Warren Builds On Renewed Momentum While Biden Holds Steady

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With five new national polls out this week and nine new state polls (including three from Florida alone), the reports that Elizabeth Warren is making a comeback in the race for the Democratic nomination is backed up by the polling. And it appears that she is drawing her renewed support at the expense of Bernie Sanders, as front-runner Joe Biden holds steady in spite of some recent gaffes. The rest of pack remains virtually unchanged, with Buttigieg, Harris, O'Rourke and Booker all holding steady in the polling.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

The Top Five

• Biden -- 31.7 % (Last Week: 31.8 %)
• Sanders -- 15.9 % (Last Week: 17 %)
• Warren -- 12.1 % (Last Week: 10.8 %)
• Buttigieg -- 7.7 % (Last Week: 7.7 %)
• Harris -- 7.1 % (Last Week: 7.1 %

The Middle of The Pack

• O'Rourke -- 3.5 % (Last Week: 3.5 %)
• Booker -- 2.1 % (Last Week: 2.2 %)

Still In The Race

• Klobucher -- 1.1 % (Last Week: 1.1 %)
• Yang -- 1.1 % (Last Week: 1 %)
• Ryan -- 0.8 % (Last Week: 0.8 %)
• Castro -- 0.7 % (Last Week: 0.6 %)
• Gabbard -- 0.6 % (Last Week: 0.6 %)
• Gillibrand -- 0.5 %  (Last Week: 0.5 %)
  

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 0.5% or did not show in the national polling from this past week.

NEW NATIONAL POLLS 

We have five new national polls since our last update:

YouGov, in a poll of likely voters, has Biden leading Warren 26-14, followed closely by Sanders at 13, then Buttigieg at 9, Harris at 7, O'Rourke at 4, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less.

Monmouth University, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden ahead of Warren 32-15, followed closely by Sanders at 14, then Harris at 8, Buttigieg at 5, O'Rourke at 3, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less.

Morning Consult, in their weekly poll of 17, 226 likely voters, has Biden well in front of Sanders 38-19, followed by Warren at 11, Buttigieg at 9, Harris at 7, O'Rourke at 4, Booker at 3, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less.

HarrisX, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden out front of Sanders 35-13, followed by Warren at 7, O'Rourke at 6, Harris at 5, Buttigieg at 4, Booker at 3, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less.

Suffolk University, in a poll of likely voters, has Biden leading Sanders 30-15, followed by Warren at 10, Buttigieg at 9, Harris at 8, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less.

NEW STATE POLLS

We have a nine new state polls this week, including three from Florida and two from South Carolina, and one each from Iowa, New Hampshire, Texas, and Virginia. You can see all the polls on our State Polling Averages page.

Starting in Florida. the state polling in many ways mirrors the national polling, with Biden holding a near 20-point lead in the Sunshine state. The three polls are from Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics, Quinnipiac University, and Change Research.

South Carolina, with a pair of polls, shows a growing battle for runner-up in a crucial early primary state, with Sanders and Warren neck-and-neck with each other while Buttigieg and Harris are not far behind. The two most recent polls are from YouGov and Change Research. 

Over in Iowa, the race is much closer than elsewhere, with Biden just over six points ahead of Sanders, while Buttigieg and Warren are tied for third place, though the most recent poll from YouGov shows Biden and Sanders gaining some separation from the rest of the pack.

Meanwhile in New Hampshire, which had been expected to be a strong state for Sanders, there is much for his campaign to worry about, with both the three-poll average and the latest individual poll from YouGov showing Biden steadily in the lead and Warren coming up quickly.

Virginia echoes the national polling, with Biden well ahead, followed by a close race between Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. The most recent poll from Hampton University confirms the only other poll released from the state. 

And then there's Texas, where native son O'Rourke continues to falter in the latest YouGov poll, staying behind Biden while Sanders and Warren are moving up right behind.

THE DEBATES

The first debates of the Democratic primary season kick off this week, and 20 of the 23 Democratic presidential candidates will be divvied up between two nights. 

The candidates will face off on Wednesday and Thursday evening in Miami, with each debate beginning at 9 p.m. ET and scheduled to end at 11 p.m. Moderators will be Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Díaz-Balart. 

USA Today has an excellent primer on who is on each stage, where they will stand, how the moderation will work, and why the bottom three didn't make the cut.

The next debates are scheduled for July 30-31 in Detroit, using the same qualification standards as this week's debates.