STATE POLLING
Ipsos/Reuters just dropped the single largest number of polls so far this year: 45 states. Plus Monmouth has a poll in Pennsylvania, just to add a little extra to the polling gumbo today.
As such, instead of listing all 46 new polls line-by-line, I'll post all the updated results on the State Polling Averages page as well as the updated battleground numbers here.
The biggest change with all the new data is that our prediction map has changed a bit, with a rather interesting shift in the battleground map. Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 182 with 22 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.4%
Arizona: Trump up by 3.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.2%
Virtually Tied
Missouri: Trump up by 0.9%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.6%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.9%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.2%
Oregon: Clinton up by 5.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from PPP and NBC News.
Clinton leads by 5 in the PPP poll, 42% to 37% over Trump, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 4%. In the NBC News poll, Clinton leads by 4, 41% to 37% over Trump, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 5%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump has surprise Mexico visit ahead of immigration speech
Donald Trump will be taking his first foreign trip as the Republican presidential nominee on Wednesday, making a quick and unexpected visit to Mexico, a nation he derided as the home of rapists and criminals as he launched his campaign.
CNN -- Trump lifts ban on media outlets, at least for pool duty
Donald Trump's ban on The Washington Post, BuzzFeed and other media outlets may not be over -- but it does appear to have loosened. Four of the news organizations that Trump has blacklisted from covering his campaign events are all listed on the September rotation for a new print press pool that will cover Trump.
Fox News -- FBI to release Clinton probe files
Hillary Clinton is facing the possibility of new revelations on her personal email scandal on multiple fronts, as the FBI prepares to release some of the documents from its investigation in a matter of days – and a watchdog group sends the Democratic presidential nominee a detailed set of questions she’s expected to answer “under oath” by next month.
Huffington Post -- Democrats Ask FBI To Probe Trump-Russia Links After Their Party Was Hacked
The FBI should investigate whether there was any collusion between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russian hackers suspected of penetrating Democratic servers, according to a letter sent to the bureau by top House Democrats on Tuesday.
Politico -- Clinton camp blasts Trump's Mexico visit
Donald Trump's meeting in Mexico with President Enrique Peña Nieto ahead of his immigration speech Wednesday night in Phoenix will not change anything about what he has previously said about the country or its people, a top aide for Hillary Clinton's campaign said.
The Hill -- 5 things to watch for in Trump's immigration speech
Donald Trump heads to Arizona Wednesday for a pivotal immigration speech that could put to rest weeks of uncertainty. The GOP nominee has publicly wrestled with his signature issue for more than a week, prompting intense media and political speculation as well as concern from some of his most ardent supporters.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
69 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), Ohio (tie), Michigan (Clinton +5), and Arizona (Clinton +1).
Normally, a batch of polls with Clinton ahead in all but one would seem to be good news for her campaign. Yet, in this case three of the four shows signs of negative movement for Team Clinton. Michigan has dropped to "lean" status, joining Ohio (which has been there a long time), and Pennsylvania is getting a bit close to the cut-off line.
The good news for Clinton and company is that they are still ahead in all three of the states, and better news for them is how they are keeping Arizona in play. This not only forces the Trump campaign to focus on a state once considered a safe Republican playing field, but also could directly affect control of the Senate, as longtime incumbent (and former GOP nominee) John McCain is in the political fight of his career this year.
Currently, Clinton has a 244 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.4%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 5.7%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Monmouth that has Clinton up by 7, 46% to 39% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
At the rate things are going, it does not appear likely that either of the third-party candidates are going to achieve the necessary 15% support level to be invited to the first presidential debate stage (September 26th at Hofstra University). Johnson has gone on record saying that is he doesn't make the stage, he has no shot at winning the White House.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump's deportation waffle highlights campaign weaknesses
Donald Trump and his aides used to say that voters didn't care about the nitty-gritty of policy details. But now those details are tripping up his campaign. For more than a week now, as he's tried to shine the spotlight on his rival, Trump has appeared to wrestle with one of his signature proposals: A pledge to expel everyone living in the U.S. illegally with the help of a "deportation force."
CNN -- Clinton on pace to post her top fundraising month
Hillary Clinton raised over $11 million Sunday at three events in tony towns throughout the Hamptons, putting Clinton on place to make August her top fundraising month of the campaign. Clinton has so far headlined 31 events in August, the most fundraisers she has headlined in one month this year.
Fox News -- Trump calls Kaepernick's refusal to stand for national anthem 'terrible'
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump criticized San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick Monday, calling Kaepernick's refusal to stand for the national anthem "a terrible thing." "I think it’s personally not a good thing," Trump told Seattle radio station KIRO when asked about the controversy.
Huffington Post -- Donald Trump Is Wrong About Crime In Cities
Donald Trump on Monday continued his clumsy efforts to appeal to black voters, tweeting a false claim about “inner-city” crime nearing record highs. As his campaign again attempts to right itself after plummeting in the polls, Trump has argued that black voters should support him because Democratic policies have failed their communities.
Politico -- "There has always been, will always be a physical wall"
Donald Trump has been "remarkably consistent" with his call to end illegal immigration, one of his top spokesmen said Tuesday, as the Republican nominee himself sought to underscore his commitment to building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, a day before his scheduled speech on the issue.
The Hill -- Trump’s popularity with African-American voters polling at zero
Public Policy Polling released a preview of a new poll on “The Rachel Maddow Show” Monday night that showed Donald Trump’s favorability rating among African-American voters at 0 percent. The liberal-leaning firm asked African-American voters a set of questions, asking whether they preferred Trump to things such as bedbugs, junk mail, carnies, bubonic plague and middle airplane seats.
New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), Ohio (tie), Michigan (Clinton +5), and Arizona (Clinton +1).
Normally, a batch of polls with Clinton ahead in all but one would seem to be good news for her campaign. Yet, in this case three of the four shows signs of negative movement for Team Clinton. Michigan has dropped to "lean" status, joining Ohio (which has been there a long time), and Pennsylvania is getting a bit close to the cut-off line.
The good news for Clinton and company is that they are still ahead in all three of the states, and better news for them is how they are keeping Arizona in play. This not only forces the Trump campaign to focus on a state once considered a safe Republican playing field, but also could directly affect control of the Senate, as longtime incumbent (and former GOP nominee) John McCain is in the political fight of his career this year.
Currently, Clinton has a 244 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.4%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 5.7%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Monmouth that has Clinton up by 7, 46% to 39% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
At the rate things are going, it does not appear likely that either of the third-party candidates are going to achieve the necessary 15% support level to be invited to the first presidential debate stage (September 26th at Hofstra University). Johnson has gone on record saying that is he doesn't make the stage, he has no shot at winning the White House.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump's deportation waffle highlights campaign weaknesses
Donald Trump and his aides used to say that voters didn't care about the nitty-gritty of policy details. But now those details are tripping up his campaign. For more than a week now, as he's tried to shine the spotlight on his rival, Trump has appeared to wrestle with one of his signature proposals: A pledge to expel everyone living in the U.S. illegally with the help of a "deportation force."
