And Then There Were Nine

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Well, there are still technically 20+ candidates still in the running for the Democratic nomination for President, but the reality is that we are now down to nine candidates who have been able to maintain a 1% or higher polling average so far this month. 

So for our purposes, we've culled out list down to nine, although a good poll here are there could bring some back from below cut-off line. We've furthered refined the rankings to the top three candidates who are polling double digits, and the remaining six candidates. 

Currently, nine candidates have qualified for the next debate, scheduled for September 12 & 13 in Houston: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Andrew Yang. Which not so coincidentally, are the same nine candidates represented in our polling aggregate. 

The big news this week is the surging candidacy of Elizabeth Warren. She makes, by far, the biggest jump in our polling aggregate, with a 5.6% increase to take an almost one point lead over Bernie Sanders for the second place slot, though still trailing front-runner Joe Biden by just over ten points.

Biden's lead could have been wider, but he has started tripping over his longtime political Achilles heel: his propensity for gaffes. A series of misspeaks and missteps has led to a three point drop in the polls, and continues a slow degradation of his early support. He is especially starting to show signs of vulnerability in the early primary/caucus states, as we'll go over in greater detail below.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

We have a fresh batch of ten new polls since our last update, from HarrisX, Fox News, YouGov, Morning Consult, SurveyUSA, Ipsos, Quinnipiac University, Change Research, Public Policy Polling, and Pew Research Center.

The Top Three

• Biden -- 38.7 (down 3 %)
• Warren -- 17.1 % (up 5.6 %)
• Sanders -- 16.3 % (down 0.6 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Harris -- 8.3 % (up 1.1 %)
• Buttigieg -- 5.3 % (down 0.7 %)
• Booker -- 2.3 % (down 0.2 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.2 % (down 0.5 %)
• Yang -- 1.6 % (up 0.3 %)
• Klobuchar -- 1.2 % (up 0.2 %)

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 1% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

NEW STATE POLLS 

We have redone our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.

Of the "first four", we have two new polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and one each in Nevada and South Carolina. And the results are...interesting, to sat the least.

In Iowa, where practically every candidate who was not on mandatory military duty was at the Iowa State Fair this past week, Biden and Warren are virtually tied at the top. Warren has long made Iowa a campaign priority, and her groundwork is paying off. Harris, Buttigieg, and Sanders are all polling in double digits as well, so expect to see a LOT more visits to the corn belt over the next six months.

In New Hampshire, which has been the focus of Sanders' campaign, the news is mixed for the Vermont Senator. He is still in second place, four points behind Biden and barely two points ahead of Warren, but both of the other two main candidates have lost a lot of momentum while Sanders appears to be rebuilding his early support in the state.

As for Nevada, we have our first poll in nearly two months, and it fairly well mirrors the national polling. The aggregate is a bit misleading, as we've only had four polls in total, as it appears the real story is shaping up to be a three-way race between Biden, Sanders, and Warren.

And in South Carolina, Biden holds on to a very comfortable lead, with Sanders, Harris, and Warren jockeying for a distant second-place finish.

Among the "Super Tuesday" states, we have new polls in California (Harris, Biden, and Warren virtually tied), North Carolina (Biden strong lead), Oklahoma (Biden well ahead), and Texas (Biden and O'Rourke at the top).