momentum while Sanders appears to be rebuilding his early support in the state.
As for Nevada, we have our first poll in nearly two months, and it fairly well mirrors the national polling. The aggregate is a bit misleading, as we've only had four polls in total, as it appears the real story is shaping up to be a three-way race between Biden, Sanders, and Warren.
And in South Carolina, Biden holds on to a very comfortable lead, with Sanders, Harris, and Warren jockeying for a distant second-place finish.
Among the "Super Tuesday" states, we have new polls in California (Harris, Biden, and Warren virtually tied), North Carolina (Biden strong lead), Oklahoma (Biden well ahead), and Texas (Biden and O'Rourke at the top).
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
The second Democratic debates were held this past week in Detroit with lots of snipping but little real game-changing moments when all was said and done. And there was a lot more said than done, to quote a very old joke.
As it stands now, with the ten most recent polls split almost evenly between pre- and post-debate results, the main narrative is that Joe Biden is still the candidate to beat with nearly twice as much support as either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, who are virtually tied for second place.
As for Kamala Harris, her polling bounce from the first debate has dissipated, and she did not do much to change that narrative in the second debates. Likewise, the media darling of two months ago Pete Buttigieg has continue to fall in the polling, and looks to be trying for a cabinet position or possibly a run for Governor of Indiana.
And speaking of debates, the next round is scheduled for September 12 & 13 in Houston. The Democratic National Committee has increased the minimum threshold to qualify -- 2% national polling average and contributions from at least 130,000 individual donors -- which means the days of 20 candidates vying for attention are all but assuredly passed.
As of this update, the candidates who have qualified for the next debates are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke and Klobucher.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
We have a fresh batch of ten new polls since our last update, just about evenly split between pre- and post-debate.
The Top Four
- Biden -- 31.7 (up 5.2 %)
- Sanders -- 16.9 % (up 2.3 %)
- Warren -- 11.5 % (down 3 %)
- Harris -- 9.4 % (down 3.3 %)
The Rest Of The Pack
- Buttigieg -- 4.6 % (down 1.1 %)
- O'Rourke -- 2.7 % (down 0.2 %)
- Booker -- 2.5 % (up 0.5 %)
- Yang -- 1.3 % (no change)
- Castro -- 1.2 % (no change)
- Gabbard -- 1 % (no change)
- Klobuchar -- 1 % (no change)
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from this past week.
NEW STATE POLLS
We have redone our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.
The main takeaway is to see how close both Iowa and New Hampshire are, with less than ten points separating the top four candidates. Meanwhile, Nevada hasn't polled in nearly two months, while South Carolina likes like it's solidly for Biden.
As for Super Tuesday, while voters in 13 states head to the polls, the main focus will be on the two big prizes: California and Texas. And the polling there has good news for Kamala Harris (leading in her home state of California) and Beto O'Rourke (second place in Texas, though the most recent poll gives him a substantial lead over Biden).
