WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
First off: if you haven't gotten your flu shot yet, please do so now. Which obliquely explains why we missed our weekly update last weekend.
As for the most recent polling, we have ten new national polls in the past ten days, along with a number of new polls in the first major primary states, which gives us a nice baseline to use to access the current state of the race for the Democratic nomination. In a nutshell: Joe Biden is holding steady as the front-runner, Elizabeth Warren is making state-level gains, Bernie Sanders is still in the thick of things, and, to be blunt, no one else really matters anymore.
It's been six months since Biden made his official entry into the race, which was when we started collecting polling data and setting up our various spreadsheets. In that time, we've had four debates, roughly a thousand national and state polls, and tens of millions of dollars spent on advertising and staffing the various campaigns.
In that time, Biden has maintained a steady lead as front-runner, keeping a base of support in the upper 20's all summer and fall. He's been faced with the Hunter Biden / Ukraine scandal, his all-to-numerous gaffes, and a recent lack of funds which forced him to return to the Super-PAC well … and yet he still leads the pack.
Warren, on the other hand, had been steadily rising in the polls, almost to the point where some media outlets were referring to her as the "co-frontrunner". Which turns out to have been a bit too optimistic, as since the last debate when she was faced with attacks from all sides, she has slipped back down in the polling from her previous bounce. That said, she is leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire and has staffing, organization, and funding on hand to remain a major candidate all through the process.
Sanders has been a bit of enigma. The second-place finisher in 2016 was assumed by many to become the favorite in 2020 … yet has never really risen above his upper-teens level of support in the polls, though he has been his usual money-making machine when it comes to donations. There has been some staffing issues, and while he has seemingly bounced back well from his recent heart attack, there are certainly concerns about his age and long-term health. Even so, his charisma, loyal supporters, and strong cash flow will also allow him to stay in the race for as long as he wants.
As for the rest, well, the handwriting is on the wall even if most of the remaining candidates refuse to read it. With the most recent exception of Beto O'Rourke, who just announced he is dropping out of the race. And while Kamala Harris is still officially a candidate, her campaign is on life-support and she may soon follow O'Rourke's lead.
Pete Buttigieg, however, is thinking more long-term in spite of his relatively low polling numbers. He does have a solid cash flow, a passionate core of supporters, and seems to understand the longer he stays in, the more his national profile will rise, which will help in any future campaign for national office. And Andrew Yang is likely sticking around until there's no money left, regardless of his polling, as he seems to be enjoying the national attention. The rest of the announced candidates haven't even been able to break 2% in the polling aggregate, and stay in the race for reasons known only to themselves.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
Biden gets a bit of extra breathing room this week, while everyone else stays in virtually the same positions as they were last week.
The Top Three
- Biden -- 27.9% (no change)
- Warren -- 20.1% (down 0.2%)
- Sanders -- 17.1% (down 0.3%)
The Rest Of The Pack
- Buttigieg -- 6.2% (up 0.6%)
- Harris -- 5.6% (up 0.6%)
- Yang -- 2.9% (no change)
- O'Rourke -- 2.4 % (down 0.2%) *
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
* officially dropped out of the race on November 1, 2019.
NEW STATE POLLS
Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.
We have three new polls from Iowa which have Warren in the lead, with the most recent poll drawing the most attention as it has Biden in fourth place. Warren also leads in New Hampshire, though their most recent poll had Sanders back on top, with Biden sliding down to the third. However, there is good news for Biden as the two most recent polls from South Carolina have him maintaining his long-substantial lead.
As for the Super Tuesday states, we have two new polls from California with Biden leading in one, Warren in the other, and Sanders keeping pace in both. And the first new poll in six weeks from Massachusetts has very good news for Warren, and is a bit of a sea change for the state from past polling.
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