CNN -- Clinton on pace to post her top fundraising month
Hillary Clinton raised over $11 million Sunday at three events in tony towns throughout the Hamptons, putting Clinton on place to make August her top fundraising month of the campaign. Clinton has so far headlined 31 events in August, the most fundraisers she has headlined in one month this year.
Fox News -- Trump calls Kaepernick's refusal to stand for national anthem 'terrible'
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump criticized San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick Monday, calling Kaepernick's refusal to stand for the national anthem "a terrible thing." "I think it’s personally not a good thing," Trump told Seattle radio station KIRO when asked about the controversy.
Huffington Post -- Donald Trump Is Wrong About Crime In Cities
Donald Trump on Monday continued his clumsy efforts to appeal to black voters, tweeting a false claim about “inner-city” crime nearing record highs. As his campaign again attempts to right itself after plummeting in the polls, Trump has argued that black voters should support him because Democratic policies have failed their communities.
Politico -- "There has always been, will always be a physical wall"
Donald Trump has been "remarkably consistent" with his call to end illegal immigration, one of his top spokesmen said Tuesday, as the Republican nominee himself sought to underscore his commitment to building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, a day before his scheduled speech on the issue.
The Hill -- Trump’s popularity with African-American voters polling at zero
Public Policy Polling released a preview of a new poll on “The Rachel Maddow Show” Monday night that showed Donald Trump’s favorability rating among African-American voters at 0 percent. The liberal-leaning firm asked African-American voters a set of questions, asking whether they preferred Trump to things such as bedbugs, junk mail, carnies, bubonic plague and middle airplane seats.
Monday, August 29, 2016
70 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Ohio, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida
STATE POLLING
Ipsos just dropped a batch of new polls from Texas (Trump +13), Ohio (Clinton +6), California (Clinton +36), New York (Clinton +22), Pennsylvania (Clinton +7) , Illinois (Clinton +27) and Florida (Clinton +7).
With the exception of Texas, this is devastating news for the Trump campaign, which had built its election strategy around breaking the Democrats hold on the "Rust Belt" states with a blue collar populist message. Combined with Florida, this was what they believed would win them the White House.
Unfortunately for their plans, that strategy is simply not working. Clinton is leading in Ohio and Pennsylvania (along with Michigan) and building her lead in Florida. Add in insurmountable leads in California, Illinois and New York, and with just 70 days to go, things are not looking good for Trump. His last remaining hope to reset the campaign and turn things around are the upcoming presidential debates.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.3%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton proposes plan to address mental health treatment
Hillary Clinton is rolling out a comprehensive plan to address millions of Americans coping with mental illness, pointing to the need to fully integrate mental health services into the nation's health care system.
CNN -- What is Donald Trump's immigration plan?
Donald Trump's lack of clarity on his plans for dealing with some 11 million undocumented immigrants in this country has been so head-spinning in recent weeks it's starting to look deliberate.
Fox News -- Trump preps for first presidential debate; aide vows 'unconventional' approach
Donald Trump’s campaign confirmed that the candidate is off the campaign trail Sunday to get ready for his first presidential debate with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but was mum on preparation strategy or likely tactics.
Huffington Post -- Trump Vows Crackdown On Immigrants Who Overstay Visas
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump offered fresh details of how he would tackle illegal immigration on Saturday, saying he would crack down on those who overstay their visas as he sought to quiet criticism from conservatives.
Politico -- Trump’s new aim: Poison a Clinton presidency
The trick out of Brooklyn isn't just to make Hillary Clinton win but to make her win as something other than a brain-damaged crook who stole the election and will spend the next four years selling out the government from her deathbed.
The Hill -- Trump promises immigration speech Wednesday
On Sunday evening, Donald Trump promised in a tweet that he’ll deliver a major speech on immigration Wednesday — saying he’s still looking for a larger venue. Trump is looking more closely at the question of what to do about millions of illegal immigrants living in the country.
Ipsos just dropped a batch of new polls from Texas (Trump +13), Ohio (Clinton +6), California (Clinton +36), New York (Clinton +22), Pennsylvania (Clinton +7) , Illinois (Clinton +27) and Florida (Clinton +7).
With the exception of Texas, this is devastating news for the Trump campaign, which had built its election strategy around breaking the Democrats hold on the "Rust Belt" states with a blue collar populist message. Combined with Florida, this was what they believed would win them the White House.
Unfortunately for their plans, that strategy is simply not working. Clinton is leading in Ohio and Pennsylvania (along with Michigan) and building her lead in Florida. Add in insurmountable leads in California, Illinois and New York, and with just 70 days to go, things are not looking good for Trump. His last remaining hope to reset the campaign and turn things around are the upcoming presidential debates.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.3%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton proposes plan to address mental health treatment
Hillary Clinton is rolling out a comprehensive plan to address millions of Americans coping with mental illness, pointing to the need to fully integrate mental health services into the nation's health care system.
CNN -- What is Donald Trump's immigration plan?
Donald Trump's lack of clarity on his plans for dealing with some 11 million undocumented immigrants in this country has been so head-spinning in recent weeks it's starting to look deliberate.
Fox News -- Trump preps for first presidential debate; aide vows 'unconventional' approach
Donald Trump’s campaign confirmed that the candidate is off the campaign trail Sunday to get ready for his first presidential debate with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but was mum on preparation strategy or likely tactics.
Huffington Post -- Trump Vows Crackdown On Immigrants Who Overstay Visas
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump offered fresh details of how he would tackle illegal immigration on Saturday, saying he would crack down on those who overstay their visas as he sought to quiet criticism from conservatives.
Politico -- Trump’s new aim: Poison a Clinton presidency
The trick out of Brooklyn isn't just to make Hillary Clinton win but to make her win as something other than a brain-damaged crook who stole the election and will spend the next four years selling out the government from her deathbed.
The Hill -- Trump promises immigration speech Wednesday
On Sunday evening, Donald Trump promised in a tweet that he’ll deliver a major speech on immigration Wednesday — saying he’s still looking for a larger venue. Trump is looking more closely at the question of what to do about millions of illegal immigrants living in the country.
Sunday, August 28, 2016
71 Days Till Election Day: New poll from Iowa
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Iowa where Clinton and Trump are in a statistical tie. This is the second consecutive tie, which shows how close the race is in the Hawkeye State.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Gravis that has Clinton up by 1, 42% to 41% over Trump, with Johnson at 4% and Stein at 1%.
The interesting note about this poll, aside from it showing the smallest gap between the two main candidates since the conventions, is that it shows both Johnson and Stein with far less support that other recent polls.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump warns of regulations, taxes harming family farmers
Donald Trump said rival Hillary Clinton will push regulations and high taxes that will hurt family farmers as he campaigned in Iowa, an agricultural state that remains a presidential election battleground.
CNN -- Trump links death of Dwyane Wade's cousin to black vote
Donald Trump tweeted Saturday that tragedies like the death of NBA star Dwyane Wade's cousin are one of the reasons African-Americans will vote for the Republican nominee, later adding that he can "fix" inner-city problems.
