Warren Continues To Climb As Impeachment Fever Boils Over

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

 

It's been a very interesting week, politically speaking. The news has been utterly dominated by the House opening official impeachment inquiries against President Trump over the Ukraine situation. It really doesn't help the President that his (changing) explanations for the scandal do not add up, as Slate explains well. 

Nor has it helped Joe Biden's campaign, which has already been seeing widening cracks in support for the front-runner, to now have to spend nearly all their time fielding questions about Hunter Biden instead of focusing on regaining their campaign momentum.

 

Politically speaking, however, the timing couldn't have been better for Elizabeth Warren. Her methodical, ground-up campaign has been focusing on raising her "likability" factor (an aspect that was a major liability for Hillary Clinton last time around) as well as connecting her as directly as possible to individual voters (the "selfie" lines are a prime example of this strategy). And it has been paying off with steadily increasing numbers both nationally -- where she is a fairly solid second -- and in the "first four" states where she is either first or second.

Of the remaining five that are currently polling at over two percent, there is little change except for Cory Booker, who is now in danger of falling below the 2% threshold. Which makes the next debate even more of a "make of break" moment for the second (and third) tier candidates. Twelve of whom have qualified, even with the (slightly) stricter standards set by the DNC. Which should make for a rather crowded stage, as even with two more candidates than the last debate, the DNC has decided to keep it all on one night.

 

And now all the candidates have to consider that they may not be running against Donald Trump. And there is already a lot of speculation of who the GOP would nominate of Trump was removed from office. Would it be President Mike Pence (assuming he does not get impeached as well, which is far from uncertain), one of the three announced candidates (Bill Weld, Joe Walsh, or Mark Sanford), or would it be someone else who stepped in at the last minute, such as Mitt Romney, Bob Corker, or even Tucker Carlson?
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Speaking of the "big three", it's been an interesting week with a large batch of new polls. Biden remains ten points out in front, while Warren leapfrogs Sanders to move back into second place in the polling average. 

 

The Top Three

• Biden -- 27.8 % (down 0.5 %)
• Warren -- 19.8 % (up 1.2 %)
• Sanders -- 16.7 % (no change)
   

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.3 % (no change)
• Harris -- 5.2 % (no change)
• Yang -- 2.76 % (down 0.1 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.4 % (down 0.3 %) 
• Booker -- 2.1 % (down 0.6 %)

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Of the "first four", we have new polls in each state -- including three from New Hampshire -- and as we mentioned above, there is plenty of good news for Warren. She has taken a slim lead in New Hampshire and is in second place in the other three states with her support growing in each one. 

Biden still holds a very commanding lead in South Carolina and a near ten point lead in Nevada, but his numbers are dropping steadily in both those states. As for Bernie Sanders, while he's remaining competitive statistically in the five-poll averages, his numbers are definitely trending in the wrong direction at the same time Warren's are moving up, which does not bode well for his chances.

 

As for the "Super Tuesday" states, we have new polls from California -- where the top three remain within the margin of error of each other -- and a rare poll from Virginia. This is only the third poll since April (and the first in three months), and while Biden still has a comfortable lead, he's lost nearly half his support from April till now. As has Sanders. 

UPDATED POLLING CHART

Based on feedback we've received, we've further modified our polling chart to include the weekly averages for the top candidates going back five weeks, instead of the past ten weeks. It was felt this was a more useful and more concise snapshot of the current status of the various campaigns.