Election Day 2016: The Final Polls and Projections

STATE POLLING

Today is Election Day. First and foremost, if you haven't already voted, please go out to the polls and cast your vote for the candidate and issues of your choice. It's one of the great privileges of being a citizen in that we have the voice and the choice of our leaders and laws.

And with that, it's time to review the polls. Of which there are a lot. A whole lot. As in, it would take several pushes of the "Pg Dn" key to list them all here. Every single state in the union has been polled at least twice, with each of the battleground states being polled multiple times. So, instead of posting links well over 100 new polls (yes, that many), I'm going post my final calculations for each of the swing states.

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6.4%
Utah: Trump up by 6.3%
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 4.7%
 
Leaning Republican

Georgia: Trump up by 3.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.5%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 0.5%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 3.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 3.7%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 6.4%

The final calculations for all 50 states and the District of Columbia are on the complete State Polling Averages page. And for those who want to check on a specific state (or states), here are the four main sites I use to gather polling data, where you can search to your statistical heart's content:

• FiveThirtyEight Polling Updates
• RealClear Politics Election Polls
• Election Graphs All States
• Talking Points Memo Poll Tracker

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

According to my math and all the polling data I've accumulated, here is my final projection for the Electoral College tally (not counting any potential faithless electors): Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump 322 to 216.

However, I will leave myself some wiggle room: fully twelve states are within the standard +/- 4% margin of error, and four states are within a +/- 2% margin, the most noticeable being Florida within +/- 1%.

That said, even if Florida goes to Trump and everything else holds to projection, Clinton would still win by a final tally of 293 to 245.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Americans choose between Clinton and Trump

After nearly two years of bitterness and rancor, America will elect its 45th president Tuesday, making Hillary Clinton the nation's first female commander in chief or choosing billionaire businessman Donald Trump, whose volatile campaign has upended U.S. politics.

CNN -- A historic moment arrives

Americans will cast their verdicts on Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Tuesday after an exhausting, acrimonious campaign that at times revolted the nation and tore at its fabric. History will be made no matter how the vote turns out.

Fox News -- Trump, Clinton make final pitches as voting begins

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton started off neck-and-neck in the 2016 presidential election, as Trump won over the voters of three New Hampshire precincts early Tuesday morning, 32-25.

Politico -- How to watch Election Day like a pro

More than 46 million early votes have already been cast. Now, on Election Day, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 million more votes will follow, depending on the level of turnout. In 2008, turnout spiked to 62.3 percent of eligible citizens. Four years later, voter turnout fell to an estimated 57.5 percent.

The Hill -- What to watch for on Election Day

Political junkies will be on edge Tuesday looking for any signs that might tell them if Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton will become the 45th president of the United States. Here’s what to watch for as the election unfolds.