Iowa & New Hampshire Remain Close, National Race Looks The Same

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With one last debate to go before the Iowa caucuses, and Tom Steyer just making the cutoff, the race looks about the same as it did two months ago -- with one outlying exception in the form of Michael Bloomberg.

 

So what is Bloomberg up to? He is skipping the first four states, isn't going to get on the debate stage, and has already dropped over $200 million (and counting) on the race to basically get a hair over six percent support. Does he really think he can pull off a Super Tuesday upset or is his recent announcement that he'll keep paying his campaign staff to work for whoever the eventual nominee is a better clue as to his intentions?
 

One can only guess as to the working of the mind of a multi-billionaire, but our money is that his goal is no to win the White House or even have any formal role in a future Democratic administration (such as cabinet post, though he likely wouldn't turn down once of the plum ambassador spots if offered). It seems his real goal is to do whatever it takes to send Donald Trump packing. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have four new polls to add into the rolling average.

• Biden -- 29.6%
• Sanders -- 18.7%
• Warren -- 14.8%
• Buttigieg -- 7.3% 
• Bloomberg -- 6.5% 
• Yang -- 3.2% 
• Klobuchar -- 2.9%

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls. And, as noted above, Julian Castro has officially ended his presidential campaign. 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being. 

 

Iowa remains very tight, with just a hair over four points separating the top four. As it stands now, Bernie Sanders is the lead, but that can (and likely will) change as the polls beginning to come fast and furious this month. 

IOWA	11/20/19	12/11/19	12/17/19	01/04/20	01/08/20		AVERAGE
Sanders	18	22	21	23	20		20.8
Buttigieg	26	18	24	12	16		19.2
Biden	12	23	15	23	15		17.6
Warren	19	12	18	16	17		16.4

New Hampshire is almost as close as Iowa, though there's a bit more separation amongst the tour four.

NEW HAMPSHIRE	11/25/19	11/27/19	12/09/19	01/03/20	01/08/20		AVERAGE
Sanders	16	26	15	27	18		20.4
Biden	12	14	17	25	19		17.4
Buttigieg	13	22	18	13	20		17.2
Warren	14	14	12	18	15		14.6

Nevada is looking good for Biden, though Steyer is suddenly coming on strong.

NEVADA	09/27/19	11/03/19	11/04/19	11/14/19	01/09/20		AVERAGE
Biden	22	29	30	24	23		25.6
Warren	18	19	22	18	12		17.8
Sanders	22	19	19	18	17		17
Buttigieg	4	7	5	8	6		6
Steyer	4	4	3	5	12		5.6

And in South Carolina, Biden maintains his massive lead, though here again we see Tom Steyer coming out of nowhere.

SOUTH CAROLINA	11/14/19	11/18/19	12/03/19	12/12/19	01/09/20		AVERAGE
Biden	45	33	39	27	36		36
Sanders	15	11	13	20	14		14.4
Warren	17	13	10	19	10		13.8
Buttigieg	8	6	10	9	4		7.4
Steyer	2	5	7	5	15		6.8

Biden Starts 2020 Strong, Buttigieg Falls Back, Castro Drops Out

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

And we're back after the winter holidays with a slew of new national polls, some strong fundraising numbers, the loss of Julian Castro, and the first time Marianne Williamson has been in the national news in a while...albeit not for the reason she hoped.

 

As we start off 2020 and gear up for the Iowa caucuses -- which are less than a month away -- the national race has settled down. Joe Biden maintains the steady lead he has had for the past eight months, followed about ten point back by Bernie Sanders, with Elizabeth Warren a few points further behind. In the single digits are Pete Buttigieg (who has dropped back to where he was two months ago), relative newcomer Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, and Amy Klobuchar.

 

However, the numbers is Iowa are, not too surprising, not a reflection of the national numbers. Pete Buttigieg still leads all candidates, with a virtual three-way tie for second behind him between Sanders, Biden and Warren. In other words, with less than a month away from the caucuses, there is literally no way to predict with any accuracy who will emerge a winner from the cornfields of Iowa.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have ten new national polls over the past two weeks. Which answers one question: how much support does $200 million in advertising get you. The answer is: 5.4%, at least if your name is Michael Bloomberg. 

 

• Biden -- 28.1%
• Sanders -- 18.9%
• Warren -- 14.4%
• Buttigieg -- 7.1% 
• Bloomberg -- 5.4% 
• Yang -- 3.5% 
• Klobuchar -- 2.9%

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls. And, as noted above, Julian Castro has officially ended his presidential campaign. 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

There were no new state polls in the past two weeks because of the holidays. That said, expect a rash of new polls over the next several weeks, especially in the first four states.