Fox News -- Trump, GOP calls on Clinton to have full State Dept schedule released
The Donald Trump campaign and Washington Republicans are calling on Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to have all of her daily schedules as secretary of state released before Election Day, after the State Department said Friday it cannot comply with the court-ordered release until after voting.
Huffington Post -- Trump Goes Back To Original Immigration Position With Second 180 Flip
Donald Trump’s experiment with “softening” his immigration policy came to a dramatic end Saturday in a fairgrounds livestock pavilion, with the Republican presidential nominee promising deportations within an hour of his inauguration.
Politico -- Trump might already be out of time
The Republican nominee — three months after clinching the nomination — has begun frantically trying to reposition himself in the last week, installing a new campaign manager and controversial CEO to help him escape the straitjacket that his 14 months of incendiary comments and hard-edged policy positions have him in.
The Hill -- Trump media feud moves from Megyn Kelly to ‘Morning Joe’
Donald Trump’s media feuds have moved from Fox News’s Megyn Kelly to Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” The fighting with television personalities and reporters has been a consistent theme of Trump’s, and one that has been a way to rally fans to his side.
New polls today from Iowa where Clinton and Trump are in a statistical tie. This is the second consecutive tie, which shows how close the race is in the Hawkeye State.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Gravis that has Clinton up by 1, 42% to 41% over Trump, with Johnson at 4% and Stein at 1%.
The interesting note about this poll, aside from it showing the smallest gap between the two main candidates since the conventions, is that it shows both Johnson and Stein with far less support that other recent polls.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump warns of regulations, taxes harming family farmers
Donald Trump said rival Hillary Clinton will push regulations and high taxes that will hurt family farmers as he campaigned in Iowa, an agricultural state that remains a presidential election battleground.
CNN -- Trump links death of Dwyane Wade's cousin to black vote
Donald Trump tweeted Saturday that tragedies like the death of NBA star Dwyane Wade's cousin are one of the reasons African-Americans will vote for the Republican nominee, later adding that he can "fix" inner-city problems.
Fox News -- Trump, GOP calls on Clinton to have full State Dept schedule released
The Donald Trump campaign and Washington Republicans are calling on Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to have all of her daily schedules as secretary of state released before Election Day, after the State Department said Friday it cannot comply with the court-ordered release until after voting.
Huffington Post -- Trump Goes Back To Original Immigration Position With Second 180 Flip
Donald Trump’s experiment with “softening” his immigration policy came to a dramatic end Saturday in a fairgrounds livestock pavilion, with the Republican presidential nominee promising deportations within an hour of his inauguration.
Politico -- Trump might already be out of time
The Republican nominee — three months after clinching the nomination — has begun frantically trying to reposition himself in the last week, installing a new campaign manager and controversial CEO to help him escape the straitjacket that his 14 months of incendiary comments and hard-edged policy positions have him in.
The Hill -- Trump media feud moves from Megyn Kelly to ‘Morning Joe’
Donald Trump’s media feuds have moved from Fox News’s Megyn Kelly to Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” The fighting with television personalities and reporters has been a consistent theme of Trump’s, and one that has been a way to rally fans to his side.
Saturday, August 27, 2016
72 Days Till Election Day: New poll from Florida
STATE POLLING
New poll today from Florida (Clinton +2). This is second poll from the Sunshine State since the Clinton +14 polls released by Saint Leo University. In the first, Trump was up +2, in today's, Clinton is up +2. Combined with the recent polls prior to the SLO poll, it's obvious that the +14 result was an extreme outlier and, as such, has been removed from our statistical baseline.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Ex-wife says Trump campaign CEO made anti-Semitic remarks
An ex-wife of Donald Trump's new campaign CEO, Stephen Bannon, said Bannon made anti-Semitic remarks when the two battled over sending their daughters to private school nearly a decade ago, according to court papers reviewed Friday by The Associated Press
CNN -- Doctor: I wrote Trump's bill of health in 5 minutes
The doctor who has produced the only public medical record about Donald Trump during his presidential campaign reportedly said he spent only five minutes writing it.
Fox News -- Clinton's full State Dept. schedule won't be released until after Election Day
Seven months after a federal judge ordered the State Department to begin releasing monthly batches of the detailed daily schedules showing meetings by Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of state, the government told The Associated Press it won't finish the job before Election Day.
Huffington Post -- Hillary Clinton Is Winning The Ad War — And Americans Have Noticed
Hillary Clinton’s massive lead over Donald Trump on ad spending hasn’t gone unnoticed by the American public. Forty-seven percent of Americans polled in a new HuffPost/YouGov survey say that they’ve seen more ads from Clinton during the last month than they have from Trump.
Politico -- Trump fights breaking out across college campuses
Michael Straw, a senior at Penn State University, returned to campus this week, put on a crisp blue suit, and walked into a Trump buzzsaw. The president of the school’s chapter of College Republicans had a sense of what he was in for.
The Hill -- Clinton, Trump sharpen attacks
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have sharpened their rhetoric on race as an already negative presidential race threatens to reach previously unseen levels.
New poll today from Florida (Clinton +2). This is second poll from the Sunshine State since the Clinton +14 polls released by Saint Leo University. In the first, Trump was up +2, in today's, Clinton is up +2. Combined with the recent polls prior to the SLO poll, it's obvious that the +14 result was an extreme outlier and, as such, has been removed from our statistical baseline.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Ex-wife says Trump campaign CEO made anti-Semitic remarks
An ex-wife of Donald Trump's new campaign CEO, Stephen Bannon, said Bannon made anti-Semitic remarks when the two battled over sending their daughters to private school nearly a decade ago, according to court papers reviewed Friday by The Associated Press
CNN -- Doctor: I wrote Trump's bill of health in 5 minutes
The doctor who has produced the only public medical record about Donald Trump during his presidential campaign reportedly said he spent only five minutes writing it.
Fox News -- Clinton's full State Dept. schedule won't be released until after Election Day
Seven months after a federal judge ordered the State Department to begin releasing monthly batches of the detailed daily schedules showing meetings by Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of state, the government told The Associated Press it won't finish the job before Election Day.
Huffington Post -- Hillary Clinton Is Winning The Ad War — And Americans Have Noticed
Hillary Clinton’s massive lead over Donald Trump on ad spending hasn’t gone unnoticed by the American public. Forty-seven percent of Americans polled in a new HuffPost/YouGov survey say that they’ve seen more ads from Clinton during the last month than they have from Trump.
Politico -- Trump fights breaking out across college campuses
Michael Straw, a senior at Penn State University, returned to campus this week, put on a crisp blue suit, and walked into a Trump buzzsaw. The president of the school’s chapter of College Republicans had a sense of what he was in for.
The Hill -- Clinton, Trump sharpen attacks
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have sharpened their rhetoric on race as an already negative presidential race threatens to reach previously unseen levels.
Friday, August 26, 2016
73 Days Till Election Day: New poll from Michigan
STATE POLLING
One new poll today, from Michigan (Clinton +7). Not any big surprise there, as Clinton has been steadily leading in Michigan all summer long. Even Trump's recent major speech in Detroit has done little to move the needle.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Also, if you look over to your right at the top of the page, you'll notice a new link to the State Polling Averages. This lists the current polling averages from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. They are listed in order of support, with the battleground states in the center.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac and Reuters/Ipsos. Quinnipiac has Clinton up by 7, leading Trump 45% to 38%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%. Reuters has the race a bit closer, with Clinton up by just 3%, leading Trump 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 3%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.
