The Final Update: A Look Back and A Look Ahead

ELECTION POSTMORTEM

A full day has come and gone as the nation and the world comes to grips with the fact that, yes, the United States really did elect Donald Trump to become our 45th President. To say it has taken some a bit longer to process this than others would be a bit of an understatement.

Certainly, there are just as many people upset with the results as are applauding it, simply evidenced by the fact that Clinton actually won the popular vote, albeit by just 230,053 votes out of 119,616,001 cast. Which brings up an interesting statistical note that Democrats have now won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections, but only took the White House in four of those campaigns.

One change from Wednesday's update is the final electoral count has been adjusted to Trump winning 306 to 232, as New Hampshire ended up going to Clinton after all, as did the senatorial race going to Democrat Maggie Hassan over Republican Kelly Ayotte. The results were absolutely razor thin and may still be subject to a recount, but as of this time, the Democrats will hold 48 seats in the Senate, giving them enough votes (with the independents) to filibuster, but not enough (obviously) to pass any of their own agrenda.

And now that the election is (finally!) over, it's time to take a deep breath, sit back, maybe stretch a bit, and wait to see what's going to happen next. The one bit of advice I can give everyone is to never assume you can predict with President Trump will do. He's proven that time and time again during the primaries and the general election that he is not bound by convention or doing things "the way they've always been done."

He is his own man who has proven time and again that his way of doing things works, and considering he is about to accede to the highest office in the land, who is to say his method doesn't work. Certainly not Trump himself. He has often said his best advisor is himself, and in a career that has seen him succeed far more often than fail, even his most ardent critics have to admit he has accomplished a lot following that self-advice.

President Trump has many challenges and obstacles ahead of him. I could list them all, but there are plenty of other news and political sites out there that have dozens of reporters writing tens of thousands of words on the same thing, so I'll let the professionals do their thing.

For me, though, I will point out one thing to all those who worry about the future of the country moving forward: the Republic will stand. It has stood for 238 years, though a horrific civil war, two world wars, countless economic upheavals, presidents both great and small, honest and corrupt. It has risen to every challenge, every attack, and achieved greatness that has never been equaled in the history of the world.

We have tamed a continent, brought peace and prosperity to much of the world, lead the way in science, industry and the arts, and have inspired generations with our hope for a better life and a better future. And while we still have many problems and many challenges, we have the strength as a nation built over the past two centuries to believe we can rise to any occasion and succeed.

Take solace and take hope in our history, in our great culture, in our citizens who have embraced the ideals of freedom and independence, and rest assured that no matter what, the Republic will stand,

POLLING POSTMORTEM

There has been a lot written and postulated in the past day over "what went wrong?" with the polling, which obviously completely missed the boat when it came to predicting the election results. There are many theories: voters lied to pollsters either out of shame or distrust of the pollster, there were a lot of "hidden" voters, and FBI Director Comey's letter affected a lot of early voters, are among the three I've seen most often. Combined with the modern challenge of even getting people to respond (landlines are disappearing and internet polling is not a reliable replacement at this time), these all seem to be reasonable excuses.

But I disagree.

It's not that I think there aren't elements of those three theories at play, it's that I think the polling industry is trying to point to everyone other than themselves for missing the boat. I mentioned yesterday that when I broke down where the polls were mostly accurate vs where they were badly off, it was quite noticeable that the red states were the ones who way overperformed more often than not. And to me, the reason for that is simple and a problem endemic to the polling method itself: the concept of the "likely voter".

Pollsters want to be certain that the people who say they are voting for candidate "A" are actually going to do so. So they structure their questions to gauge how likely that voter will actually follow through. These questions are based on things like "did you vote in the primary" and "are you registered with the political party" and most importantly "how often have you voted in the past". The answers to these questions give a pollster a good feel for whether candidate "A" will actually get the promised vote. And thus, polls are weighted to give the more likely voters higher statistical strength in the polling model.

And this is where the polling model failed this year. Donald Trump was not a conventional candidate, nor was his support made up of conventional voters. And this isn't even hindsight speaking; this has been known since the day he made the announcement he was running for office. One had to only look at the turnout in the primaries, where Trump brought in tens of thousands of new voters to the polls in every state to see evidence of a growing surge in newcomers to the voting booth. But because there were new voters, many of whom weren't registered with a party, they didn't score high at all in the likely voter model. The simple fact that those voters, obviously, did show up at the polls and voted is where the polls failed.

So what's the fix? Pollsters will need to continue to build more reliable methods of reaching voters (online groups like YouGov seem to be growing in reliability and accuracy, which is a good direction to take), and at the same time will need to take a long hard look at their modeling, especially how they weight likely voters.

And maybe, just maybe, the media could stop relying solely on voter polls and maybe, just maybe, use some actual political science modeling, which was far more accurate in predicting the current outcome than the voter preference polls.

But since I happen to have a degree in political science, maybe I'm not as unbiased an observer as others. Or maybe we in the polisci world just need to do a better job of making our papers and reports flashier and easier for the low-attention-span "oh shiny!" mass media to understand.

FINAL RESULTS

Here's the final adjusted chart of my polling projections, the actual results, and the difference between the two, broken down in categories based on how accurate the projections ended up being.

