With three new national polls out this week -- from Change Research, Morning Consult, and Harris Interactive -- the race for the Democratic nomination for President remains fairly status quo. Joe Biden slips just a third of a point, Bernie Sanders moves up a tenth of a point, while Elizabeth Warren continues to (slowly) climb out of the middle pack, solidifying her third-place status with a half point jump from last week's poll average.
As for the rest of the pack, Kamala Harris stays steady, Pete Buttigieg moves up half a point, O'Rourke falls back a bit, as do Cory Booker and Amy Klobucher. Basically, all of the candidates are focusing on getting ready for the upcoming debate and staking out their state-by-state strategies. Barring a major scandal, it's not expected to see much change in polling until after the first debates.
NEW NATIONAL POLLS
We have three new national polls since our last update:
Harris Interactive, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden at 36, Sanders at 17, Harris at 8, Warren and Buttigieg at 5, O'Rourke at 4, Booker at 3, and everyone else at 1 or less.
Morning Consult, in a poll of over 16,000 likely voters, has Biden at 38, Sanders at 20, and Warren at 9. Harris and Buttigieg are tied at 7, followed by O'Rourke at 4, Booker at 3, and everyone else at 1 or less.
Change Research, in a poll of likely voters, has Biden at 31, Sanders at 22, and Warren at 15 (her best showing in the past ten polls). Rounding out the pack is Buttigieg at 9, Harris at 8, O'Rourke at 4, and everyone else at 2 or less.
Change Research, in a poll of likely voters, has Biden at 31, Sanders at 22, and Warren at 15 (her best showing in the past ten polls). Rounding out the pack is Buttigieg at 9, Harris at 8, O'Rourke at 4, and everyone else at 2 or less.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
The Top Five
- Biden -- 34.5 %
- Sanders -- 17.9 %
- Warren -- 9.5 %
- Harris -- 7.8 %
- Buttigieg -- 6.2 %
The Middle of The Pack
- O'Rourke -- 4 %
- Booker -- 2.2 %
Still In The Race
- Klobucher -- 1.4 %
- Yang -- 1.1 %
- Castro -- 1 %
- Gillibrand -- 0.7 %
- Gabbard -- 0.7 %
- Ryan -- 0.6 %
- De Blasio -- 0.4 %
- Inslee -- 0.4 %
- Hickenlooper -- 0.3 %
Outside The Polling
All of the other announced candidates did not show in the national polling from this past week.
Here's the full graph of all ranked candidates over the past ten national polls:
And here's the more concise graph of the top five candidates over the past five polls:
NEW STATE POLLS
We have a number of new state polls this week from New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, and Michigan.
In New Hampshire, where Bernie Sanders took 60% of the vote against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, Joe Biden maintains his strong lead, topping Sanders 33-12 in the latest poll from Tel Opinion Research.
In South Carolina, Biden has an even larger lead, topping Sanders 37-10 in the latest poll from Tel Opinion Research.
In California, a must-win for native Senator Kamala Harris, the latest poll from Change Research has Biden at 30, Sanders at 23, and Harris trailing in third at 15, with Warren and Buttigieg just behind at 12.
And in Michigan, which was a key to Donald Trump's victory in 2016, Denmo Research shows broad support for Biden, who leads Sanders 37-16.
All in all, in the first twelve states on the 2020 schedule, Biden leads in all but Massachusetts (Sanders 26-23) and Texas (O'Rourke 25-20).
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