I've had several emails from regular readers asking why my national numbers where often much lower than what they were seeing on other sites. For example, this Politico headline reads "Clinton leads Trump by 10 in national poll" that references the same Quinnipiac poll I have above. If you notice, her lead here is only 7.
So, what's going on? Simple: Many media sites are only using the two-candidate numbers (where Clinton is indeed up +10), whereas I decided two months ago to use the three- and four-candidate numbers when they were available.
The reasons are simple: 1) I think including Johnson and Stein gives a more accurate look at the national electorate, 2) as has been said many times, national numbers actually don't mean anything. I include this section merely as a snapshot of how things are going; the only numbers that ever matter are the ones at the top of the electoral map.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump rebukes racism claims as Clinton warns of radicalism
Hillary Clinton says Donald Trump has unleashed the "radical fringe" within the Republican Party, including anti-Semites and white supremacists, dubbing the billionaire businessman's campaign as one that will "make America hate again."
CNN -- Clinton is attacking the 'Alt-Right'...What is it?
Previously confined to darker corners of the internet, the alt-right is moving into the spotlight. Donald Trump linked himself to the movement last week by hiring Breitbart's Steve Bannon as his campaign CEO, elevating one of the leading purveyors of an ideology steeped in white nationalism, misogyny and anti-Semitism to his inner circle.
Fox News -- Clinton, Trump battle over 'racist' charge
Hillary Clinton returned to the campaign trail Thursday to try pinning a racist tag on Donald Trump, accusing him of “taking hate groups mainstream” -- while Trump accused his opponent of "lies" and "smears," and labeling "decent Americans as racists."
Huffington Post -- Hillary Clinton Excoriates Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton said Thursday that Donald Trump is “taking hate groups mainstream,” allowing a “radical fringe” to take over the Republican Party. Speaking at a rally in Reno, Nevada, Clinton focused on Trump’s divisive, racist comments, telling voters, “There’s no other Donald Trump. This is it.”
Politico -- GOP insiders: Moderating on immigration helps Trump
Donald Trump signaled this week he will “soften” his proposals on immigration policy — and nearly two-thirds of Republican insiders in battleground states think a more moderate stance would help the GOP nominee win the presidency.
The Hill -- Watchdogs warn of 'serious' conflicts of interest for Clinton Foundation
Donald Trump is not the only voice sounding the alarm over conflicts-of-interest surrounding Hillary Clinton's namesake nonprofit. Government watchdog groups –– all of them champions of heightened transparency, campaign finance reform and other Democratic priorities –– are also warning of potentially "very serious" conflicts of interest if the Clinton Foundation continues business as usual with Clinton in the White House.
One new poll today, from Michigan (Clinton +7). Not any big surprise there, as Clinton has been steadily leading in Michigan all summer long. Even Trump's recent major speech in Detroit has done little to move the needle.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Also, if you look over to your right at the top of the page, you'll notice a new link to the State Polling Averages. This lists the current polling averages from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. They are listed in order of support, with the battleground states in the center.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac and Reuters/Ipsos. Quinnipiac has Clinton up by 7, leading Trump 45% to 38%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%. Reuters has the race a bit closer, with Clinton up by just 3%, leading Trump 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 3%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.
I've had several emails from regular readers asking why my national numbers where often much lower than what they were seeing on other sites. For example, this Politico headline reads "Clinton leads Trump by 10 in national poll" that references the same Quinnipiac poll I have above. If you notice, her lead here is only 7.
So, what's going on? Simple: Many media sites are only using the two-candidate numbers (where Clinton is indeed up +10), whereas I decided two months ago to use the three- and four-candidate numbers when they were available.
The reasons are simple: 1) I think including Johnson and Stein gives a more accurate look at the national electorate, 2) as has been said many times, national numbers actually don't mean anything. I include this section merely as a snapshot of how things are going; the only numbers that ever matter are the ones at the top of the electoral map.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump rebukes racism claims as Clinton warns of radicalism
Hillary Clinton says Donald Trump has unleashed the "radical fringe" within the Republican Party, including anti-Semites and white supremacists, dubbing the billionaire businessman's campaign as one that will "make America hate again."
CNN -- Clinton is attacking the 'Alt-Right'...What is it?
Previously confined to darker corners of the internet, the alt-right is moving into the spotlight. Donald Trump linked himself to the movement last week by hiring Breitbart's Steve Bannon as his campaign CEO, elevating one of the leading purveyors of an ideology steeped in white nationalism, misogyny and anti-Semitism to his inner circle.
Fox News -- Clinton, Trump battle over 'racist' charge
Hillary Clinton returned to the campaign trail Thursday to try pinning a racist tag on Donald Trump, accusing him of “taking hate groups mainstream” -- while Trump accused his opponent of "lies" and "smears," and labeling "decent Americans as racists."
Huffington Post -- Hillary Clinton Excoriates Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton said Thursday that Donald Trump is “taking hate groups mainstream,” allowing a “radical fringe” to take over the Republican Party. Speaking at a rally in Reno, Nevada, Clinton focused on Trump’s divisive, racist comments, telling voters, “There’s no other Donald Trump. This is it.”
Politico -- GOP insiders: Moderating on immigration helps Trump
Donald Trump signaled this week he will “soften” his proposals on immigration policy — and nearly two-thirds of Republican insiders in battleground states think a more moderate stance would help the GOP nominee win the presidency.
The Hill -- Watchdogs warn of 'serious' conflicts of interest for Clinton Foundation
Donald Trump is not the only voice sounding the alarm over conflicts-of-interest surrounding Hillary Clinton's namesake nonprofit. Government watchdog groups –– all of them champions of heightened transparency, campaign finance reform and other Democratic priorities –– are also warning of potentially "very serious" conflicts of interest if the Clinton Foundation continues business as usual with Clinton in the White House.
Thursday, August 25, 2016
74 Days Till Election Day: New polls from New Mexico, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina
STATE POLLING
New polls today from New Mexico (Clinton +9), Florida (Trump +2), Arizona (Trump +7), and two polls from North Carolina (here and here) that have Clinton +2 and a tie between Clinton and Trump.
There's a reason swing states are called "swing" states, in that polling often swings back and forth, sometimes withing a single day. Such as Florida, where yesterday's poll had Clinton up by 14 and today's poll has Trump up by 2.
Some states are also know as "battleground" states because the races are so close that the voters feel as though they are being invaded by a hostile force of commercials, mailers and the like. Such as North Carolina, which has two polls on one day that show the race all but tied (our cumulative average still has Clinton with a 1.6% lead, but it's close to "virtually tied").
And North Carolina is actually the perfect definition of both labels, as the state has swung between the parties the last two elections, going for Obama in '08 and then Romney in '12. This one, barring a major collapse by one of the campaigns, will in all likelihood go down to the wire.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
Two new polls today, from Economist/YouGov and Rasmussen, with nearly identical numbers.