Good Call	Projected		Actual		Change
New York	DEM	21.9	DEM	21.3	- 0.6
Oregon	DEM	11.2	DEM	10.6	- 0.6
Connecticut	DEM	13	DEM	12.2	- 0.8
New Jersey	DEM	13.7	DEM	12.2	- 0.9
Montana	GOP	19.4	GOP	20.5	+ 1.1
Nevada	DEM	1.3	DEM	2.4	+ 1.1
Colorado	DEM	3.5	DEM	2.1	- 1.4
Illinois	DEM	14.6	DEM	16	+ 1.4
Delaware	DEM	13	DEM	11.5	- 1.5
Virginia	DEM	6.4	DEM	4.9	- 1.5
Washington	DEM	16	DEM	17.5	- 1.5
Rhode Island	DEM	12.8	DEM	14.6	+ 1.8
Florida	DEM	0.5	GOP	1.3	+ 1.8
Texas	GOP	7.2	GOP	9.2	+ 2
Vermont	DEM	30.5	DEM	28.5	- 2
Pretty Close
Georgia	GOP	3.2	GOP	5.7	+ 2.5
California	DEM	25.3	DEM	28.2	+ 2.9
Arizona	GOP	1.5	GOP	4.3	+ 2.8
Michigan	DEM	2.5	GOP	0.3	+ 2.8
Pennsylvania	DEM	2.7	GOP	1.2	+ 3.9
Massachusetts	DEM	23.3	DEM	27.3	+ 4
Missed A Bit
Indiana	GOP	15.1	GOP	19.3	+ 4.2
Wisconsin	DEM	3.2	GOP	1	+ 4.2
Maryland	DEM	29.5	DEM	25.2	- 4.3
New Mexico	DEM	3.7	DEM	8.3	+ 4.6
Iowa	GOP	4.7	GOP	9.6	+ 4.9
Alaska	GOP	10.1	GOP	15.2	+ 5.1
Louisiana	GOP	14.2	GOP	19.7	- 5.5
Ohio	GOP	2.3	GOP	8.6	+ 6.3
Kansas	GOP	14.6	GOP	21	+ 6.4
Minnesota	DEM	7.9	DEM	1.4	- 6.5
Arkansas	GOP	19.7	GOP	26.6	+ 6.9
North Carolina	DEM	3.1	GOP	3.8	+ 6.9
Missed A Lot
Mississippi	GOP	10.9	GOP	18.5	+ 7.6
New Hampshire	DEM	7.7	DEM	0.1	- 7.6
South Dakota	GOP	21.4	GOP	29.8	+ 8.4
D.C.	DEM	80.2	DEM	88.7	+ 8.5
Nebraska	GOP	17.7	GOP	26.3	+ 8.6
South Carolina	GOP	4.9	GOP	14.1	+ 9.2
Hawaii	DEM	22.5	DEM	32.2	+ 9.7
Kentucky	GOP	19.7	GOP	29.8	+ 10.1
Nebraska	GOP	16.1	GOP	26.3	+ 10.2
Alabama	GOP	18	GOP	28.3	+ 10.3
Oklahoma	GOP	26.1	GOP	36.4	+ 10.3
Not Even Close
Missouri	GOP	8	GOP	19.1	+ 11.1
North Dakota	GOP	25	GOP	36.3	+ 11.3
Idaho	GOP	19.1	GOP	31.6	+ 12.5
Wyoming	GOP	35.1	GOP	47.6	+ 12.5
Utah	GOP	6.3	GOP	19	+ 12.7
West Virginia	GOP	27.6	GOP	42.2	+ 14.6
Tennessee	GOP	10.1	GOP	26.2	+ 16.1

The Day After: What Happened?

ELECTION POSTMORTEM 

Well...that was a long night.

And let me say, with all sincerity, congratulations to President-Elect Donald Trump. He ran the most unconventional (successful) campaign in modern presidential history and overcome what was just yesterday seen as near overwhelming odds.

So, what happened? Every prediction site was projecting a win for Hillary Clinton, this one included. The talk amongst everyone wasn't whether she would win, but by how much.

Except in the final tally (as of this morning), Trump beats Clinton 310 to 228.

There are four theories I have that account for this victory, two related to polling, and two of a political nature:

1. Polling in rural areas was off by often large margins, as non-urban turnout far exceeded what was expected,
2. Polling methods themselves are now outdated and increasingly inaccurate (both phone and internet-based),  
3. The United States is not nearly as progressive as many (most?) in the mainstream media had assumed and/or hoped for, 
4. Rural and suburban voters were fed up with the political status quo of both parties and were ready to burn down the proverbial house and start fresh.

Donald Trump, ridiculed by much of the mainstream media, disliked by much of the Republican establishment, and vilified by liberals and progressives as a racist, misogynistic buffoon, rose above all of those groups to tap into a core of anger, resentment and disillusionment to propel himself to victory. Trump openly dismissed many of the previous standards of campaigning, both politically and organizationally. 

And won. 

We'll be talking, writing, and reading about this campaign for decades. But for all the nitty-gritty analysis that will be coming starting today, one question will loom over everything: is this a personality-driven victory or an actual political movement?

