Warrent Continues To Climb, Sanders Falters, Republicans Wonder "What If?"

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

When the election cycle began, most political prognosticators predicted the Democratic primary race would come down to a choice between a centrist Democrat and a progressive Democrat. Which was, after all, a pretty safe prediction to make since the 2016 race had the same result. What makes the current race interesting is having two very strong progressive candidates mixing it up with the main centrist candidate ... who just happens to be a former Vice President for a very popular (among Democrats) President. 

 

Over the past five weeks, however, it appears the progressive voters within the party have been slowly coalescing around their preferred candidate: Elizabeth Warren. Her continued rise in the polls, combined with steadily declining numbers for Bernie Sanders, has now made this a race between Joe Biden and Warren. 

 

At least for the moment. As we all know, things can (and usually do) change quickly. 

Consider that three weeks ago, very few Americans could name the Ukrainian president, much less find the country of a map. Now, Ukraine is dominating the news and shows no sign of fading away as the House continues their impeachment investigation amidst nearly daily bombshells.

 

Which brings us to a question more and more politicos are asking: what happens to the presidential race if Trump isn't the GOP nominee? The question itself is two-fold: 1) who will be the GOP nominee if not for Trump, and 2) how will the Democratic strategies change if Trump is no longer in the race. 

 

As to the first question, one would assume that current Vice-President Mike Pence would be the odds-on favorite, considering he would become President on Trump's removal from office (or resignation). However, Pence may not survive the Ukraine scandal himself, and could be seen as too damaged or corrupted by GOP voters.

 

So who else would the party find acceptable? 

Don't be too surprised if it's former GOP nominee and current Utah Senator Mitt Romney. He's come out quite publicly in opposition to Trump this past week (and has been retaliated at, to no surprise), has been working behind the scenes to support vulnerable GOP senatorial candidates, already has a large financial war chest from his previous campaigns, and could easily raise a lot of money quickly.

 

Other names that could join the fray in a Trump-less race include Bill Weld, Ted Cruz, Michael Bloomberg, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Liz Cheney, Bob Corker, or Nikki Haley. In other words, if you thought the current Democratic field was large, the 2020 race could end up being a LOT more confusing.

 

As to the second question, Trump being removed from office would be a huge blow to the Biden candidacy, since pretty much his entire campaign has been focused on "toss the bum out". Warren and Sanders, on the other hand, have made no bones about their desire to see Trump out of the White House but have also been campaigning on a lot of other issues that are quite popular amongst both progressive and centrist Democratic voters.

 

And strategies will also change drastically depending on who the GOP candidate is. For example, a campaign against Pence would look a lot different than one against Romney and a lot different from one against Nikki Haley. If such a scenario would to happen, it will be absolutely fascinating to see how each of the campaigns adpat and adjust. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Biden and Warren are moving ever closer to each other, while Sanders is now in the no-mans-land between the top tier and the rest of the pack … who are all hoping the next debate will help move them out of single digits. 

 

The Top Two

• Biden -- 27.8 % (up 0.6 %)
• Warren -- 23.6 % (up 1.8 %)

The Lonely Middle

• Sanders -- 15.3 % (down 0.9 %)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.1 % (down 0.3 %)
• Harris -- 4.8 % (down 0.3 %)
• Yang -- 2.7 % (down 0.3 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.3 % (no change)

 

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Of the "first four", we have one new poll in South Carolina where Biden maintains his huge lead over the rest of the pack. One item of note in the poll is that Warren has now passed Sanders for second place in the state.  

As for the "Super Tuesday" states, we have one poll from North Carolina where Biden maintains his lead, but the race is a lot closer between him, Warren, and Sanders than it is just one state south.