The Economist has Clinton up by 4, 42% to 38% over Trump, with Johnson at 6% ad Stein at 4%. Rasmussen also has Clinton up by 4, 42% to 38% over Trump, but has Johnson at 9% and Stein at only 2%.
One data bit to keep in mind about national polling that includes third-party candidates (as we do) is that it assumes respondents can easily vote for the candidate of their choice, However, that's easier said than done for third-party candidates, as Johnson is on the ballot in just 43 states and Stein in only 35. And considering that neither of them are polling high enough make the debate stage alongside Clinton Trump next month (as of this time), expect to see their support remain in the mid-to-low single digits.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Leader of British movement to leave EU joins Trump at rally
Donald Trump is linking his "movement to take back the country" to Britain's surprising vote to leave the European Union. He invited Nigel Farage, an architect of the withdrawal campaign, to join him on stage at a rally Wednesday night in Jackson.
CNN -- Clinton blasts 'ridiculous' Trump attacks
Hillary Clinton slammed Donald Trump and issued a strong defense of the Clinton Foundation Wednesday amid the Republican nominee's claims that she used public office for personal gain.
Fox News -- Dem officials mum as Clinton battles foundation allegations
As critical reports pile up about the access Clinton Foundation donors enjoyed with Hillary Clinton’s State Department – and Donald Trump and his allies hammer her over the allegations – few elected Democrats have rallied to the party nominee’s defense.
Huffington Post -- The Trump Campaign Is Making A Rally Big Mistake
Donald Trump’s surrogates might want to stop pointing to the crowds he attracts as proof that he isn’t running behind Hillary Clinton. Although Trump conceded earlier this month that “maybe crowds don’t make the difference,” he often brags about jam-packed rallies and some of his supporters follow his lead.
Politico -- Ethicists scoff at Clinton Foundation transition plan
The Clinton Foundation’s vague timetable to limit its involvement with overseas programs, and its insistence that Chelsea Clinton remain on its board, raise red flags for ethics watchdogs even as the charity vows to avoid conflicts of interest in a Hillary Clinton presidency.
The Hill -- Hardliners shrug off Trump’s softer tone on immigration
Immigration hardliners are embracing Donald Trump's new message on immigration, saying the softer tone conveys a more practical approach to deportation without subverting his tough positions on enforcement and border security.
New polls today from New Mexico (Clinton +9), Florida (Trump +2), Arizona (Trump +7), and two polls from North Carolina (here and here) that have Clinton +2 and a tie between Clinton and Trump.
There's a reason swing states are called "swing" states, in that polling often swings back and forth, sometimes withing a single day. Such as Florida, where yesterday's poll had Clinton up by 14 and today's poll has Trump up by 2.
Some states are also know as "battleground" states because the races are so close that the voters feel as though they are being invaded by a hostile force of commercials, mailers and the like. Such as North Carolina, which has two polls on one day that show the race all but tied (our cumulative average still has Clinton with a 1.6% lead, but it's close to "virtually tied").
And North Carolina is actually the perfect definition of both labels, as the state has swung between the parties the last two elections, going for Obama in '08 and then Romney in '12. This one, barring a major collapse by one of the campaigns, will in all likelihood go down to the wire.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
Two new polls today, from Economist/YouGov and Rasmussen, with nearly identical numbers.
The Economist has Clinton up by 4, 42% to 38% over Trump, with Johnson at 6% ad Stein at 4%. Rasmussen also has Clinton up by 4, 42% to 38% over Trump, but has Johnson at 9% and Stein at only 2%.
One data bit to keep in mind about national polling that includes third-party candidates (as we do) is that it assumes respondents can easily vote for the candidate of their choice, However, that's easier said than done for third-party candidates, as Johnson is on the ballot in just 43 states and Stein in only 35. And considering that neither of them are polling high enough make the debate stage alongside Clinton Trump next month (as of this time), expect to see their support remain in the mid-to-low single digits.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Leader of British movement to leave EU joins Trump at rally
Donald Trump is linking his "movement to take back the country" to Britain's surprising vote to leave the European Union. He invited Nigel Farage, an architect of the withdrawal campaign, to join him on stage at a rally Wednesday night in Jackson.
CNN -- Clinton blasts 'ridiculous' Trump attacks
Hillary Clinton slammed Donald Trump and issued a strong defense of the Clinton Foundation Wednesday amid the Republican nominee's claims that she used public office for personal gain.
Fox News -- Dem officials mum as Clinton battles foundation allegations
As critical reports pile up about the access Clinton Foundation donors enjoyed with Hillary Clinton’s State Department – and Donald Trump and his allies hammer her over the allegations – few elected Democrats have rallied to the party nominee’s defense.
Huffington Post -- The Trump Campaign Is Making A Rally Big Mistake
Donald Trump’s surrogates might want to stop pointing to the crowds he attracts as proof that he isn’t running behind Hillary Clinton. Although Trump conceded earlier this month that “maybe crowds don’t make the difference,” he often brags about jam-packed rallies and some of his supporters follow his lead.
Politico -- Ethicists scoff at Clinton Foundation transition plan
The Clinton Foundation’s vague timetable to limit its involvement with overseas programs, and its insistence that Chelsea Clinton remain on its board, raise red flags for ethics watchdogs even as the charity vows to avoid conflicts of interest in a Hillary Clinton presidency.
The Hill -- Hardliners shrug off Trump’s softer tone on immigration
Immigration hardliners are embracing Donald Trump's new message on immigration, saying the softer tone conveys a more practical approach to deportation without subverting his tough positions on enforcement and border security.
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
75 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Utah
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +16), Florida (Clinton +14), Missouri (Trump +1) and Utah (Trump +15).
Of the four new polls, three at first glance appear to be outliers (that would be all the ones with double-digit leads). The Virginia and Florida polls were conducted by relative newcomers to political polling, Roanoke College and Saint Leo University, respectively, and the Utah poll seems to be out of place after late Spring / early Summer polling showing a very tight race.
Appearances, however, can often be deceiving. At least at first glance. While the Roanoke and St. Leo groups are relatively new to the game, they are hardly neophytes, and their data and analytical procedures appear to be on par with other older and more established firms.
Such as Public Policy Polling (PPP), who conducted the Utah poll. Their data actually supports the trend established by the immediately previous poll in the state, which had Trump up +12. And, it should be noted, the Virginia polling also supports the baseline trend established by previous polls. The only poll that raises serious eyebrows is the Florida one, which even with Clinton trend up in the most recent polls, shows a much stronger support for her than any previous poll or trend.
Naturally, all three (or portions thereof) could end up being true outliers, which will be proven/disproven over the next two to three polls in each state. Which, in a nutshell, is why sites like this use cumulative averaging instead of just relying on the most recent polls, and only those polls.
