On To New Hampshire, Leaving Behind A Mess In Iowa

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

So who won the Iowa caucuses? That's a question we may never know the answer to, as the entire process was flawed from beginning to the much delayed end. As it stands, the state party released the following results:

	Delegates	State Delegates	Vote Totals
Buttigieg	13	564	43195
Sanders	12	562	45826
Warren	8	387	34771
Biden	6	341	23691
Klobuchar	1	264	21181
Yang	0	22	1780
Steyer	0	7	413

And when breaking things down by county, Pete Buttigieg took 58, Bernie Sanders won 20, Joe Biden came out ahead in eight, Amy Klobuchar picked up five (mainly along the border with her home state of Minnesota), Elizabeth Warren won a single county, and seven other counties ended up in ties.

So, the question remains: who won? Sander claims to have won a "very strong victory" while Buttigieg also claimed victory based on delegate and county wins. Politico has a very good breakdown of all the data for you to try and make up your own mind. But, every candidate has called into question the results and the way the caucuses where run overall. Put simply, it was a complete debacle from beginning to end. 

Which means it's now on to New Hampshire, where Sanders and Buttigieg are now seen as the co-frontrunners while both Warren and Biden are facing some serious questions about the campaign strategies. Aside from Friday night's debate, which was a bit more boisterous that usual, we have the five most recent polls to try and divine how things might turn out.

	Emerson	Suffolk	WHDH	Bos. Globe	NBC		Average
Sanders	32	24	31	24	25		27.2
Buttigieg	23	23	24	25	21		23.2
Warren	13	13	11	14	14		13
Biden	11	11	11	11	13		11.4
Klobuchar	9	6	9	6	8		7.6

But then things change quite a bit, both geographically and demographically, as the nomination process moves out west to Nevada and then down south to South Carolina. In Nevada, Biden has a near seven-point lead over Sanders -- 25.6% to 19% -- with Warren in third place at 16.2%. And in South Carolina, Biden's lead is even stronger, leading Sanders 31.6% to 15.8%. And interestingly, Tom Steyer has come on very strong in the two most recent polls there, climbing into third place with 12.4% support of state voters, ahead of Warren.

So, polishing up our crystal ball, it's entirely conceivable that once we get to Super Tuesday, there could be three self-proclaimed front-runners in Sanders, Buttigieg, and Biden. And that's when things get real interesting as that's when Michael Bloomberg shows up on state ballots for the first time. 

NEW STATE POLLS 

 

Our State Polling page breaks down the states into two relevant sections: the first caucuses and primaries in February, and the then the "Super Tuesday" primary on March 3rd. The only new polls this week are from New Hampshire and South Carolina. 

UPDATED NATIONAL RANKINGS

As for the national numbers, we have three new polls to add to the national average, which now takes a back seat to the state polling as we are (finally) into the voting phase of the nomination process.

 

• Biden -- 28%
• Sanders -- 22.2%
• Warren -- 15%
• Bloomberg -- 9.3%
• Buttigieg -- 7%
• Klobuchar -- 4.1%
• Yang -- 4%

 

All of the other announced candidates were below 2% or did not show in the national polling from the aggregate of the past ten national polls.