Biden Increases Lead, Warren, Buttigieg Falter, Bloomberg Rising

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

The latest Democratic debate was held in Los Angeles and was a bit more cantankerous than the more recent debates, with Pete Buttigieg taking flack from both Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar.
 

Buttigieg also seems to have become the number two enemy (behind Donald Trump, of course) of the editorial staff at the Huffington Post, who have obviously thrown their full support behind the progressive wing of the party.
 

Which, after seeing the splintering of the party in 2016 which led in no small part to the election of Donald Trump, is a not a good sign for a party desperately wanting to unify to reclaim the White House in 2020.
 

Joe Biden, meanwhile, had arguably his best debate performance to date. He didn't ramble, he was gaffe-free, and he appeared very much in control of things, as a front-runner is supposed to be. For all the many thousands of words published every day by the political observers over which other candidate is rising or falling, the fact remains that Biden is still the national front-runner and is likely to remain that way for a while.
 

That said, the state numbers (see below) tell a much more interesting story.
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have ten new national polls this week, which place Biden firmly in the lead, just slightly more than ten points ahead of second-place Bernie Sanders. Also of note is the continued rise of Michael Bloomberg, who is now within shouting distance of a faltering Buttigieg. 

 

• Biden -- 28.3%
• Sanders -- 17.9%
• Warren -- 14.5%
• Buttigieg -- 7.2% 
• Bloomberg -- 5.2% 
• Yang -- 3.1% 
• Klobuchar -- 2.8%
• Booker -- 2.1%
   

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

Only one new poll this week from among the first four, this being from Iowa, in which Buttigieg maintains his lead over Warren and Sanders, while Biden remains in fourth place. And in the Super Tuesday states, we have one new poll from California, where Sanders and Warren lead Biden, and Buttigieg remains in fourth place. 

Here are the aggregate numbers from each of the first four states based on the five most recent polls: 

 

IOWA	11/12/19	11/14/19	11/20/19	12/11/19	12/17/19		AVERAGE
Buttigieg	22	25	26	18	24		23
Sanders	13	15	18	22	21		17.8
Biden	19	15	12	23	15		16.8
Warren	18	16	19	12	18		16.6
NEW HAMPSHIRE	11/14/19	11/19/19	11/25/19	11/27/19	12/09/19		AVERAGE
Buttigieg	16	25	13	22	18		18.8
Warren	31	15	14	14	12		17.2
Sanders	20	9	16	26	15		17.2
Biden	22	15	12	14	17		16
NEVADA	09/24/19	09/27/19	11/03/19	11/04/19	11/14/19		AVERAGE
Biden	23	22	29	30	24		25.6
Warren	19	18	19	22	18		19.2
Sanders	14	22	19	19	18		18.4
Buttigieg	3	4	7	5	8		5.4
Steyer	3	4	4	3	5		3.8
SOUTH CAROLINA	11/14/19	11/14/19	11/18/19	12/03/19	12/12/19		AVERAGE
Biden	36	45	33	39	27		36
Warren	10	17	13	10	19		13.8
Sanders	10	15	11	13	20		13.8
Buttigieg	3	8	6	10	9		7.2
Steyer	8	2	5	7	5		5.4

Depending on holiday polling, of which we expect very little, we may or may not have an update next weekend. In the meantime, we wish everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday season.