With the change of Utah from "leaning" to "solid", our new map has Clinton with a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump and a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.9%
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Reuters/Ipsos has Clinton up +8, 41% to 33% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
This is the strongest poll showing Clinton has had since her post-convention "bounce". Also of note in the poll, 22% of likely voters said they would not pick either candidate, even though only 9% of respondents selected either of the main third-party candidates.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton Foundation donors got face time with her at State
More than half the people outside the government who met with Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state gave money — either personally or through companies or groups — to the Clinton Foundation. It's an extraordinary proportion indicating her possible ethics challenges if elected president.
CNN -- Clinton's health is fine, but what about Trump?
As Donald Trump and his allies attempt to raise dubious questions over Hillary Clinton's health, the Republican nominee has invited new scrutiny into his own medical history.
Fox News -- Where's Hillary? Clinton off campaign trail as Trump seeks comeback
Hillary Clinton is riding a summer wave in the polls – yet the Democratic nominee has left the campaign trail in recent days to fundraise in America’s wealthiest enclaves, potentially giving rival Donald Trump the opening he needs as he works to regain his political footing.
Huffington Post -- Why The Clinton Campaign Isn’t Attacking Trump As A Flip-Flopper
There is nothing steady about Donald Trump’s policy platform. To the extent that he takes positions on critical issues, the Republican nominee is prone to revising and obfuscating them.
Politico -- Hillary Clinton’s run-out-the-clock strategy
She is not planning on sitting for another televised armchair confessional to rehash regrets about a private email server. Nor is the campaign setting up the kind of war room employed last year to discredit a book that aimed to expose a quid-pro-quo relationship between Clinton Foundation donors and State Department officials.
The Hill -- Trump: Immigration policies ‘not meant to hurt people’
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Tuesday indicated he may be open to some changes to immigration laws. "There certainly can be a softening because we're not looking to hurt people," Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity during an interview scheduled to air during "Hannity" on Tuesday night, according to the Texas Tribune.
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +16), Florida (Clinton +14), Missouri (Trump +1) and Utah (Trump +15).
Of the four new polls, three at first glance appear to be outliers (that would be all the ones with double-digit leads). The Virginia and Florida polls were conducted by relative newcomers to political polling, Roanoke College and Saint Leo University, respectively, and the Utah poll seems to be out of place after late Spring / early Summer polling showing a very tight race.
Appearances, however, can often be deceiving. At least at first glance. While the Roanoke and St. Leo groups are relatively new to the game, they are hardly neophytes, and their data and analytical procedures appear to be on par with other older and more established firms.
Such as Public Policy Polling (PPP), who conducted the Utah poll. Their data actually supports the trend established by the immediately previous poll in the state, which had Trump up +12. And, it should be noted, the Virginia polling also supports the baseline trend established by previous polls. The only poll that raises serious eyebrows is the Florida one, which even with Clinton trend up in the most recent polls, shows a much stronger support for her than any previous poll or trend.
Naturally, all three (or portions thereof) could end up being true outliers, which will be proven/disproven over the next two to three polls in each state. Which, in a nutshell, is why sites like this use cumulative averaging instead of just relying on the most recent polls, and only those polls.
With the change of Utah from "leaning" to "solid", our new map has Clinton with a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump and a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.9%
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Reuters/Ipsos has Clinton up +8, 41% to 33% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
This is the strongest poll showing Clinton has had since her post-convention "bounce". Also of note in the poll, 22% of likely voters said they would not pick either candidate, even though only 9% of respondents selected either of the main third-party candidates.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton Foundation donors got face time with her at State
More than half the people outside the government who met with Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state gave money — either personally or through companies or groups — to the Clinton Foundation. It's an extraordinary proportion indicating her possible ethics challenges if elected president.
CNN -- Clinton's health is fine, but what about Trump?
As Donald Trump and his allies attempt to raise dubious questions over Hillary Clinton's health, the Republican nominee has invited new scrutiny into his own medical history.
Fox News -- Where's Hillary? Clinton off campaign trail as Trump seeks comeback
Hillary Clinton is riding a summer wave in the polls – yet the Democratic nominee has left the campaign trail in recent days to fundraise in America’s wealthiest enclaves, potentially giving rival Donald Trump the opening he needs as he works to regain his political footing.
Huffington Post -- Why The Clinton Campaign Isn’t Attacking Trump As A Flip-Flopper
There is nothing steady about Donald Trump’s policy platform. To the extent that he takes positions on critical issues, the Republican nominee is prone to revising and obfuscating them.
Politico -- Hillary Clinton’s run-out-the-clock strategy
She is not planning on sitting for another televised armchair confessional to rehash regrets about a private email server. Nor is the campaign setting up the kind of war room employed last year to discredit a book that aimed to expose a quid-pro-quo relationship between Clinton Foundation donors and State Department officials.
The Hill -- Trump: Immigration policies ‘not meant to hurt people’
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Tuesday indicated he may be open to some changes to immigration laws. "There certainly can be a softening because we're not looking to hurt people," Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity during an interview scheduled to air during "Hannity" on Tuesday night, according to the Texas Tribune.
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
76 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Ohio (Clinton +4), North Carolina (Trump +1) and South Carolina (Trump +4).
A second poll from Ohio in as many days has Clinton steady with a small lead. In other words, if you live in Ohio, expect to keep seeing and hearing a gazillion commercials between now and Election Day as well as having your mailbox all but overrun with political mailers. Of course, Ohioans are used to this, as the Buckeye State has been a swing state for many election cycles now.
Residents in the Carolinas, however, are not as used to such national attention, especially South Carolinians. The two new polls are mixed news for Trump: good news in that they are in his favor, bad news because he simply can't afford the time and money defending formerly solid Republican southern states instead of focusing on flipping some of the Democratic states such as Pennsylvania and Virginia, which are vital to any chance of victory for the GOP nominee.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Utah: Trump up by 5.2%
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
A new poll from NBC News/Survey Monkey has Clinton up +5 over Trump, 43% to 38%, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 5%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.3%.
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Clinton: Trump Health Allegations A 'Wacky Strategy'
(AP) -- Hillary Clinton is pushing back against charges that she's physically unfit for the White House.
The Democratic presidential candidate said the accusations are part of a "wacky strategy" by GOP rival Donald Trump and an "alternative reality" that's not focused on the kinds of issues that are most important to voters.
"I do feel sometimes like this campaign has entered into an alternative universe," she said in an appearance on ABC's "Jimmy Kimmel Live" taped Monday afternoon. "I have to step into the alternative reality and, you know, answer questions about, am I alive, how much longer will I be alive, and the like."
Clinton said she doesn't question Trump's health — she believes he's "healthy as a horse."
Trump Doubles Down On Deportations
(Politico) -- Donald Trump continued to deny weekend reports that he is reconsidering his plans for mass deportation Monday, repeating that he's intent on getting rid of the "bad people" in this country.
In a prerecorded interview with Fox News' Bill O'Reilly airing Monday night, the Republican nominee again refuted a report by BuzzFeed that he was open to legalization for undocumented immigrants, dismissing it as "false."
The report came on the heels of newly minted campaign manager Kellyanne Conway giving an interview Sunday morning in which she characterized Trump’s plan to deploy a deportation force as “to be determined.”
The Trump campaign found itself on the defensive Monday, with the nominee flatly denying that he was "flip-flopping" on the issue in an earlier interview with Fox News.
