Biden Steady, Warren Drops, Buttigieg Rises

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

After a short week filled with too much food, a whole lot of football, a big parade, and then a weekend of consumer frenzy, one would think that politics and polling might take a back seat. Which, in some ways, it has. But that still doesn't mean there aren't dutiful folks out there polling likely voters.
 

As such, the latest batch of polling shows that Joe Biden remains where he's been the entire time since he entered the race: the front-runner. Flavor of Last Month Elizabeth Warren has now dropped below Bernie Sanders, while Flavor of This Month Pete Buttigieg has continued to rise both nationally and in both New Hampshire and Iowa, where he is now in first place.
 

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris continues to see her campaign self-destruct, Corry Booker has no idea how he ended up in an attack ad, Andrew Yang released his tax returns, Amy Klobucher is back in the rankings, and Michael Bloomberg is spending a LOT of money to get the support of less than two percent of voters. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

Six new national polls dropped in the past week. Sanders and Warren swap spots while Klobuchar inches back up above the two percent threshold.
 

The Top Three 

• Biden -- 27.5%
• Sanders -- 17.4%
• Warren -- 16.2%

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 9.7% 
• Harris -- 3.8% 
• Yang -- 3.3% 
• Klobuchar -- 2.2%

 

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

 

Among the first states, we have two new polls from New Hampshire while in the Super Tuesday group we have one new poll from California.
 

In New Hampshire, Buttigieg is now the statistical favorite as he is in Iowa, which has tossed a bit of wrench into the process for the other major candidates. We'll see if he can hold up under increased scrutiny.
 

In California, Biden rebounds with a sold poll and is now just a whisker behind Warren for the lead in the state, ahead of Sanders and well ahead of Buttigieg and Harris.

POLLING NOTE

With the holidays upon us, we are expecting to see a drop in the number of polls. There is still one more debate before the end of the year -- Dec. 19th in Los Angeles -- but the attention of voters is always diminished during the holidays. Come January, though...

Buttigieg Surges In Iowa & New Hampshire, Biden Falters In Debate

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Another week, another series of impeachment hearings all but completely overshadowing the various Democratic candidates. Which was likely a good thing for Joe Biden, who faltered rather badly at this past week's debate. The fact that his gaffes and somewhat rambling answers were all but lost amongst all the impeachment headlines likely has his campaign staff wiping their brows in relief.
 

On the flip side, strong performances by several of the second-tier candidates, notably Amy Klobuchar and Kamala Harris, were also lost amongst all the impeachment noise. For the rest of the candidates, it was largely status quo with the slight surprise that a surging Pete Buttigieg wasn't targeted as heavily as prognosticators had predicted.

 

The "Buttigieg Surge" in Iowa and New Hampshire has left a number of political watchers a bit surprised. To make a ten-point (plus) jump in polling almost always is a sign of an outlier poll or poor methodology. But the most recent polls come from very reputable sources.
 

The real question for Buttigieg and his campaign is will he be able maintain these new numbers and supplant Joe Biden in the "moderate" lane of the campaign, or whether he will be just another "flavor of the month". And as for the "progressive" lane, it appears concerns over Bernie Sanders' health have abated, as he is now back in a virtual tie with Elizabeth Warren.
 

That said, we'll need another week to get a new baseline of post-debate polls to see if the status quo has changed any.
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Five new national polls dropped in the past week, with Biden rebounding a bit, Warren and Sanders matching up again, and Klobuchar dropping below the 2% threshold, leaving just six candidates polling above the cut-off. 

 

The Top Three 

• Biden -- 27.4%
• Warren -- 18.9%
• Sanders -- 18.3%

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 7.6% 
• Harris -- 4.3% 
• Yang -- 2.8% 

 

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

 

We have one new poll each from Iowa and Texas, two new polls from New Hampshire, and three new polls from South Carolina.
 

As mentioned above, Buttigieg has had some very good news from Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, he is now the overall front-runner, leading Warren and Sanders, with Biden falling down to fourth place. Over in New Hampshire, Buttigieg leads in the latest poll but still trails the other three in the overall numbers though his trendline is the most positive of the pack.

 

In South Carolina, Biden continues to dominate, leading second-place Warren by over twenty points. Barring a complete collapse in Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina and (to a lesser extent) Nevada will be Biden's early-state "firewall" against the other main candidates.

 

And in Texas, we have our first poll since Beto O'Rourke dropped out of the race, and his supporters have seemingly split their preferences between Biden and Sanders, both of whom saw a bit of a bump. Overall, though, Biden leads the pack in the Lone Star state by just under ten points. 

 

POLLING NOTE

With the holidays upon us, we are expecting to see a drop in the number of polls. There is still one more debate before the end of the year -- Dec. 19th in Los Angeles -- but the attention of voters is always diminished during the holidays. Come January, though...