Sunday, January 12, 2020

Iowa & New Hampshire Remain Close, National Race Looks The Same



WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

With one last debate to go before the Iowa caucuses, and Tom Steyer just making the cutoff, the race looks about the same as it did two months ago -- with one outlying exception in the form of Michael Bloomberg.
 
So what is Bloomberg up to? He is skipping the first four states, isn't going to get on the debate stage, and has already dropped over $200 million (and counting) on the race to basically get a hair over six percent support. Does he really think he can pull off a Super Tuesday upset or is his recent announcement that he'll keep paying his campaign staff to work for whoever the eventual nominee is a better clue as to his intentions?
 
One can only guess as to the working of the mind of a multi-billionaire, but our money is that his goal is no to win the White House or even have any formal role in a future Democratic administration (such as cabinet post, though he likely wouldn't turn down once of the plum ambassador spots if offered). It seems his real goal is to do whatever it takes to send Donald Trump packing. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have four new polls to add into the rolling average.

  • Biden -- 29.6%
  • Sanders -- 18.7%
  • Warren -- 14.8%
  • Buttigieg -- 7.3% 
  • Bloomberg -- 6.5% 
  • Yang -- 3.2% 
  • Klobuchar -- 2.9%

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls. And, as noted above, Julian Castro has officially ended his presidential campaign. 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being. 
 
Iowa remains very tight, with just a hair over four points separating the top four. As it stands now, Bernie Sanders is the lead, but that can (and likely will) change as the polls beginning to come fast and furious this month. 

IOWA 11/20/19 12/11/19 12/17/19 01/04/20 01/08/20
AVERAGE








Sanders 18 22 21 23 20
20.8
Buttigieg 26 18 24 12 16
19.2
Biden 12 23 15 23 15
17.6
Warren 19 12 18 16 17
16.4

New Hampshire is almost as close as Iowa, though there's a bit more separation amongst the tour four.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 11/25/19 11/27/19 12/09/19 01/03/20 01/08/20
AVERAGE








Sanders 16 26 15 27 18
20.4
Biden 12 14 17 25 19
17.4
Buttigieg 13 22 18 13 20
17.2
Warren 14 14 12 18 15
14.6

Nevada is looking good for Biden, though Steyer is suddenly coming on strong.

NEVADA 09/27/19 11/03/19 11/04/19 11/14/19 01/09/20
AVERAGE








Biden 22 29 30 24 23
25.6
Warren 18 19 22 18 12
17.8
Sanders 22 19 19 18 17
17
Buttigieg 4 7 5 8 6
6
Steyer 4 4 3 5 12
5.6

And in South Carolina, Biden maintains his massive lead, though here again we see Tom Steyer coming out of nowhere.

SOUTH CAROLINA 11/14/19 11/18/19 12/03/19 12/12/19 01/09/20
AVERAGE








Biden 45 33 39 27 36
36
Sanders 15 11 13 20 14
14.4
Warren 17 13 10 19 10
13.8
Buttigieg 8 6 10 9 4
7.4
Steyer 2 5 7 5 15
6.8


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