STATE POLLING
New individual polls today from Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and New Jersey.
Also, in their first public polling this year, BallotPedia and Evolving Strategies conducted one the largest and most detailed polling of seven battleground states: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Of major note, with this latest batch of polls (today and yesterday), Ohio has now moved to blue, and Pennsylvania is right on the cusp of moving into the blue category. This means that Clinton now has a 245 to 142 lead over Trump with 151 still in play.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Utah: Trump up by 5%
Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%
Arizona: Trump up by 0.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
Iowa: Clinton up for 3.85%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.9%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.4%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
NATIONAL POLLING
New tracking poll today From FOX News, which has Clinton expanding her lead to +6.
Nationally, the composite polling average has Clinton up by 5.6%
TODAY'S TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Nate Silver: Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President
(FiveThirtyEight) -- How do you predict a general election with Donald Trump? We can think of a few basic approaches. One of them is to assert that precedent doesn’t apply to this election and that Trump’s case is sui generis. It’s not clear where that leads you, however.
If Trump is “unpredictable,” a phrase we heard used to describe him so often during the primaries, does that mean his chances of defeating Hillary Clinton are 50/50? If that’s what you think, you have the opportunity to make a highly profitable wager. Betting markets put Trump’s chances at only 20 percent to 25 percent instead.
Are The Polls Skewed Against Trump?
(Politico) -- Is there a pool of voters who are too embarrassed to admit to pollsters they’re voting for Donald Trump? As Trump consistently lags Hillary Clinton in general-election polls, his campaign is counting on it.
The notion of the “shy Trump voter” refers to the theory that there’s a group of voters who won’t admit their support for Trump in phone surveys, but will actually choose the controversial, presumptive GOP presidential nominee this fall.
Clinton-Obama Road Show Is Launching In North Carolina
(The Atlantic) -- There are two simple ways to cut through the bluster and the spin to see how a presidential campaign is really feeling about its prospects at any given moment: You can follow the money, and you can follow the plane.
Is a candidate retrenching by spending more time and ad dollars in states their party has won in the past and must hold onto in November? Or is he or she being more aggressive—and aspirational—by trying to expand the map and add states that are more difficult, and potentially less crucial, to capture the White House?
Trump Fundraising Emails Overseas Prompt Complaints Here And Abroad
(Washington Post) -- Sir Roger Gale was puzzled when a string of emails from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign landed in his inbox. As a Briton and a member of Parliament, Gale is barred by U.S. law from giving Trump money, much less voting for him. “I’ve gotten rid of most of that rubbish,” Gale said in an interview.
The emails to Gale were among a wave of fundraising pleas inexplicably sent by the Trump campaign in recent days to lawmakers in the United Kingdom, Iceland, Australia and elsewhere. The solicitations prompted watchdog groups in Washington to file two separate complaints Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission alleging that the Trump campaign was violating federal law by soliciting funds from foreign nationals.
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