WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
The latest Democratic debate was held in Los Angeles and was a bit more cantankerous than the more recent debates, with Pete Buttigieg taking flack from both Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar.
Buttigieg also seems to have become the number two enemy (behind Donald Trump, of course) of the editorial staff at the Huffington Post, who have obviously thrown their full support behind the progressive wing of the party.
Which, after seeing the splintering of the party in 2016 which led in no small part to the election of Donald Trump, is a not a good sign for a party desperately wanting to unify to reclaim the White House in 2020.
Joe Biden, meanwhile, had arguably his best debate performance to date. He didn't ramble, he was gaffe-free, and he appeared very much in control of things, as a front-runner is supposed to be. For all the many thousands of words published every day by the political observers over which other candidate is rising or falling, the fact remains that Biden is still the national front-runner and is likely to remain that way for a while.
That said, the state numbers (see below) tell a much more interesting story.
UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
As for the national numbers, we have ten new
national polls this week, which place Biden
firmly in the lead, just slightly more than ten
points ahead of second-place Bernie Sanders.
Also of note is the continued rise of Michael
Bloomberg, who is now within shouting distance
of a faltering Buttigieg.
- Biden -- 28.3%
- Sanders -- 17.9%
- Warren -- 14.5%
- Buttigieg -- 7.2%
- Bloomberg -- 5.2%
- Yang -- 3.1%
- Klobuchar -- 2.8%
-
Booker -- 2.1%
All of the other announced candidates were below
2% or did not show in the national polling from
the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
NEW STATE
POLLS
Our
State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant
sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the
then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other
states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.
Only one new poll this week from among the first four, this being from Iowa, in which Buttigieg maintains his lead over Warren and Sanders, while Biden remains in fourth place. And in the Super Tuesday states, we have one new poll from California, where Sanders and Warren lead Biden, and Buttigieg remains in fourth place.
Here are the aggregate numbers from each of the first four states based on the five most recent polls:
| IOWA | 11/12/19 | 11/14/19 | 11/20/19 | 12/11/19 | 12/17/19 | AVERAGE | |
| Buttigieg | 22 | 25 | 26 | 18 | 24 | 23 | |
| Sanders | 13 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 17.8 | |
| Biden | 19 | 15 | 12 | 23 | 15 | 16.8 | |
| Warren | 18 | 16 | 19 | 12 | 18 | 16.6 | |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | 11/14/19 | 11/19/19 | 11/25/19 | 11/27/19 | 12/09/19 | AVERAGE | |
| Buttigieg | 16 | 25 | 13 | 22 | 18 | 18.8 | |
| Warren | 31 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 17.2 | |
| Sanders | 20 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 15 | 17.2 | |
| Biden | 22 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 16 | |
| NEVADA | 09/24/19 | 09/27/19 | 11/03/19 | 11/04/19 | 11/14/19 | AVERAGE | |
| Biden | 23 | 22 | 29 | 30 | 24 | 25.6 | |
| Warren | 19 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 19.2 | |
| Sanders | 14 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18.4 | |
| Buttigieg | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 5.4 | |
| Steyer | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | 11/14/19 | 11/14/19 | 11/18/19 | 12/03/19 | 12/12/19 | AVERAGE | |
| Biden | 36 | 45 | 33 | 39 | 27 | 36 | |
| Warren | 10 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 13.8 | |
| Sanders | 10 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 20 | 13.8 | |
| Buttigieg | 3 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7.2 | |
| Steyer | 8 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5.4 |
Depending on holiday polling, of which we expect very little, we may or may not have an update next weekend. In the meantime, we wish everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday season.