FBI Uncovers 15K Undisclosed Emails in Clinton Probe
(The Hill) -- Hillary Clinton, State Department lawyers confirmed before a federal judge on Monday.
The documents were found during the course of the FBI's investigation into the Democratic presidential nominee's use of a personal email server during her time as secretary of State. The number is almost 50 percent more than the 30,000 work-related documents that Clinton’s lawyers turned over to the State Department in 2014.
The agency has pledged to release the approximately 14,900 documents and State Department lawyers told District Judge James E. Boasberg on Monday that the agency is “prioritizing” the appraisal of the new emails.
But it remains unsettled whether the full set will be out before the presidential election on Nov. 8. Lawyers for the conservative watchdog group that has demanded the release have accused the agency of slow-walking the production.
Trump Calls For Special Clinton Prosecutor
(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton leads in the polls nationally and in key battleground states, but the flood of stories regarding her private email server and donations to the Clinton Foundation demonstrate the former secretary of state won't be able to completely outrun voter skepticism -- or Donald Trump.
Trump went on offense Monday, using the bulk of a speech in Akron, Ohio, to attack Clinton.
"No issue better illustrates how corrupt my opponent is than her pay for play scandals as secretary of state," Trump said. "I've become increasingly shocked by the vast scope of Hillary Clinton's criminality. It's criminality. Everybody knows it," he said as the crowd erupted in a sea of "Lock her up!" chants.
"The amounts involved, the favors done and the significant numbers of times it was done require an expedited investigation by a special prosecutor immediately, immediately, immediately," Trump said.
New polls today from Ohio (Clinton +4), North Carolina (Trump +1) and South Carolina (Trump +4).
A second poll from Ohio in as many days has Clinton steady with a small lead. In other words, if you live in Ohio, expect to keep seeing and hearing a gazillion commercials between now and Election Day as well as having your mailbox all but overrun with political mailers. Of course, Ohioans are used to this, as the Buckeye State has been a swing state for many election cycles now.
Residents in the Carolinas, however, are not as used to such national attention, especially South Carolinians. The two new polls are mixed news for Trump: good news in that they are in his favor, bad news because he simply can't afford the time and money defending formerly solid Republican southern states instead of focusing on flipping some of the Democratic states such as Pennsylvania and Virginia, which are vital to any chance of victory for the GOP nominee.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Utah: Trump up by 5.2%
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
A new poll from NBC News/Survey Monkey has Clinton up +5 over Trump, 43% to 38%, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 5%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.3%.
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Clinton: Trump Health Allegations A 'Wacky Strategy'
(AP) -- Hillary Clinton is pushing back against charges that she's physically unfit for the White House.
The Democratic presidential candidate said the accusations are part of a "wacky strategy" by GOP rival Donald Trump and an "alternative reality" that's not focused on the kinds of issues that are most important to voters.
"I do feel sometimes like this campaign has entered into an alternative universe," she said in an appearance on ABC's "Jimmy Kimmel Live" taped Monday afternoon. "I have to step into the alternative reality and, you know, answer questions about, am I alive, how much longer will I be alive, and the like."
Clinton said she doesn't question Trump's health — she believes he's "healthy as a horse."
Trump Doubles Down On Deportations
(Politico) -- Donald Trump continued to deny weekend reports that he is reconsidering his plans for mass deportation Monday, repeating that he's intent on getting rid of the "bad people" in this country.
In a prerecorded interview with Fox News' Bill O'Reilly airing Monday night, the Republican nominee again refuted a report by BuzzFeed that he was open to legalization for undocumented immigrants, dismissing it as "false."
The report came on the heels of newly minted campaign manager Kellyanne Conway giving an interview Sunday morning in which she characterized Trump’s plan to deploy a deportation force as “to be determined.”
The Trump campaign found itself on the defensive Monday, with the nominee flatly denying that he was "flip-flopping" on the issue in an earlier interview with Fox News.
FBI Uncovers 15K Undisclosed Emails in Clinton Probe
(The Hill) -- Hillary Clinton, State Department lawyers confirmed before a federal judge on Monday.
The documents were found during the course of the FBI's investigation into the Democratic presidential nominee's use of a personal email server during her time as secretary of State. The number is almost 50 percent more than the 30,000 work-related documents that Clinton’s lawyers turned over to the State Department in 2014.
The agency has pledged to release the approximately 14,900 documents and State Department lawyers told District Judge James E. Boasberg on Monday that the agency is “prioritizing” the appraisal of the new emails.
But it remains unsettled whether the full set will be out before the presidential election on Nov. 8. Lawyers for the conservative watchdog group that has demanded the release have accused the agency of slow-walking the production.
Trump Calls For Special Clinton Prosecutor
(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton leads in the polls nationally and in key battleground states, but the flood of stories regarding her private email server and donations to the Clinton Foundation demonstrate the former secretary of state won't be able to completely outrun voter skepticism -- or Donald Trump.
Trump went on offense Monday, using the bulk of a speech in Akron, Ohio, to attack Clinton.
"No issue better illustrates how corrupt my opponent is than her pay for play scandals as secretary of state," Trump said. "I've become increasingly shocked by the vast scope of Hillary Clinton's criminality. It's criminality. Everybody knows it," he said as the crowd erupted in a sea of "Lock her up!" chants.
"The amounts involved, the favors done and the significant numbers of times it was done require an expedited investigation by a special prosecutor immediately, immediately, immediately," Trump said.
Monday, August 22, 2016
77 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Iowa and Ohio
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Iowa (tied) and Ohio (Clinton +6). No real surprise from either state, as Iowa is most likely going down to the wire, while Clinton is stabilizing her support in Ohio. It's still a major battleground state, and will likely remain that way all the way to the wire as well, but it's been stadily moving in Clinton's favor the last several weeks.
We've also gone through out entire spreadsheet and double-checked with the TPM Poll Tracker, Election Graphs, and RCP Polls to make sure we hadn't missed any polls in the past two weeks as well as having the polls in proper order by date.
Turns out we missed one poll in Indiana and two polls In New Hampshire, plus had a few polls slightly out of sequence. And while Indiana stays solidly Republican, the two New Hampshire polls have just pushed the Granite State back into solid blue for the Democrats.
With the change, Clinton now has a 260 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.8%
Utah: Trump up by 5.2%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5%.
Note: There's been a good amount written over the past few days about the LATimes/USC poll that has Trump up +2 while all other polls have Clinton up +4 to +8. Short answer as to why we don't use it: limited sampling.
Longer answer: they are sampling a much smaller pool of people (just 400 a day), don't appear to screen for "likely voter", weight their results based on 2012 models (which are, obviously, not applicable with this election), and then use a rolling average from the past seven days to arrive at a "daily" figure It also only asks about Clinton and Trump, whereas nearly all the other national polls are including Johnson at least, if not Stein as well.
.As such, I don't include their results (as I don't include any other of the "daily tracking" polls that also use too-small polling samples).
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Trump Campaign Manager: Deportation Plans 'To Be Determined'
(CNN) -- It's still undecided whether Donald Trump will continue to support forced deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US, his campaign manager said Sunday.