Can Trump win over skeptical members of the Republican Party and reshape the GOP in his image? Can he reach across the aisle to moderates and progressives? Will he be able to build on his campaign success to govern successfully?

These are all questions that cannot be answered now, but will be in the forefront of everyone's mind as we move into the next four years under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Whether you support him or not, no one can deny one simple thing: we have absolutely no idea what's going to happen next. May we live in exciting times, indeed.

POLLING POSTMORTEM 

The entire point of this blog was to test out my customized statistical projection algorithm. So, did my algorithm work on a day when so many projections seemingly turned out to be wrong?

Yes and no. 

Yes, in the sense that when I had solid data to work with, it seemed to do no worse than projection methods used by the other major sites. And no, in the sense that it still missed far too many states by far too large a margin. My comfort there is that I am far from being alone in that respect, as the other sites also badly missed on those states.

The chart below shows my projections, the actual results, and the difference between the two. I've placed the states into five categories: "Good Call" (up to 2% difference), "Pretty Close" (2 to 4%). "Missed A Bit" (4 to 8%), "Missed A Lot" (8 to 12%), and "Not Even Close" (over 12%).

All told, I had 23 states predicted within the standard 4% margin-of-error, which is not bad but not great. On the flip side, I missed 13 states by over 10%, which is not good at all.

So what happened? 

Let's take a look at the states I completely whiffed on: Wyoming, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Alaska. All are conservative, mostly rural, and polled very lightly due to their not being remotely considered swing states. My theory is that the groundswell of rural support and turnout for Trump was vastly under-reported (and unexpected), which lead to such high-percentage misses. I also think that polling firms are going to have to rethink and redesign their own models to adjust for a more conservative landscape than they had assumed.

The same theory holds true for the "Missed A Lot" group. Again, mostly conservative (with the exception of D.C and Hawaii), mostly rural (again, with the exception of D.C), and except for Utah and to a smaller extent South Carolina and Missouri, lightly polled due to not being swing states. And Utah was a special case with the three-candidate aspect there making polling modeling more difficult.

But what about the states I got right? There, polling worked. And the states in the first two sections are a mix of urban and rural, swing and non-swing states. What's the main commonality? Look at the party affiliation: 17 out of 23 states leaned to the left, politically. 

Could it be that polling firms aren't as good at gauging support levels for conservatives as they are for progressives? I don't have an answer to that, but the results do rather support asking the question, at the very least.

For now, I'll say I've enjoyed the past six months of running this blog. I appreciate the support of the members of Fark who encouraged me to do this, and I appreciate the (rather surprising) number of people who made this site a part of their daily routine. I'll have a final wrap-up tomorrow and then...well, who knows? 

Good Call	Projected		Actual		Change
Connecticut	DEM	13	DEM	12.4	- 0.6
New York	DEM	21.9	DEM	21.2	- 0.7
Oregon	DEM	11.2	DEM	10.4	- 0.8
Indiana	GOP	15.1	GOP	16	+ 0.9
New Jersey	DEM	13.7	DEM	12.8	- 0.9
Nevada	DEM	1.3	DEM	2.4	+ 1.1
California	DEM	25.3	DEM	26.6	+ 1.3
Alabama	GOP	18	GOP	16.6	- 1.4
Illinois	DEM	14.6	DEM	16	+ 1.4
Delaware	DEM	13	DEM	11.5	- 1.5
Rhode Island	DEM	12.8	DEM	14.6	+ 1.8
Florida	DEM	0.5	GOP	1.4	+ 1.9
Texas	GOP	7.2	GOP	9.2	+ 2
Pretty Close
Georgia	GOP	3.2	GOP	5.9	+ 2.7
Maryland	DEM	29.5	DEM	32.3	+ 2.8
Arizona	GOP	1.5	GOP	4.4	+ 2.9
Michigan	DEM	2.5	GOP	0.5	+ 3
Colorado	DEM	3.5	DEM	2.6	- 0.9
Virginia	DEM	6.4	DEM	4.7	- 1.7
Vermont	DEM	30.5	DEM	28.5	- 2
Washington	DEM	16	DEM	18.5	+ 2.5
Montana	GOP	19.4	GOP	23.1	+ 3.7
Pennsylvania	DEM	2.7	GOP	1.1	- 3.8
Missed A Bit
Wisconsin	DEM	3.2	GOP	1	+ 4.2
Massachusetts	DEM	23.3	DEM	27.6	+ 4.3
New Mexico	DEM	3.7	DEM	8.3	+ 4.6
Iowa	GOP	4.7	GOP	9.4	+ 4.7
Louisiana	GOP	14.2	GOP	19.7	- 5.5
Arkansas	GOP	19.7	GOP	26.6	+ 6.9
Ohio	GOP	2.3	GOP	8.6	+ 6.3
Minnesota	DEM	7.9	DEM	1	- 6.9
North Carolina	DEM	3.1	GOP	3.8	+ 6.9
Kansas	GOP	14.6	GOP	21.9	+ 7.3
Mississippi	GOP	10.9	GOP	18.2	+ 7.3
New Hampshire	DEM	7.7	GOP	0.1	- 7.6
Missed A Lot
South Dakota	GOP	21.4	GOP	29.7	+ 8.3
D.C.	DEM	80.2	DEM	88.7	+ 8.5
Nebraska	GOP	17.7	GOP	26.6	+ 8.9
Kentucky	GOP	19.7	GOP	29.8	+ 10.1
Oklahoma	GOP	26.1	GOP	36.4	+ 10.3
Idaho	GOP	19.1	GOP	29.5	+ 10.4
Utah	GOP	6.3	GOP	16.9	+ 10.6
Hawaii	DEM	22.5	DEM	33.2	+ 10.7
South Carolina	GOP	4.9	GOP	15.6	+ 10.7
Missouri	GOP	8	GOP	19.1	+ 11.1
North Dakota	GOP	25	GOP	36.3	+ 11.3
Nebraska	GOP	16.1	GOP	27.8	+ 11.7
Not Even Close
Wyoming	GOP	35.1	GOP	47.6	+ 12.5
West Virginia	GOP	27.6	GOP	42.2	+ 14.6
Tennessee	GOP	10.1	GOP	26.2	+ 16.1
Alaska	GOP	10.1	GOP	28.3	+ 18.2

