Warren Continues To Climb As Impeachment Fever Boils Over

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

 

It's been a very interesting week, politically speaking. The news has been utterly dominated by the House opening official impeachment inquiries against President Trump over the Ukraine situation. It really doesn't help the President that his (changing) explanations for the scandal do not add up, as Slate explains well. 

Nor has it helped Joe Biden's campaign, which has already been seeing widening cracks in support for the front-runner, to now have to spend nearly all their time fielding questions about Hunter Biden instead of focusing on regaining their campaign momentum.

 

Politically speaking, however, the timing couldn't have been better for Elizabeth Warren. Her methodical, ground-up campaign has been focusing on raising her "likability" factor (an aspect that was a major liability for Hillary Clinton last time around) as well as connecting her as directly as possible to individual voters (the "selfie" lines are a prime example of this strategy). And it has been paying off with steadily increasing numbers both nationally -- where she is a fairly solid second -- and in the "first four" states where she is either first or second.

Of the remaining five that are currently polling at over two percent, there is little change except for Cory Booker, who is now in danger of falling below the 2% threshold. Which makes the next debate even more of a "make of break" moment for the second (and third) tier candidates. Twelve of whom have qualified, even with the (slightly) stricter standards set by the DNC. Which should make for a rather crowded stage, as even with two more candidates than the last debate, the DNC has decided to keep it all on one night.

 

And now all the candidates have to consider that they may not be running against Donald Trump. And there is already a lot of speculation of who the GOP would nominate of Trump was removed from office. Would it be President Mike Pence (assuming he does not get impeached as well, which is far from uncertain), one of the three announced candidates (Bill Weld, Joe Walsh, or Mark Sanford), or would it be someone else who stepped in at the last minute, such as Mitt Romney, Bob Corker, or even Tucker Carlson?
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Speaking of the "big three", it's been an interesting week with a large batch of new polls. Biden remains ten points out in front, while Warren leapfrogs Sanders to move back into second place in the polling average. 

 

The Top Three

• Biden -- 27.8 % (down 0.5 %)
• Warren -- 19.8 % (up 1.2 %)
• Sanders -- 16.7 % (no change)
   

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.3 % (no change)
• Harris -- 5.2 % (no change)
• Yang -- 2.76 % (down 0.1 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.4 % (down 0.3 %) 
• Booker -- 2.1 % (down 0.6 %)

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Of the "first four", we have new polls in each state -- including three from New Hampshire -- and as we mentioned above, there is plenty of good news for Warren. She has taken a slim lead in New Hampshire and is in second place in the other three states with her support growing in each one. 

Biden still holds a very commanding lead in South Carolina and a near ten point lead in Nevada, but his numbers are dropping steadily in both those states. As for Bernie Sanders, while he's remaining competitive statistically in the five-poll averages, his numbers are definitely trending in the wrong direction at the same time Warren's are moving up, which does not bode well for his chances.

 

As for the "Super Tuesday" states, we have new polls from California -- where the top three remain within the margin of error of each other -- and a rare poll from Virginia. This is only the third poll since April (and the first in three months), and while Biden still has a comfortable lead, he's lost nearly half his support from April till now. As has Sanders. 

UPDATED POLLING CHART

Based on feedback we've received, we've further modified our polling chart to include the weekly averages for the top candidates going back five weeks, instead of the past ten weeks. It was felt this was a more useful and more concise snapshot of the current status of the various campaigns.

It Now Appears To Be A Three-Person Race For The Democrats

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

 

The closer we get to the first primaries and caucuses, the more apparent it is that the window is closing fast on pretty much all but the top-three candidates. How soon the second-tier candidates realize their quest for the White House has more in common with Don Quixote than a '92 Bill Clinton or a '76 Jimmy Carter is a question that will remain in the forefront of the political mediasphere for as long as anyone other than Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders stays in the race.

 

That said, we do have one less official candidate this week, as Bill de Blasio saw the handwriting on the wall a bit earlier than most and has gone back to being a small town mayor. He joins fellow New Yorker Kristen Gillibrand, who dropped out two weeks ago, along with former candidates Seth Moulton, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, Mike Gavel, and Eric Swalwell. 

 

For candidates such as Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, who enjoyed brief moments of higher-than-average popularity only to see their numbers drop back down to earth, the question they have to ask is if there's a way to recapture that early momentum. For the rest of the remaining field, they have to ask what they are hoping to accomplish for staying in the race. 

 

It's long been assumed that many low-polling candidates stay in to increase their public stature for either a future run at higher office or to be considered for a VP or cabinet slot. Another aspect is a quirk in finance law that allows money raised by a presidential candidate to be used for other races, such as a run for Senate or Governor. That may be what several of the candidates are doing, using their national exposure as a presidential candidate to pad their war chest for a run at a slightly less higher office.

 

And while the old adage "all publicity is good publicity" may work in the advertising field, it generally does not work well in politics. Andrew Yang, who has seen his polling numbers start clicking up the past month, is facing blowback for a claim that he once fired a woman who had gotten married over concerns she wouldn't work as hard. Likewise, Beto O'Rourke has raised the ire of not just conservatives but many liberals as well with his public embrace of a mandatory gun buyback program. It's generally good to get in the news when you're a second-tier candidate, but sometimes it works against you. . 

 

Which brings us to the "big three". Of them, Democratic voters have three fairly distinct choices: the traditional moderate-liberal who believes he can make the system work again in Joe Biden, the progressive-liberal who wants to upend the entire system and build something new and more "equitable" in Elizabeth Warren, and the liberal-socialist who wants to spread the wealth to benefit all and is mostly distrusting of all institutions in Bernie Sanders.

