The Final Weekend: New polls from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Florida Iowa, Colorado, Washington, Arizona, Michigan

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +6, Clinton +4, Clinton +2), North Carolina (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +1), Nevada (tied, Trump +5), Ohio (Clinton +1), Florida (Trump +1), Iowa (Trump +7, Clinton +1), Colorado (Clinton +5, tied), Washington (Clinton +12), Arizona (Trump +8), and Michigan (tied).

Is Clinton really in danger of losing the election after leading for the entire general campaign? That's the question on everyone's mind as Trump's numbers continue to improve in state after state, raising the possibility that he may pull off one of the greatest upsets in modern electoral history.

So, let's look at how he could get to 270:

1. Take Maine's 2nd District and its one EV. He currently leads there by 2.4% and has been leading all Summer, so this is plausible.
2. Win Hew Hampshire and its four EVs. As of today, the state has flipped over to the GOP side, though just barely (it's all but a virtual tie). This one looks like a coin flip.
3. Win Florida and its 29 EVs. This is the big prize. And he's only down by less than two points, so it's definitely in the realm of possibility.
4. Win Ohio and its 18 EVs. This is the second biggest prize. It's also at the "coin flip" stage, with a slight advantage to Trump.
5. Win Iowa and its 6 EVS. His lead is slowly increasing, so it's looking better for him there everyday.
6. Out West, sweep Nevada (6 EVs), Utah (6 EVs), and Arizona (11 EVs). All three states are looking more possible every day, as he's now leading in all three.
7. Win North Carolina and its 15 EVs. This would give him exactly 270 EVs and the keys to the White House. However, Clinton has been leading steadily, if not by much, for weeks there. This is likely the most difficult state for Trump to flip, but it's still polling within the margin-or-error, so it's definitely a possibility he could flip it over to the GOP side.

So, in summation, he needs to win everything in the current GOP columns, plus Florida and North Carolina. The other path, if he doesn't win North Carolina, is to win Michigan, which gives him 271 (and in this scenario, he doesn't even need the Maine EV). Or, less likely, if he doesn't win New Hampshire, he could still win in he flips either Michigan or Colorado.

So, the answer to our question is, yes, Clinton really is in danger of losing the election. It's not likely, but it's far less unlikely than it was just two weeks ago. The key to Tuesday night is to watch New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida. If Trump wins all three, it's all going to come down to the Western states and will be a long night for everyone. If Clinton wins all three (or even just North Carolina and Florida), then it's champagne time for the Democrats.

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

Two changes to the map today: New Hampshire switches from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican while Michigan moves from "likely" to "leaning" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 312 to 226.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Arizona: Trump up by 3.9%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.9%
New Hampshire: Trump up by 0.2%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 1.9%
Colorado: Clinton up by 2.4%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
Michigan: Clinton up by 3.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.4%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%
 
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton take different strategies to shore up votes

Donald Trump is promising to take his campaign into traditional Democratic territory as a sign that he's not giving up on appealing to people outside the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton is focusing her efforts in the campaign's final days on energizing voters who usually support the Democratic nominee, but may need an extra boost.

CNN -- Trump rushed off stage at campaign rally; protester says he was roughed up

Donald Trump was rushed off a stage here Saturday by Secret Service agents during a campaign speech after an incident in the crowd near the front of the stage. A Secret Service spokesperson said in a statement there was a commotion in the crowd and an "unidentified individual" shouted "gun," though no weapon was found after a "thorough search."

Fox News -- Senate Battle: Race for control goes down to the wire

The presidential battle isn’t the only 2016 contest pundits are reluctant to call: The races expected to decide which party controls the Senate remain dramatically close in the final hours before Election Day.

Politico -- Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm

Nate Silver unloaded Saturday on the Huffington Post’s Ryan Grim, who accused the polling guru and founder of the prediction website fivethirtyeight.com of “changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.”

The Hill -- Experts hedge bets as election tightens

The gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continues to narrow as the candidates jet around the country in the final frenzy before Election Day. Clinton is relying on star power provided by LeBron James, Jay-Z, Beyonce, Katy Perry and others, while Trump forges ahead with his incursion into blue states.