* Maine not included because, frustratingly, I can't get the numerical breakdowns for the separate congressional districts at this time. Also note that not all states have complete returns in yet, so this chart will likely change a bit between today and tomorrow.

Election Day 2016: The Final Polls and Projections

STATE POLLING

Today is Election Day. First and foremost, if you haven't already voted, please go out to the polls and cast your vote for the candidate and issues of your choice. It's one of the great privileges of being a citizen in that we have the voice and the choice of our leaders and laws.

And with that, it's time to review the polls. Of which there are a lot. A whole lot. As in, it would take several pushes of the "Pg Dn" key to list them all here. Every single state in the union has been polled at least twice, with each of the battleground states being polled multiple times. So, instead of posting links well over 100 new polls (yes, that many), I'm going post my final calculations for each of the swing states.

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6.4%
Utah: Trump up by 6.3%
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 4.7%
 
Leaning Republican

Georgia: Trump up by 3.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.5%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 0.5%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 3.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 3.7%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 6.4%

The final calculations for all 50 states and the District of Columbia are on the complete State Polling Averages page. And for those who want to check on a specific state (or states), here are the four main sites I use to gather polling data, where you can search to your statistical heart's content:

• FiveThirtyEight Polling Updates
• RealClear Politics Election Polls
• Election Graphs All States
• Talking Points Memo Poll Tracker

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

According to my math and all the polling data I've accumulated, here is my final projection for the Electoral College tally (not counting any potential faithless electors): Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump 322 to 216.

However, I will leave myself some wiggle room: fully twelve states are within the standard +/- 4% margin of error, and four states are within a +/- 2% margin, the most noticeable being Florida within +/- 1%.

That said, even if Florida goes to Trump and everything else holds to projection, Clinton would still win by a final tally of 293 to 245.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Americans choose between Clinton and Trump

After nearly two years of bitterness and rancor, America will elect its 45th president Tuesday, making Hillary Clinton the nation's first female commander in chief or choosing billionaire businessman Donald Trump, whose volatile campaign has upended U.S. politics.

CNN -- A historic moment arrives

Americans will cast their verdicts on Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Tuesday after an exhausting, acrimonious campaign that at times revolted the nation and tore at its fabric. History will be made no matter how the vote turns out.

Fox News -- Trump, Clinton make final pitches as voting begins

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton started off neck-and-neck in the 2016 presidential election, as Trump won over the voters of three New Hampshire precincts early Tuesday morning, 32-25.

Politico -- How to watch Election Day like a pro

More than 46 million early votes have already been cast. Now, on Election Day, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 million more votes will follow, depending on the level of turnout. In 2008, turnout spiked to 62.3 percent of eligible citizens. Four years later, voter turnout fell to an estimated 57.5 percent.

The Hill -- What to watch for on Election Day

Political junkies will be on edge Tuesday looking for any signs that might tell them if Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton will become the 45th president of the United States. Here’s what to watch for as the election unfolds.
 

The Day Before: New polls from Florida, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New York

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Florida (tied), Ohio (Trump +1, Clinton +1), Michigan (Clinton +5,  Clinton +5, Clinton +5), New Mexico (Clinton +5), Virginia (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +5), Iowa (Trump +6), and New York (Clinton +17).

So here we are, the day before Election Day. And after months after endless months of campaigning, it all comes down to the usual (or mostly usual) handful of states. And today's polls, coming on the heels of the latest FBI announcement, should relax the Clinton campaign staff. At least a bit.

Florida and Ohio are still very close, which was predicted six months ago, but the rest of the results are either good news or expected. And while many in the media like to keep the "horse race" narrative alive and kicking, the math has been calling for a solid Clinton victory for the past six months.

Granted, Trump had gained a bit of momentum in the final push, even going so far as to giving up control of his own Twitter account in an effort to stay on message, but the analytics show that it is highly unlikely it has been enough to change the projection of the race.

