Biden Stays Strong, Warren Eclipses Sanders For Second, Yang Makes A Move

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

While there are technically 20+ candidates still in the running for the Democratic nomination for President, and we're tracking them all, we are only focusing on the eight candidates who are currently polling at 2% or higher in our ten poll rolling average.

And loyal readers will note that we are back up to eight from seven, as Andrew Yang has started to make a bit of a move into national prominence after a well-received performance at the recent CNN Climate Change Town Hall. Sure, most conventional types don't think he should be in the race, but his often counter-mainstream ideas are gaining attention from younger voters who like his outside-the-box thinking.

As for the top three, reports of Joe Biden's imminent demise are, as usual, greatly exaggerated. One outlier poll that showed him ten points behind Elizabeth Warren and trailing Bernie Sanders was just that: an outlier. Yes, we included it in our rolling average, but even so Biden still maintains a ten point lead over Warren overall, not the other way around.

The more interesting news is how Warren is starting to solidify her status as second-in-line over Bernie Sanders, who appears to have reached (and held) his ceiling of support. One sign is that she is getting targeted more from her fellow candidates, even at the same time as she has ramped up her attacks on big industry.

The next big test for all the Democratic candidates will be the next debate, happening this Thursday. The top ten candidates will debate on one stage and will be facing a panel made up of journalists from ABC News and Univision. And ABC announced where each candidate will stand on stage, from left to right: Klobuchar, Booker, Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Harris, Yang, O'Rourke and Castro. This puts Biden right in the center, flanked on either side by Sanders and Warren. 

And while nearly all of our attention has been focused on the Democratic field, there is news from the Republican side. Facing pressure from the White House and Trump's re-election campaign, GOP officials in several states are nixing primaries, even though there are several announced GOP challengers for the nominations. 

Older Republicans remember what happened to President George H.W. Bush when he was challenged on the right by Pat Buchanan and believe that led in part to his re-election loss to Bill Clinton. They want to make sure no such thing happens to President Trump. Though, at least according to recent polling, it doesn't look like Trump is going to have an easy road to a second term, as all five of the top Democratic candidates beat him in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Since we had the Labor Day Weekend off, we now have a entirely new batch of polls for our ten poll rolling average.

The Top Three

• Biden -- 28.5 % (up 0.5 %)
• Warren -- 18.4 % (up 3.1 %)
• Sanders -- 16.6 % (down 0.8 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Harris -- 7 % (down 0.7 %)
• Buttigieg -- 5.2 % (up 0.2 %)
• Yang -- 2.5 % (up 0.8 %)
• Booker -- 2.3 % (no change)
• O'Rourke -- 2.2 % (down 0.4 %) 

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

NEW STATE POLLS 

We recently redid our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.

Of the "first four", we do not have any new polls in the past two weeks, though we expect to see a flurry of them after this week's debate. Elsewhere, we have one new poll from Texas, where the race between Biden and O'Rourke remains very close, with Sanders and Warren battling for third.