So who will emerge from this group and grab the brass ring? Naturally, we don't have a reliable crystal ball (though we do have a Magic 8-Ball), so we have to read the polling tea leaves a bit. And one way is to look at "ranked-choice" polling, where voters rank their first, second, third, etc. choices. This past week, both YouGov and FairVote conducted just such a poll … and the eventual winner was Elizabeth Warren.
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Speaking of the "big three", it's been an interesting week with a large batch of new polls. Biden remains ten points out in front, while Warren leapfrogs Sanders to move back into second place in the polling average. 

 

The Top Three

• Biden -- 28.3 % (up 0.8 %)
• Warren -- 18.6 % (up 3.7 %)
• Sanders -- 16.7 % (down 1 %)
   

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.3 % (up 1.3 %)
• Harris -- 5.2 % (down 1.1 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.7 % (down 0.2 %) 
• Yang -- 2.7 % (up 0.3 %)
• Booker -- 2.7 % (up 0.4 %)

 

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

 

A NEW POLLING CHART

 

The polling charts we've been using, which tracked the most recent ten poll results for each of the candidates, appears to have been a bit too confusing and/or unwieldy for some readers, so we've switched to a longer-term chart which tracks the weekly polling average for each candidate going back over the past ten updates. Hopefully this will give a better "at-a-glance" look at how the race is shaping up.

 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Of the "first four", we have two new polls from Iowa that show Biden and Warren in a virtual tie, with Sanders and Buttigieg about ten points behind. It's obvious that Warren is putting a lot of focus and effort on Iowa, which seems to paying off in the polls and in person. Kamala Harris, who is a distant fifth in the polling average, has decided to "move" to Iowa and appears to be putting all her eggs in a corn-made basket. 

 

Of the Super Tuesday states, we have five new polls from California which shows the state is completely up for grabs between the top three candidates. We also have a new poll from Texas where Biden maintains a ten-point lead over a crowded field of three (O'Rourke, Warren, and Sanders).

Winner Of The Democratic Debates Is...No One?

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

While there are technically 20+ candidates still in the running for the Democratic nomination for President, and we're tracking them all, we are only focusing on the eight candidates who are currently polling at 2% or higher in our ten poll rolling average.

And of those eight, who had the biggest bounce from this past week's Democratic debate? That would be Bernie Sanders … but he "wins" the bounce award with a bump of just 1.1%. While a lot of people were expecting fireworks between the top three candidates, they are all experienced pros who understand timing and know that now is not the time to get in the ring and grapple.
 

No, that would be the tactic of the bottom half of the ticket, who had mixed results. Beto O'Rourke blunt assertion that was coming after assault rifles led to a modest 0.7% bump and a good number of headlines, while Cory Booker's attempted takedown of Joe Biden with thinly veiled ageism didn't get him any new support (or a drop, either). 

So, with the exception of Elizabeth Warren, who took a noticeable drop (down 3.5% after being up 3.1% the week before), there was overall very little movement in the polling averages pre- and post-debate.
 

What this tells us is three things:

1. There are still a lot of undecided voters out there,
2. Even a smaller stage of ten candidates is still too many for most viewers, 
3. It's still quite far away from the actual primaries and caucuses, and while political media types and pollsters are paying a lot of attention, the majority of voters are not.

What do we make of all this? Simple: Joe Biden remains the frontrunner, with solid support from older, black, and centrist voters (the traditional "core" of the Democratic Party), while Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are staking out the "progressive" side of the Party and are warily circling each other, seeing which one of them will emerge as the leading opposition to Biden.

Of course, it's still just September. A lot could change between now and February. Remember that at this point in the 2016 campaign, Donald Trump was seen more as a sideshow than a serious candidate...and his home address is now 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. in a fairly recognizable white house. 

That said, while we are still paying close attention to Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, and Andrew Yang, the early money on that group is in the "potential running mate / future Cabinet Secretary" category.
 

A NEW POLLING CHART

The polling charts we've been using, which tracked the most recent ten poll results for each of the candidates, appears to have been a bit too confusing and/or unwieldy for some readers, so we've switched to a longer-term chart which tracks the weekly polling average for each candidate going back over the past ten updates. Hopefully this will give a better "at-a-glance" look at how the race is shaping up.

 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

After the Labor Day holiday and the recent Democratic debate, we have a entirely new batch of polls for our ten poll rolling average.

 

The Top Three

• Biden -- 27.5 % (down 1 %)
• Sanders -- 17.7 % (up 1.1 %)
• Warren -- 14.9 % (down 3.5 %)
   

The Rest Of The Pack

• Harris -- 6.3 % (down 0.7 %)
• Buttigieg -- 4 % (down 1.2 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.9 % (up 0.7 %) 
• Yang -- 2.4 % (down 0.1 %)
• Booker -- 2.3 % (no change)

 

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

 

NEW STATE POLLS 

We recently redid our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.

Of the "first four", we have new polls from each, with four alone in New Hampshire. Speaking of which, Bernie Sanders is now in the lead, albeit by just 0.2%. In fact, the "Big Three" are all within the margin-of-error of each other. This one will likely be close all the way up to voting day.

 

As for the other three, Biden and Warren lead in Iowa (with Sanders ticking up strongly), the three are reasonably close in Nevada, and Biden maintains his very strong lead in South Carolina.

 

Of the Super Tuesday states, Biden maintains a good lead in Massachusetts, and with four (!) new polls in Texas, that race is getting a bit more interesting as Warren moves up with native son O'Rourke drops, and both remain nearly nine points behind Biden.