It is all but certain that tomorrow there will be a huge influx of new polls. I wouldn't be surprised to see all 50 states represented (with the battleground states having multiple polls). As such, I plan to be up early to crunch all the numbers to give my final predictions.

Then on Wednesday, I will post the side-by-side results of the actual results vs my predictions to see how well my algorithm worked. After that, well...maybe it's time to head back to the gym every morning or at the very least find a new hobby. Until the 2020 campaign starts.

Which will probably be Thursday. Or maybe Friday.

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 312 to 226. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Arizona: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
New Hampshire: Trump up by 0.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.2%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.4%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 3.7%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%
 
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Clinton email case handling brings tumultuous time for FBI

The FBI's handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation has created more turmoil for the bureau than any other matter in recent history, exposing internal tensions with the Justice Department and stirring concerns the famously apolitical organization unnecessarily injected itself into the campaign.

CNN -- FBI worked 'around the clock' to review emails in Clinton server probe

In the days since the FBI dropped a bombshell into the presidential race with the discovery of new emails relevant to the Hillary Clinton server investigation, bureau investigators worked "around the clock" to review the large volume of emails, two law enforcement officials told CNN.

Fox News -- FBI: email review completed, decision not to prosecute Clinton stands 

FBI Director James Comey said Sunday that the agency has reviewed all of the Hillary Clinton emails recently discovered in an unrelated case and that his conclusion in July not to prosecute Clinton after the FBI’s original investigation into her use of a private email server still stands.

Politico -- Trump rejects FBI's email conclusion

Reacting to news that the FBI won't change its determination in the Hillary Clinton email probe, Republican nominee Donald Trump made it clear he still regards her as guilty and is convinced she will ultimately face justice.

The Hill -- Clinton confidence grows after FBI news

Hillary Clinton backers are bullish about their chances for victory on Tuesday after another surprise from the FBI — this time in the Democratic nominee’s favor. FBI Director James Comey’s Sunday letter to Congress said recently-discovered emails had not changed his conclusion that Clinton should not face criminal charges for her use of a private email address and server as secretary of State.
 

The Final Weekend: New polls from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Florida Iowa, Colorado, Washington, Arizona, Michigan

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +6, Clinton +4, Clinton +2), North Carolina (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +1), Nevada (tied, Trump +5), Ohio (Clinton +1), Florida (Trump +1), Iowa (Trump +7, Clinton +1), Colorado (Clinton +5, tied), Washington (Clinton +12), Arizona (Trump +8), and Michigan (tied).

Is Clinton really in danger of losing the election after leading for the entire general campaign? That's the question on everyone's mind as Trump's numbers continue to improve in state after state, raising the possibility that he may pull off one of the greatest upsets in modern electoral history.

So, let's look at how he could get to 270:

1. Take Maine's 2nd District and its one EV. He currently leads there by 2.4% and has been leading all Summer, so this is plausible.
2. Win Hew Hampshire and its four EVs. As of today, the state has flipped over to the GOP side, though just barely (it's all but a virtual tie). This one looks like a coin flip.
3. Win Florida and its 29 EVs. This is the big prize. And he's only down by less than two points, so it's definitely in the realm of possibility.
4. Win Ohio and its 18 EVs. This is the second biggest prize. It's also at the "coin flip" stage, with a slight advantage to Trump.
5. Win Iowa and its 6 EVS. His lead is slowly increasing, so it's looking better for him there everyday.
6. Out West, sweep Nevada (6 EVs), Utah (6 EVs), and Arizona (11 EVs). All three states are looking more possible every day, as he's now leading in all three.
7. Win North Carolina and its 15 EVs. This would give him exactly 270 EVs and the keys to the White House. However, Clinton has been leading steadily, if not by much, for weeks there. This is likely the most difficult state for Trump to flip, but it's still polling within the margin-or-error, so it's definitely a possibility he could flip it over to the GOP side.

So, in summation, he needs to win everything in the current GOP columns, plus Florida and North Carolina. The other path, if he doesn't win North Carolina, is to win Michigan, which gives him 271 (and in this scenario, he doesn't even need the Maine EV). Or, less likely, if he doesn't win New Hampshire, he could still win in he flips either Michigan or Colorado.

So, the answer to our question is, yes, Clinton really is in danger of losing the election. It's not likely, but it's far less unlikely than it was just two weeks ago. The key to Tuesday night is to watch New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida. If Trump wins all three, it's all going to come down to the Western states and will be a long night for everyone. If Clinton wins all three (or even just North Carolina and Florida), then it's champagne time for the Democrats.

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

Two changes to the map today: New Hampshire switches from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican while Michigan moves from "likely" to "leaning" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 312 to 226.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Arizona: Trump up by 3.9%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.9%
New Hampshire: Trump up by 0.2%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 1.9%
Colorado: Clinton up by 2.4%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%
Michigan: Clinton up by 3.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.4%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%
 
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton take different strategies to shore up votes

Donald Trump is promising to take his campaign into traditional Democratic territory as a sign that he's not giving up on appealing to people outside the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton is focusing her efforts in the campaign's final days on energizing voters who usually support the Democratic nominee, but may need an extra boost.

