STATE POLLING
New polls today from Florida (tied), Ohio (Trump +1, Clinton +1), Michigan (Clinton +5, Clinton +5, Clinton +5), New Mexico (Clinton +5), Virginia (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +5), Iowa (Trump +6), and New York (Clinton +17).
So here we are, the day before Election Day. And after months after endless months of campaigning, it all comes down to the usual (or mostly usual) handful of states. And today's polls, coming on the heels of the latest FBI announcement, should relax the Clinton campaign staff. At least a bit.
Florida and Ohio are still very close, which was predicted six months ago, but the rest of the results are either good news or expected. And while many in the media like to keep the "horse race" narrative alive and kicking, the math has been calling for a solid Clinton victory for the past six months.
Granted, Trump had gained a bit of momentum in the final push, even going so far as to giving up control of his own Twitter account in an effort to stay on message, but the analytics show that it is highly unlikely it has been enough to change the projection of the race.
It is all but certain that tomorrow there will be a huge influx of new polls. I wouldn't be surprised to see all 50 states represented (with the battleground states having multiple polls). As such, I plan to be up early to crunch all the numbers to give my final predictions.
Then on Wednesday, I will post the side-by-side results of the actual results vs my predictions to see how well my algorithm worked. After that, well...maybe it's time to head back to the gym every morning or at the very least find a new hobby. Until the 2020 campaign starts.
Which will probably be Thursday. Or maybe Friday.
ELECTORAL PROJECTION
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 312 to 226. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
New Hampshire: Trump up by 0.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.4%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 3.7%
Likely Democrat
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton email case handling brings tumultuous time for FBI
The FBI's handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation has created more turmoil for the bureau than any other matter in recent history, exposing internal tensions with the Justice Department and stirring concerns the famously apolitical organization unnecessarily injected itself into the campaign.
CNN -- FBI worked 'around the clock' to review emails in Clinton server probe
In the days since the FBI dropped a bombshell into the presidential race with the discovery of new emails relevant to the Hillary Clinton server investigation, bureau investigators worked "around the clock" to review the large volume of emails, two law enforcement officials told CNN.
Fox News -- FBI: email review completed, decision not to prosecute Clinton stands
FBI Director James Comey said Sunday that the agency has reviewed all of the Hillary Clinton emails recently discovered in an unrelated case and that his conclusion in July not to prosecute Clinton after the FBI’s original investigation into her use of a private email server still stands.
Politico -- Trump rejects FBI's email conclusion
Reacting to news that the FBI won't change its determination in the Hillary Clinton email probe, Republican nominee Donald Trump made it clear he still regards her as guilty and is convinced she will ultimately face justice.
The Hill -- Clinton confidence grows after FBI news
Hillary Clinton backers are bullish about their chances for victory on Tuesday after another surprise from the FBI — this time in the Democratic nominee’s favor. FBI Director James Comey’s Sunday letter to Congress said recently-discovered emails had not changed his conclusion that Clinton should not face criminal charges for her use of a private email address and server as secretary of State.
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