Biden Starts 2020 Strong, Buttigieg Falls Back, Castro Drops Out

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

And we're back after the winter holidays with a slew of new national polls, some strong fundraising numbers, the loss of Julian Castro, and the first time Marianne Williamson has been in the national news in a while...albeit not for the reason she hoped.

 

As we start off 2020 and gear up for the Iowa caucuses -- which are less than a month away -- the national race has settled down. Joe Biden maintains the steady lead he has had for the past eight months, followed about ten point back by Bernie Sanders, with Elizabeth Warren a few points further behind. In the single digits are Pete Buttigieg (who has dropped back to where he was two months ago), relative newcomer Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, and Amy Klobuchar.

 

However, the numbers is Iowa are, not too surprising, not a reflection of the national numbers. Pete Buttigieg still leads all candidates, with a virtual three-way tie for second behind him between Sanders, Biden and Warren. In other words, with less than a month away from the caucuses, there is literally no way to predict with any accuracy who will emerge a winner from the cornfields of Iowa.

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have ten new national polls over the past two weeks. Which answers one question: how much support does $200 million in advertising get you. The answer is: 5.4%, at least if your name is Michael Bloomberg. 

 

• Biden -- 28.1%
• Sanders -- 18.9%
• Warren -- 14.4%
• Buttigieg -- 7.1% 
• Bloomberg -- 5.4% 
• Yang -- 3.5% 
• Klobuchar -- 2.9%

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls. And, as noted above, Julian Castro has officially ended his presidential campaign. 

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first four caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. We are tracking the other states, but are focusing on the first two groups for the time being.

There were no new state polls in the past two weeks because of the holidays. That said, expect a rash of new polls over the next several weeks, especially in the first four states.