Saturday, November 5, 2016

The Final Weekend: New battleground polls from Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico

STATE POLLING

New battleground polls today from Georgia (Trump +2, Trump +4), Iowa (Trump +3), New Hampshire (tied, Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +6Clinton +5, Clinton +1), Virginia (Clinton +7, Clinton +5), Wiconsin (Clinton +6), Michigan (Clinton +4, Clinton +5), and New Mexico (Clinton +3).

Other than New Hampshire, everything today is pretty much status quo: the candidates with small leads in swing states are maintaining those small leads in the swing states.

Other than New Hampshire.

We're not really sure what gotten under the skin of the voters in the Granite State, but Clinton's long running lead in the state has all but evaporated in the last four days, dropping down to an almost virtual tie in our cumulative averaging.

And with the map tightening up all across the board, those four electoral votes could end up being crucial, along with who wins the also-very-close Senatorial race could end up being the key to which party has control of the Senate.

The three Eastern states that will be most closely watched on Election Day will be New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida. If Clinton takes all three (or the two bigger ones), it's pretty much over. If Trump takes all three, or even just one of the big ones, it's going to be a much longer night for both campaigns...and those of us watching our news channel of choice.

We also have polls from Kansas (Trump +24), Indiana (Trump +10, Trump +11), New Jersey (Clinton +11), and Massachusetts (Clinton +30).

I'm not really sure why anyone felt it necessary to run two polls on Indiana, which has been solidly Trump all year, but memories of Obama's win of the state in 2008 still seem to haunt Republicans there, so I guess they just wanted some last-minute reassurance.

ELECTORAL PROJECTION

No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Utah: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%

Leaning Republican

Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

Leaning Democrat

New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Trump says he's fine by himself; Clinton hangs with Beyoncé

Donald Trump boasts that he doesn't need stars to fill his venues in the closing days of the presidential campaign. Maybe so, but the very people Hillary Clinton needs to shore up her campaign — millennials and minorities — appear all too happy to see her with singer Beyoncé and rapper husband Jay Z.

CNN -- North Carolina counties must restore voters to rolls, judge rules

A federal judge in North Carolina granted a preliminary injunction to the NAACP on Friday, holding that residents whose voter registrations were canceled in recent months because of a so-called "individual challenge law" must have their registration restored

Fox News -- Fight for Senate control going down to the wire

The presidential race has reverted to its form for much of the general election: a small but clear lead for Hillary Clinton. But the Senate? Who the heck knows? Democrats need five seats to regain the majority in the Senate, and it certainly looks like they could pull it off.

Politico -- National Enquirer bought rights to Trump affair story, but never published

The National Enquirer paid $150,000 to a former Playboy playmate for exclusive rights to her story about having an affair with Donald Trump, but it never published the story, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The Hill -- Melania Trump worked in US before getting proper visa

Melania Trump was paid more than $20,000 for modeling jobs in the United States before she had legal permission to work in the country, The Associated Press reported Friday.
 

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