Bloomberg & Patrick Enter Race, Buttigieg Surges In Iowa

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Most political eyes continued to be focused on the ongoing impeachment hearings in the House this past week. Even so, there was some news from the Democratic front involving two long-term presidential candidates and two (relatively) new faces to the race.

 

Both Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris made headlines this week, but for widely different reasons. Buttigieg is undergoing a bit of a campaign surge in Iowa, where the most recent poll has the "small town mayor" well ahead of the pack. Meanwhile, fellow candidate Harris is in the headlines for the ongoing meltdown of her campaign, which is never a good look heading into the next-to-last debate of the year. 

 

In other news, we have (potentially) two newcomers to the race: former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick. And while Bloomberg has appeared in three of the last ten national polls, his average of support hovers around one percent. 

And it appears that neither candidate is being welcomed by voters as the one to "save" the party from the other, more established candidates. One can only guess at each of their motivations, but we'll see over the next month or so if there is any groundswell of support for either candidate.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Seven new national polls dropped in the past week, and overall there wasn't any change in the status quo with everyone staying pretty much in the same position as they were last week, polling-wise.

 

The Top Three 

• Biden -- 25.4%
• Warren -- 19.8%
• Sanders -- 15.9%

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 6.7% 
• Harris -- 4.2% 
• Klobuchar -- 2.3%
• Yang -- 2.3% 

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

 

We have four new polls from Iowa, where Pete Buttigieg has now taken an overall lead in the race, just ahead of Elizabeth Warren, and five points ahead of both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. We also have new polls in both New Hampshire where Warren, Biden and Sanders are all within the margin-of-error of each other, and Nevada where Biden maintains a slight lead over Warren and Sanders.

 

Of the Super Tuesday states, we have a new poll from California where maintains her Warren lead, and two new polls in North Carolina that show Biden well ahead.