Biden Slips A Bit, Sanders Flat, Warren Continues To Build

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With four new national polls out this week and ten new state polls, the race for the Democratic nomination is far from clear, with a number of candidates moving up on the front runners, while the back of the pack is hoping for a strong debate performance to emerge from their relative national obscurity.

Front-runner Joe Biden continues to slip a bit, dropping about three points over the past two weeks, while Bernie Sanders remains steady in second, and Elizabeth Warren continues to climb, staking out a solid third-place standing with a nearly two point jump.

Pete Buttigieg also continues to rise, leap-frogging Kamala Harris for fourth place, while Beto O'Rourke and Cory Booker languish in the low single digits. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

The Top Five

• Biden -- 31.8 %
• Sanders -- 17 %
• Warren -- 10.8 %
• Buttigieg -- 7.7 %
• Harris -- 7.1 %

The Middle of The Pack

• O'Rourke -- 3.5 %
• Booker -- 2.1 %

Still In The Race

• Klobucher -- 1.1 %
• Yang -- 1 %
• Ryan -- 0.8 %
• Castro -- 0.6 %
• Gabbard -- 0.6 %
• Hickenlooper -- 0.6 %
• Gillibrand -- 0.5 % 
• De Blasio -- 0.4 %

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 0.5% or did not show in the national polling from this past week.

Here's the full graph of all ranked candidates over the past ten national polls:

NEW NATIONAL POLLS 

We have four new national polls since our last update:

YouGov, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden at 26, followed by Warren at 16 (her first time in second place in a national poll since Biden entered the race), Sanders at 12, Buttigieg at 8, Harris at 6, O'Rourke at 3, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less. 

Quinnipiac University, in a poll of registered voters, has Biden at 30, followed by Sanders at 19, Warren at 15, Buttigieg at 8, Harris at 7, O'Rourke at 3, and the rest of the pack at 1% or less.

Change Research, in a poll of likely voters, has Biden at 26, followed by Sanders at 21, Warren at 19, Buttigieg at 14 (his best showing in any national poll), Harris at 8, O'Rourke at 3, and the rest of the pack at 1% or less.

And Morning Consult, in poll of of 17,000 likely voters, has Biden at 37, followed by Sanders at 19, Warren at 11, Buttigieg and Harris as 7, O'Rourke at 4, Booker at 3, and the rest of the pack at 2% or less. 

NEW STATE POLLS

We have a large number of new polls this week, including our first polls from Minnesota, Ohio, and Arizona, along with polls from Nevada, South Carolina, California, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  

You can see all the polls on our State Polling Averages page, so instead of listing all ten polls, we're going to cover the highlights here.

In Nevada, Biden increases his lead over Sanders while Warren moves up, which is pretty much the same story in South Carolina (where Biden has an even larger lead). In Michigan and Pennsylvania, Biden has a firm grip on the top spot as well, as he does in our first polls from Ohio and Arizona. 

In California, one of the early primary "grand prize" states, Biden has a small lead over Sanders, with Harris faltering a bit at the expense of a rising Warren.

CALIFORNIA	04/12/19	06/01/19	06/12/19		AVERAGE
Biden	21	30	22		24.3
Sanders	22	23	17		20.7
Harris	17	15	13		15
Warren	8	12	18		12.7
Buttigieg	9	12	10		10.3
O'Rourke	10	3	3		5.3

In Massachusetts, the new poll from the reliable Suffolk University is one of the most surprising polls we've seen in the past few weeks, and quite bad news for Sanders and O'Rourke.

MASSACHUSETTS	11/16/18	04/10/19	06/10/19		AVERAGE
Biden	19	23	22		21.3
Sanders	14	26	6		15.3
Warren	11	14	10		11.7
Buttigieg	0	11	8		6.3
O'Rourke	10	8	1		6.3
Harris	6	7	5		6

Wisconsin is looking more and more like it's going to be a major battleground state, making the candidates work for their share of the state's 77 delegates. 

WISCONSIN	03/18/19	04/20/19	05/30/19		AVERAGE
Biden	24	24	28		25.3
Sanders	39	20	13		24
Warren	14	6	14		11.3
Harris	5	7	7		6.3
Buttigieg	1	10	7		6
O'Rourke	6	5	1		4
Klobucher	4	4	3		3.7
Booker	2	4	2		2.7

And rounding things out, we have our first poll in Minnesota (from the middle-rated Change Research), which shows that Democrats there have a lot in common with their neighbors in Wisconsin, with just five points separating first from fourth. Warren leads at 21, followed by Biden at 20, Sanders at 19, and Klobucher at 16, Buttigieg rounds out the top five at 11. 

THE DEBATES

The Democratic National Committee has finalized the 20 candidates who will take part of the two days of debates in Miami on June 26 and 27, as well as doing a blind draw to select which ten candidates will appear each night.

The first night will feature Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Julián Castro, Tim Ryan, Bill de Blasio, and Jay Inslee. The second night will feature Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, Marianne Williamson, Eric Swalwell, Andrew Yang, and John Hickenlooper.

And while the DNC all but bent over backwards to randomly select which candidates appeared on which night, it does appear that the second night is more of a "heavyweight" night, although it is generally believed the first night will draw more initial interest.

Both Politico and Vox had their usual "winners and losers" columns, which make for some interesting reading. And for many of you who have emailed or commented in other forums about why there's so much attention being paid to the race this "early", the race for President has been steadily starting earlier and running longer. This is hardly a new trend, and in our opinion, works better for the voting public as it gives us all time to look at each of the candidates that interest us instead of having only a few choices. 

Besides, for political number crunchers like us, it's just plain fun. And less expensive than golf.