CNN -- Trump rushed off stage at campaign rally; protester says he was roughed up

Donald Trump was rushed off a stage here Saturday by Secret Service agents during a campaign speech after an incident in the crowd near the front of the stage. A Secret Service spokesperson said in a statement there was a commotion in the crowd and an "unidentified individual" shouted "gun," though no weapon was found after a "thorough search."

Fox News -- Senate Battle: Race for control goes down to the wire

The presidential battle isn’t the only 2016 contest pundits are reluctant to call: The races expected to decide which party controls the Senate remain dramatically close in the final hours before Election Day.

Politico -- Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm

Nate Silver unloaded Saturday on the Huffington Post’s Ryan Grim, who accused the polling guru and founder of the prediction website fivethirtyeight.com of “changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.”

The Hill -- Experts hedge bets as election tightens

The gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continues to narrow as the candidates jet around the country in the final frenzy before Election Day. Clinton is relying on star power provided by LeBron James, Jay-Z, Beyonce, Katy Perry and others, while Trump forges ahead with his incursion into blue states.
 

The Final Weekend: New battleground polls from Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico

STATE POLLING

New battleground polls today from Georgia (Trump +2, Trump +4), Iowa (Trump +3), New Hampshire (tied, Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +6, Clinton +5, Clinton +1), Virginia (Clinton +7, Clinton +5), Wiconsin (Clinton +6), Michigan (Clinton +4, Clinton +5), and New Mexico (Clinton +3).

Other than New Hampshire, everything today is pretty much status quo: the candidates with small leads in swing states are maintaining those small leads in the swing states.

Other than New Hampshire.

We're not really sure what gotten under the skin of the voters in the Granite State, but Clinton's long running lead in the state has all but evaporated in the last four days, dropping down to an almost virtual tie in our cumulative averaging.

And with the map tightening up all across the board, those four electoral votes could end up being crucial, along with who wins the also-very-close Senatorial race could end up being the key to which party has control of the Senate.

The three Eastern states that will be most closely watched on Election Day will be New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida. If Clinton takes all three (or the two bigger ones), it's pretty much over. If Trump takes all three, or even just one of the big ones, it's going to be a much longer night for both campaigns...and those of us watching our news channel of choice.

We also have polls from Kansas (Trump +24), Indiana (Trump +10, Trump +11), New Jersey (Clinton +11), and Massachusetts (Clinton +30).

I'm not really sure why anyone felt it necessary to run two polls on Indiana, which has been solidly Trump all year, but memories of Obama's win of the state in 2008 still seem to haunt Republicans there, so I guess they just wanted some last-minute reassurance.

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

Leaning Democrat

New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Trump says he's fine by himself; Clinton hangs with Beyoncé

Donald Trump boasts that he doesn't need stars to fill his venues in the closing days of the presidential campaign. Maybe so, but the very people Hillary Clinton needs to shore up her campaign — millennials and minorities — appear all too happy to see her with singer Beyoncé and rapper husband Jay Z.

CNN -- North Carolina counties must restore voters to rolls, judge rules

A federal judge in North Carolina granted a preliminary injunction to the NAACP on Friday, holding that residents whose voter registrations were canceled in recent months because of a so-called "individual challenge law" must have their registration restored

Fox News -- Fight for Senate control going down to the wire

The presidential race has reverted to its form for much of the general election: a small but clear lead for Hillary Clinton. But the Senate? Who the heck knows? Democrats need five seats to regain the majority in the Senate, and it certainly looks like they could pull it off.

Politico -- National Enquirer bought rights to Trump affair story, but never published

The National Enquirer paid $150,000 to a former Playboy playmate for exclusive rights to her story about having an affair with Donald Trump, but it never published the story, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The Hill -- Melania Trump worked in US before getting proper visa

Melania Trump was paid more than $20,000 for modeling jobs in the United States before she had legal permission to work in the country, The Associated Press reported Friday.
 

The Final Week: New polls from Pennsylvania, Utah, Georgia, New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Texas

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +1), Utah (Trump +6, Trump +12, Trump +11), Georgia (Trump +1), New Hampshire (Trump +5, tied), Florida (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +6), and Texas (Trump +9, Trump +14).

Election Day is Tuesday. We know this. So do the vast majority of voters, 98% or so of whom have apparently made up their mind. So why are the polls jumping all over the place? Why are we seeing such swings day-to-day when there realisiticaly just aren't enough undecided voters out there to affect such changes?

Steven Shepard at Politico has a theory: when one candidate dominates headlines in a negative way, the supporters of that candidate are more likely to decline to take part in polls. It's an interesting theory, but my own take is harder to solve: I believe polling itself is broken.

The sharp decline in landlines, the less likely people are to even answer unknown numbers, the often sharp differences in how pollsters set up their preferential calculations (percent of each group as represented in the overall sample), and so forth, have all led to increasingly inaccurate polling.

One of the reasons sites like this use cumulative polling is to try and average out the swings. And many sites, like this one as well, use weighted averaging, which gives more "strength" to recent polls and less to older ones, under the theory the newer the poll, the more representative it us of the current status of the state. Yet we've seen often wild swings even with our cumulative weighted modeling.

