Is The Warren "Surge" A Real Thing?

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

This past week's Democratic debate made three things clear: 1) Elizabeth Warren is the primary target for the other candidates now, 2) Bernie Sanders' health issues are (for now) not much of a concern, and 3) did we mention Elizabeth Warren is now the primary target for the other candidates?

 

The national media has been awash in stories about Warren's "surge" in the polls and how she's at least the "co-frontrunner" now. But do the numbers actually support these claims? Let's take a look.

 

Nationally, Warren has been ahead of Biden in four of the past ten polls, yet the three post-debate polls showed a noticeable drop in her support. At the state level, she now leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but is well behind in South Carolina, and has fallen to third place in Nevada among the "first four" states. Yet the most recent poll from California, one of the big "Super Tuesday" states, was her best poll yet in the Golden State, and pushes her to the lead there. 

 

So what to take from all of this? Biden is still the frontrunner, but with an asterisk. Warren is not quite up to co-equal status with him, currently six points behind him nationally, but her apparent ceiling is a lot higher, while Biden seems to have reached his peak support (for now) and isn't being helped at all by all the focus on his son Hunter and the Ukraine mess. 

 

As for Bernie Sanders, all eyes were on him during the debate to see how his recent heart attack would affect his performance. To the relief of his supporters (and likely, privately, to the disappointment of his competitors), the old lion was full of his usual energy and enthusiasm. Even so, he received virtually no polling bump from the debate.

For the rest of the candidates on stage, the time has come to seriously consider their other political options. Should they try to a Senate seat? Look to their local governor's race? Hitch their bandwagon to whom they think will win the nomination in hopes of a cabinet posting? It is quickly getting to the "fish or cut bait" moment, and the fish just aren't biting.
 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS
 

Biden gets a bit of extra breathing room this week, while everyone else stays in virtually the same positions as they were last week. 

 

The Top Two

• Biden -- 28.7% (up 0.9%)
• Warren -- 22.5% (down 1.1%)

The Lonely Middle

• Sanders -- 16% (up 0.7%)

The Rest Of The Pack

• Buttigieg -- 5.4% (up 0.3%)
• Harris -- 5.1% (up 0.3%)
• Yang -- 2.5% (down 0.2%)
• O'Rourke -- 2.2 % (up 0.1%)

 

Outside The Polling

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.
 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

 

This week, we have a big batch of new polls from the early states, with three from Iowa, four from New New Hampshire, and three from South Carolina. In both Iowa and New Hamphsire, Warren has moved to a three point lead over Biden and ten points ahead of Sanders. In South Carolina, Biden still holds a dominating lead over the rest of the pack, with a 23-point lead over a distant second-place Warren.

 

As for the Super Tuesday states, a new California poll had the best one yet for Warren, and pushes her to the top of the pack, but still with only five points separating her, Biden, and Sanders. The only other poll is from North Carolina, where Biden maintains his strong lead in the state.