Third Debate Shaping Up, Little Overall Movement In National Polls

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Well, there are still technically 20+ candidates still in the running for the Democratic nomination for President, but the reality is that we are now down to just seven candidates who have been able to maintain a 2% or higher polling average in the past ten national polls. 

So for our purposes, we've culled out list down to those seven, although a good poll here are there could bring some back from below cut-off line. We've furthered refined the rankings to the top three candidates who are polling double digits, followed by the remaining candidates. 

That said, the Democratic National Committee is still being more generous in their requirements than we are, and have announced that there are now ten candidates qualified for the next round of debates in mid-September. For those wanting to put together scorecards, the ten are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, and Julián Castro.

Two more candidates — Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard — have made some significant progress toward qualifying, though it’s not clear if they’ll make it. The clock is ticking: the deadline to qualify is this coming Wednesday. Currently there will be only one night of debate — September 12 — if only ten candidates qualify. If more than ten make the cut, then a second night will be added and the DNC has a new round of headaches trying to figure out who appears on which night.

As for the polling itself, we have four new national polls this week from HarrisX, YouGov, CNN, and Morning Consult. Biden maintains his double digit lead, which Sanders and Warren swap spots in the top three, with Sander inching up just over a point while Warren falls back nearly two points. Everyone else stays pretty much in the same positions as they were the past several weeks. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As noted above, we have a fresh batch of for new polls since our last update, from HarrisX, YouGov, CNN, and Morning Consult.

The Top Three

• Biden -- 28 % (down 0.7 %)
• Sanders -- 17.4 % (up 1.1 %)
• Warren -- 15.3 % (down 1.8 %)
  

The Rest Of The Pack

• Harris -- 7.7 % (down 0.6 %)
• Buttigieg -- 5 % (down 0.3 %)
• O'Rourke -- 2.8 % (up 0.6 %)
• Booker -- 2.3 % (no change)
  

Outside The Polling

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.

NEW STATE POLLS 

We have redone our State Polling page to break it down into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We've also expanded the baseline to five polls (where available) to get a better feel for each state.

Of the "first four", we have one new poll from Nevada, where Biden maintains his strong lead in the Sagebrush State. Elsewhere, we have one other new poll, this one from Colorado where only four points separate Biden, Sanders, and Warren. Expect to see a good bit of attention paid to the Centennial State over the next year or so. 

Next weekend is a holiday, so our next update won't be until Saturday, September 7th. Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day Weekend.