WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
The second Democratic debates were held this past week in Detroit with lots of snipping but little real game-changing moments when all was said and done. And there was a lot more said than done, to quote a very old joke.
As it stands now, with the ten most recent polls split almost evenly between pre- and post-debate results, the main narrative is that Joe Biden is still the candidate to beat with nearly twice as much support as either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, who are virtually tied for second place.
As for Kamala Harris, her polling bounce from the first debate has dissipated, and she did not do much to change that narrative in the second debates. Likewise, the media darling of two months ago Pete Buttigieg has continue to fall in the polling, and looks to be trying for a cabinet position or possibly a run for Governor of Indiana.
And speaking of debates, the next round is scheduled for September 12 & 13 in Houston. The Democratic National Committee has increased the minimum threshold to qualify -- 2% national polling average and contributions from at least 130,000 individual donors -- which means the days of 20 candidates vying for attention are all but assuredly passed.
As of this update, the candidates who have qualified for the next debates are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke and Klobucher.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
We have a fresh batch of ten new polls since our last update, just about evenly split between pre- and post-debate.
The Top Four
- Biden -- 31.7 (up 5.2 %)
- Sanders -- 16.9 % (up 2.3 %)
- Warren -- 11.5 % (down 3 %)
- Harris -- 9.4 % (down 3.3 %)
The Rest Of The Pack
- Buttigieg -- 4.6 % (down 1.1 %)
- O'Rourke -- 2.7 % (down 0.2 %)
- Booker -- 2.5 % (up 0.5 %)
- Yang -- 1.3 % (no change)
- Castro -- 1.2 % (no change)
- Gabbard -- 1 % (no change)
- Klobuchar -- 1 % (no change)
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from this past week.
NEW STATE POLLS
We have redone our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.
The main takeaway is to see how close both Iowa and New Hampshire are, with less than ten points separating the top four candidates. Meanwhile, Nevada hasn't polled in nearly two months, while South Carolina likes like it's solidly for Biden.
As for Super Tuesday, while voters in 13 states head to the polls, the main focus will be on the two big prizes: California and Texas. And the polling there has good news for Kamala Harris (leading in her home state of California) and Beto O'Rourke (second place in Texas, though the most recent poll gives him a substantial lead over Biden).
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