Buttigieg, Sanders Take Early Lead. Now On To Nevada

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

So we're halfway through February and the Democratic nomination race has all the clarity of a Magic 8 Ball. That keeps reading, "Answer Unclear, Try Again Later".

Officially, Bernie Sanders won the most votes in New Hampshire, leading Pete Buttigieg 25.7% to 24.4%. However, they each were awarded the same number of delegates, meaning that Buttigieg (now that the Iowa results are finally official) still leads the delegate race. By one. 22 to 21 over Sanders. 

Sanders' early support already has a lot of party big-wigs (a good portion of whom are more akin to the Obama centrist mode than the Sanders leftwing mode) worried that a Sanders nomination would end up with the same result as Hillary Clinton's nomination: another win for Donald Trump.They are making their concerns known in a number of ways, but so far have not shown that they are planning to do anything more than write hand-wringing editorials.

As Buttigieg, his campaign has to be quite pleased with the early results. Considering that just six months ago, the vast majority of Americans had never heard of the mayor, and even among those who had, most were still unsure how to spell or pronounce his name. The very idea of an openly homosexual small town mayor being a viable candidate was the realm of fiction to most. But even more unexpected is that the main concern about his candidacy is that he's too moderate. 

And then there's Joe Biden. The charismatic former Vice President who has lead every national poll since he entered the race last summer...until now (see below). And even worse, he badly underperformed in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His star and aura of inevitability have been both severely dimmed. Biden, as expected, remains very upbeat, with success expected in Nevada and South Carolina especially. But just as many are now looking elsewhere, which does not bode well for the now-former frontrunner.

And who are a lot of the wavering Biden supporters looking at? Michael Bloomberg has been saturating the airwaves and social media with an unprecedented advertising blitz (estimated to be near $300 million and counting), making a strong case for those voters. And he has definitely made an impact on both the national and Super Tuesday state polls. However -- and there's always a "however" in today's political world -- the former New York City mayor has a lot of baggage. And that baggage is being hauled out on a daily basis as his candidacy moves from "rich man playing at politics" to "this guy appears to actually be serious".

But enough about the men. How are the women doing? Just two months ago, Elizabeth Warren was riding a wave of rising poll numbers and fawning editorials about her ambitious plans. Now, she's third place in the delegate count, coming off disappointing results, and seemingly becoming an afterthought amongst the political prognosticators. At the same time, Amy Klobuchar has made a surprisingly robust showing and is getting her moment in the sun. That said, her support appears to be a little too late and not enough for the make-or-break Super Tuesday primaries.

Oh, and for those keeping track, Andrew Yang, Deval Patrick, and Michael Bennet have all dropped out of the race. Tom Steyer remains in, hoping for success in Nevada and South Carolina, as does Tulsi Gabbard, though no one really seems to know why, as her polling numbers remain barely above one percent.

NEW STATE POLLS 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. 

The next two contests are in Nevada (a caucus state), and South Carolina (a primary state). These are the first two states with large minority voting blocs: Hispanic/Latino in Nevada, and African-American in South Carolina. 

And while polling has been sparse in Nevada, we do have five relatively recent polls to gauge a baseline for what to expect. And this is where the Biden campaign needs to right their ship. It's also a real challenge for Buttigieg and Klobuchar to maintain their recent momentum.

	CBS	Fox News	Fox News	USA Today	Rev-Jou		Average
Biden	33	24	23	19	18		23.4
Sanders	23	18	17	18	25		20.2
Warren	21	18	12	11	13		15
Buttigieg	9	8	6	8	10		8.2
Steyer	2	5	12	8	11		7.6
Klobuchar	2	2	2	4	10		4

As for South Carolina, this in many ways is being seen as Biden's last stand. And the polls are very favorable to him. If he can pull of wins here and In Nevada, the race opens up again right before Super Tuesday.

	Post Co	Fox News	Courier	ECU	Post Co		Average
Biden	27	36	25	37	28		30.6
Sanders	20	14	20	14	20		17.6
Steyer	5	15	18	19	14		14.2
Warren	19	10	11	8	7		11
Buttigieg	9	4	7	4	8		6.4
Klobuchar	2	1	2	2	7		2.8

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have five new polls to add to the national average, which now takes a back seat to the state polling as we are into the state-by-state voting phase of the nomination process. What is noticeable about this week is that it's the very first time since Biden entered the race that he has not been in the national lead, even though only a tenth of a point separates him from Sanders.

• Sanders -- 23.2%
• Biden -- 23.1% 
• Warren -- 14.1%
• Bloomberg -- 12%
• Buttigieg -- 8.8%
• Klobuchar -- 4.4%

All of the other remaining candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls. Or ended their campaigns, as Andrew Yang did this past week.