"To be determined," said Kellyanne Conway, Trump's new campaign manager, after repeated questioning by CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union."
Conway was responding to reports about what was said in a meeting Trump held on Saturday with a Hispanic advisory council. Sources in the room told BuzzFeed that Trump spoke about a "humane and efficient" way to work with undocumented immigrants in the country currently, which was characterized by BuzzFeed as a way to legalize some and let them stay.
That would stand in sharp contrast with a central theme of the Trump campaign since the beginning, a hardline position on immigration focused on removing people in the country illegally.
Clinton Camp Halfway To $1 Billion Fundraising Goal
(AP) -- Hillary Clinton's campaign is halfway to its goal of raising a billion dollars for the 2016 race, according to her finance director.
Dennis Cheng announced the achievement on Thursday in a meeting with staff at the campaign's headquarters in Brooklyn, New York, according to a campaign aide who was present for the meeting but wasn't authorized to discuss internal campaign strategy and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Her campaign has resisted publicizing a fundraising target for the general election, fearing it would draw attention to big donors at a time when voters angry about the role of money in politics. She aimed to raise $100 million for her primary bid.
Clinton raised $90 million for her campaign and Democratic party committees in July, according to finance reports released on Saturday. She's maintained a staff of about 700 for months, opened up offices across the country and already spent $67 million on general election ads. This week, she'll spend at least $10 million more on ads.
Giuliani: Press Ignores Signs Of Clinton's Illness
(Politico) -- Continuing with the narrative that Hillary Clinton is unfit to be president, Rudy Giuliani, an adviser with Donald Trump's campaign, claimed Sunday there are videos online that show Clinton has an illness.
Giuliani said on "Fox News Sunday" that Clinton has "an entire media that constantly demonizes Donald Trump."
The former New York City mayor went on to say the media fail to point out how she has not held a news conference in over 200 days and her "several signs of illness."
The media "fails to point out several signs of illness by her; all you gotta do is go online," Giuliani said, before being interrupted by host Shannon Bream, who pointed out that Clinton's campaign has said there is no factual evidence to support those claims.
Pence Earns GOP Raves In First Month As Trump VP
(The Hill) -- He has comforted a weeping boy, defended the Gold Star Khan family and praised New Mexico’s Hispanic-American governor who backs immigration reform.
No, it’s not Ohio Gov. John Kasich. It’s Donald Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence.
The Republican Indiana governor and former congressman has been projecting a kinder, gentler Republican Party as he’s hopscotched across the country during his first month as the vice presidential nominee.
His brand of compassionate conservatism is a stark contrast to Trump's combative and often highly offensive style, helping to soften the image of the brash GOP presidential nominee and appeal to the establishment wing of the party, which has been completely put off by Trump.
New polls today from Iowa (tied) and Ohio (Clinton +6). No real surprise from either state, as Iowa is most likely going down to the wire, while Clinton is stabilizing her support in Ohio. It's still a major battleground state, and will likely remain that way all the way to the wire as well, but it's been stadily moving in Clinton's favor the last several weeks.
We've also gone through out entire spreadsheet and double-checked with the TPM Poll Tracker, Election Graphs, and RCP Polls to make sure we hadn't missed any polls in the past two weeks as well as having the polls in proper order by date.
Turns out we missed one poll in Indiana and two polls In New Hampshire, plus had a few polls slightly out of sequence. And while Indiana stays solidly Republican, the two New Hampshire polls have just pushed the Granite State back into solid blue for the Democrats.
With the change, Clinton now has a 260 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.8%
Utah: Trump up by 5.2%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5%.
Note: There's been a good amount written over the past few days about the LATimes/USC poll that has Trump up +2 while all other polls have Clinton up +4 to +8. Short answer as to why we don't use it: limited sampling.
Longer answer: they are sampling a much smaller pool of people (just 400 a day), don't appear to screen for "likely voter", weight their results based on 2012 models (which are, obviously, not applicable with this election), and then use a rolling average from the past seven days to arrive at a "daily" figure It also only asks about Clinton and Trump, whereas nearly all the other national polls are including Johnson at least, if not Stein as well.
.As such, I don't include their results (as I don't include any other of the "daily tracking" polls that also use too-small polling samples).
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Trump Campaign Manager: Deportation Plans 'To Be Determined'
(CNN) -- It's still undecided whether Donald Trump will continue to support forced deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US, his campaign manager said Sunday.
"To be determined," said Kellyanne Conway, Trump's new campaign manager, after repeated questioning by CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union."
Conway was responding to reports about what was said in a meeting Trump held on Saturday with a Hispanic advisory council. Sources in the room told BuzzFeed that Trump spoke about a "humane and efficient" way to work with undocumented immigrants in the country currently, which was characterized by BuzzFeed as a way to legalize some and let them stay.
That would stand in sharp contrast with a central theme of the Trump campaign since the beginning, a hardline position on immigration focused on removing people in the country illegally.
Clinton Camp Halfway To $1 Billion Fundraising Goal
(AP) -- Hillary Clinton's campaign is halfway to its goal of raising a billion dollars for the 2016 race, according to her finance director.
Dennis Cheng announced the achievement on Thursday in a meeting with staff at the campaign's headquarters in Brooklyn, New York, according to a campaign aide who was present for the meeting but wasn't authorized to discuss internal campaign strategy and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Her campaign has resisted publicizing a fundraising target for the general election, fearing it would draw attention to big donors at a time when voters angry about the role of money in politics. She aimed to raise $100 million for her primary bid.
Clinton raised $90 million for her campaign and Democratic party committees in July, according to finance reports released on Saturday. She's maintained a staff of about 700 for months, opened up offices across the country and already spent $67 million on general election ads. This week, she'll spend at least $10 million more on ads.
Giuliani: Press Ignores Signs Of Clinton's Illness
(Politico) -- Continuing with the narrative that Hillary Clinton is unfit to be president, Rudy Giuliani, an adviser with Donald Trump's campaign, claimed Sunday there are videos online that show Clinton has an illness.
Giuliani said on "Fox News Sunday" that Clinton has "an entire media that constantly demonizes Donald Trump."
The former New York City mayor went on to say the media fail to point out how she has not held a news conference in over 200 days and her "several signs of illness."
The media "fails to point out several signs of illness by her; all you gotta do is go online," Giuliani said, before being interrupted by host Shannon Bream, who pointed out that Clinton's campaign has said there is no factual evidence to support those claims.
Pence Earns GOP Raves In First Month As Trump VP
(The Hill) -- He has comforted a weeping boy, defended the Gold Star Khan family and praised New Mexico’s Hispanic-American governor who backs immigration reform.
No, it’s not Ohio Gov. John Kasich. It’s Donald Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence.
The Republican Indiana governor and former congressman has been projecting a kinder, gentler Republican Party as he’s hopscotched across the country during his first month as the vice presidential nominee.
His brand of compassionate conservatism is a stark contrast to Trump's combative and often highly offensive style, helping to soften the image of the brash GOP presidential nominee and appeal to the establishment wing of the party, which has been completely put off by Trump.
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