How can a candidate in three polls over just two days be up five, tied, and up one? Or up six and twelve on the same day? Those are statistically huge swings (and those were just from today's polls). I sincerely doubt there are that many voters in New Hampshire who in less than two weeks went from a +12 for Clinton to a +5 for Trump. A seventeen point swing in less than two weeks isn't a sign of a huge change of heart, it's a sign (at least to me) of a major flaw in polling. And I never bought in to Texas being a swing state, at least not this year.

So, what can be done about it? I'll be honest: I have no idea. I'm not a pollster (though I've learned an awful lot since I started this blog a few months ago); I'm a statistics geek with a dusty political science degree who wanted to see if I could develop a better algorithm than was being used by other sites. Arrogant? A bit. Is the algorithm working? I won't know until next Wednesday when all the results are in. But as to fixing the problem...that's simply out of my area of expertise.

However, one thing I do know: there will be an awful lot of experts (both actual and armchair) who will be spending and lot of time (and money) trying to solve the polling problem. Until then...who really knows if any of the numbers I've been crunching for months have any basis in reality.

As for the predictions themselves, I just have to go with the data I am presented. And, as such, there are for changes to map today: Texas moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Utah moves from "leaning" to "likely" Republican, Georgia moves from "likely"to "leaning" Republican, and New Hampshire moves from "likely" to "leaning" Democratic.

Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Georgia: Trump up by 3.4%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

Leaning Democrat

New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.9%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Voter intimidation arguments head to federal court

Democrats will argue before a federal judge in New Jersey on Friday that Republicans are coordinating with GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump to intimidate voters, charges that the Republican Party says are not true in either the federal case or in the four other states where Democrats are waging similar battles.

CNN -- Democrats, Trump lawyers going to court early -- and often

As Democrats warn their supporters of voter suppression efforts and Donald Trump urges his followers to watch polling areas, lawyers from both sides are filing fiery legal briefs and laying the groundwork for potential challenges on Election Day.

Fox News -- Philly transit strike could cause Clinton, Democrats headaches

An ongoing transit strike in Philadelphia is raising concerns among some Democrats that the stand-off could depress voter turnout in the battleground state's deep-blue stronghold – but union officials say the agency is using Election Day as a scare tactic and unfair bargaining chip.

Politico -- Trump has a path, and if the polls are wrong, it’s wider than thought

Hillary Clinton leads in most national polls, and in enough battleground states to put her on pace to surpass the 270 electoral votes she needs Tuesday to become the next president. But not far beneath the surface, as Donald Trump has narrowed the gap following the late-breaking FBI announcement of a renewed review of emails related to her private server, lurks a question making Democrats squirm in these frenzied final days.

The Hill -- Four days to go: What to watch for

The presidential campaigns are sprinting for the finish amid tightening polls that show new opportunities for Donald Trump as he seeks a late comeback against Hillary Clinton.  "If the Cubs can do it, he can too," one Republican told The Hill.
 

The Final Week: New battleground polls from Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire

Sorry for the delay in getting the Thursday update out, but it was a rather late night last night. It was worth it, however, to see the Chicago Cubs win their first World Series title since 1908. Even this born-and-raised Dodgers fan can appreciate what a great win this was for the Cubs and their legions (and generations) of fans.

For a political reference, the last time the Cubs won it all, the popular Teddy Roosevelt honored his campaign promise not to seek a third term, and his then Secretary of War, William Howard Taft, went on to defeat three-time Democratic nominee William Jennings Bryan by an electoral total of 321-162 in the 1908 election.

STATE POLLING

New battleground polls today from Michigan (Clinton +3), Ohio (Trump +5), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), Florida (Clinton +2, Clinton +1), Nevada (tied, Trump +6), Colorado (tie, Clinton +3), Arizona (Trump +5, Trump +4), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Virginia (Trump +3, Clinton +5), Pennsylvania (Clinton +4, Clinton +2, Clinton +5, Clinton +4), Georgia (Trump +9), and New Hampshire (Trump +1).

With less than a week to go, polling firms are pulling out all the stops in the swing states...and this latest batch of polls can do nothing but buoy the spirits of the Trump campaign. They've regained the momentum in Ohio and Nevada, seem to have beaten off the threat in Georgia, are coalescing in Arizona, and have even made inroads in Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. He's still far behind, but is surging at a time when he absolutely has to show forward momentum.

The Clinton camp, however, is on the defensive and while not panicking (yet), has to be concerned. Colorado is an issue, Florida is still anyone's guess, Michigan is a real concern, and they better hope the Trump-favorable polls in Virginia and New Hampshire were just outliers. On the positive side, North Carolina appears to be holding along with Pennsylvania.

There were also new polls today from Oregon (Clinton +7), Missouri (Trump +15), Arkansas (Trump +20), and California (Clinton +20). Oregon is tightening up a but, but not enough to make anyone nervous on the Democratic side.

Five changes to the map today: Georgia moves from "leaning" to "likely" Republican, both Nevada and Ohio switch from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, and both Pennsylvania and Colorado move from "likely" to "leaning" Democratic.

Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222 Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%
Georgia: Trump up by 4.1%

Leaning Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Utah: Trump up by 2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.3%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.6%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Hacked emails show Clinton campaign communicated with State

A State Department official appeared to coordinate with Hillary Clinton's nascent presidential campaign hours before the former secretary of state's exclusive use of private emails was first detailed in a news account last year, newly released hacked emails show.

CNN -- Why Clinton's closing message is so somber

Crisscrossing the country to win over undecided voters in battleground states over the past few days, Clinton has been warning voters about what a Trump presidency would look like, casting the Republican nominee as a sexist bully who is temperamentally unfit and unqualified to be commander in chief.

Fox News -- FBI's Clinton Foundation investigation now 'a very high priority,' sources say

The FBI's investigation into the Clinton Foundation that has been going on for more than a year has now taken a "very high priority," separate sources with intimate knowledge of the probe tell Fox News.

Politico -- Trump teen rape accuser abruptly calls off news conference

A woman who has filed federal lawsuits accusing Donald Trump of repeatedly raping her two decades ago, when she was 13, abruptly canceled a news conference Wednesday where she was to detail her extraordinary claims against the GOP presidential nominee.

The Hill -- Republican voters coming home to Trump

Republican voters are finally coming home to Donald Trump after months of flagging support threatened to put the White House out of reach. As Republicans face up to the specter of a Hillary Clinton presidency, Trump’s numbers are on the rise.
 

The Final Week: New battleground polls from Texas, Maine, Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia

STATE POLLING

New battleground polls today from Texas (Trump +13), Maine CD2 (Clinton +2, Trump +3), Arizona (Trump +4), Ohio (Clinton +6), North Carolina (tied), Pennsylvania (Clinton +11, Trump +1), Michigan (Clinton +7), New Hampshire (Clinton +4), and Virginia (Clinton +4, Clinton +6).

Less than a week to go, and while some had predicted a major polling fallout from the latest Clinton email kerfluffle, if anything it has helped the Democratic candidate. She not only raised $11 million in the three days after the FBI director's letter was released (her largest three-day haul since securing the Democratic nomination), but has actually improved her electoral lead, at least for today.

The battleground map is consolidating, consisting of eight states with less than a 3% lead for either candidate: Georgia, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Add in Maine CD2, and the total represented by this group is 108 electoral votes. If Trump wins all eight of the core swing states (plus Maine CD2) and everything on his "likely" and "solid" list, he would have a total of 266 votes, four short of the number needed to win.

The only chance Trump has to win from the current map is to flip Ohio, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina -- all of which are possible -- and then take just one of the "likely" Democratic states, such as Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan or New Hampshire, all of which are currently polling outside the base margin-of-error.

To say this would be extremely difficult with six days left to campaign is a bit of an understatement. Trump has hampered himself with three problems: 1. substandard fundraising, 2. substandard get-out-the-vote ground operations, and 3. lack of consistent messaging. Clinton can outspend him 3-to-1 in the final week (and appears to be doing so), has a much better ground game, and is focused like a laser beam on messaging and where to make final campaign appearances.

For all the tightness of the national tracking polls, which have both candidates within 2-3 points of each other, the electoral math is clear: this race is Hillary Clinton's to lose.

And if she does, this would pretty much be the "stick a fork in and call it done" moment for current polling methodology.

New polls today as well from from non-battleground states of Kentucky (Trump +17), Indiana (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +14), Maine CD1 (Clinton +12, Clinton +6), Illinois (Clinton +12, Clinton +11), and California (Clinton +21). No real surprises here. Missouri had been the only state of this group even remotely in play, though not any longer.

Also, two days ago, SurveyMonkey released a 50-state poll that has been added to the database. No real surprises there, just more data points (which is what we live on, so to speak).

Four changes to the map today: Missouri moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Ohio switches from "leaning" Republican to "leaning" Democrat, Virginia moves from "solid" to "likely" Democratic, and Minnesota moves from "likely" to "solid" Democratic.

Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.8%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Georgia: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2%
Utah: Trump up by 1.6%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.5%

Leaning Democrat

Ohio: Clinton up by 0.4%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.8%

Likely Democrat

Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.2%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 5.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6.8%
 
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Clinton presses into Arizona, Trump focuses on Florida

Hillary Clinton is pressing into reliably Republican Arizona as she tries to steal a state away from Donald Trump. Her rival, reinvigorated by the FBI's new email review, is laser-focused on Florida, a marquee battleground state he can't win the White House without.

CNN -- FBI investigations into Trump-Russia ties yield little

The FBI has been conducting multiple investigations of alleged connections between Russia and Donald Trump, his presidential campaign or its backers. But none so far have yielded proof of criminal connections between the parties.

Fox News -- FBI releases documents on Bill Clinton's 2001 pardon of financier Rich

Only days before the presidential election, the FBI released an archive of documents from a long-closed investigation into Bill Clinton's 2001 presidential pardon of a fugitive financier, prompting questions from Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign about its timing.

Politico -- White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll-watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home.

The Hill -- FBI spurs ‘total chaos’ in election’s final days

Investigations. Leaks. Rumors. Innuendo. Welcome to the 2016 presidential campaign’s final days, which have been overwhelmed by the FBI’s handling of its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.