STATE POLLING
New battleground polls today from Texas (Trump +13), Maine CD2 (Clinton +2, Trump +3), Arizona (Trump +4), Ohio (Clinton +6), North Carolina (tied), Pennsylvania (Clinton +11, Trump +1), Michigan (Clinton +7), New Hampshire (Clinton +4), and Virginia (Clinton +4, Clinton +6).
Less than a week to go, and while some had predicted a major polling fallout from the latest Clinton email kerfluffle, if anything it has helped the Democratic candidate. She not only raised $11 million in the three days after the FBI director's letter was released (her largest three-day haul since securing the Democratic nomination), but has actually improved her electoral lead, at least for today.
The battleground map is consolidating, consisting of eight states with less than a 3% lead for either candidate: Georgia, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Add in Maine CD2, and the total represented by this group is 108 electoral votes. If Trump wins all eight of the core swing states (plus Maine CD2) and everything on his "likely" and "solid" list, he would have a total of 266 votes, four short of the number needed to win.
The only chance Trump has to win from the current map is to flip Ohio, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina -- all of which are possible -- and then take just one of the "likely" Democratic states, such as Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan or New Hampshire, all of which are currently polling outside the base margin-of-error.
To say this would be extremely difficult with six days left to campaign is a bit of an understatement. Trump has hampered himself with three problems: 1. substandard fundraising, 2. substandard get-out-the-vote ground operations, and 3. lack of consistent messaging. Clinton can outspend him 3-to-1 in the final week (and appears to be doing so), has a much better ground game, and is focused like a laser beam on messaging and where to make final campaign appearances.
For all the tightness of the national tracking polls, which have both candidates within 2-3 points of each other, the electoral math is clear: this race is Hillary Clinton's to lose.
And if she does, this would pretty much be the "stick a fork in and call it done" moment for current polling methodology.
New polls today as well from from non-battleground states of Kentucky (Trump +17), Indiana (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +14), Maine CD1 (Clinton +12, Clinton +6), Illinois (Clinton +12, Clinton +11), and California (Clinton +21). No real surprises here. Missouri had been the only state of this group even remotely in play, though not any longer.
Also, two days ago, SurveyMonkey released a 50-state poll that has been added to the database. No real surprises there, just more data points (which is what we live on, so to speak).
Four changes to the map today: Missouri moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Ohio switches from "leaning" Republican to "leaning" Democrat, Virginia moves from "solid" to "likely" Democratic, and Minnesota moves from "likely" to "solid" Democratic.
Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.8%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%
Leaning Republican
Georgia: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2%
Utah: Trump up by 1.6%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.5%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 0.4%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.2%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 5.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton presses into Arizona, Trump focuses on Florida
Hillary Clinton is pressing into reliably Republican Arizona as she tries to steal a state away from Donald Trump. Her rival, reinvigorated by the FBI's new email review, is laser-focused on Florida, a marquee battleground state he can't win the White House without.
CNN -- FBI investigations into Trump-Russia ties yield little
The FBI has been conducting multiple investigations of alleged connections between Russia and Donald Trump, his presidential campaign or its backers. But none so far have yielded proof of criminal connections between the parties.
Fox News -- FBI releases documents on Bill Clinton's 2001 pardon of financier Rich
Only days before the presidential election, the FBI released an archive of documents from a long-closed investigation into Bill Clinton's 2001 presidential pardon of a fugitive financier, prompting questions from Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign about its timing.
Politico -- White nationalists plot Election Day show of force
Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll-watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home.
The Hill -- FBI spurs ‘total chaos’ in election’s final days
Investigations. Leaks. Rumors. Innuendo. Welcome to the 2016 presidential campaign’s final days, which have been overwhelmed by the FBI’s handling of its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.
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