Thursday, November 3, 2016

The Final Week: New battleground polls from Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire

Sorry for the delay in getting the Thursday update out, but it was a rather late night last night. It was worth it, however, to see the Chicago Cubs win their first World Series title since 1908. Even this born-and-raised Dodgers fan can appreciate what a great win this was for the Cubs and their legions (and generations) of fans.

For a political reference, the last time the Cubs won it all, the popular Teddy Roosevelt honored his campaign promise not to seek a third term, and his then Secretary of War, William Howard Taft, went on to defeat three-time Democratic nominee William Jennings Bryan by an electoral total of 321-162 in the 1908 election.

STATE POLLING

New battleground polls today from Michigan (Clinton +3), Ohio (Trump +5), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), Florida (Clinton +2, Clinton +1), Nevada (tiedTrump +6), Colorado (tie, Clinton +3), Arizona (Trump +5, Trump +4), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Virginia (Trump +3, Clinton +5), Pennsylvania (Clinton +4, Clinton +2, Clinton +5, Clinton +4), Georgia (Trump +9), and New Hampshire (Trump +1).

With less than a week to go, polling firms are pulling out all the stops in the swing states...and this latest batch of polls can do nothing but buoy the spirits of the Trump campaign. They've regained the momentum in Ohio and Nevada, seem to have beaten off the threat in Georgia, are coalescing in Arizona, and have even made inroads in Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. He's still far behind, but is surging at a time when he absolutely has to show forward momentum.

The Clinton camp, however, is on the defensive and while not panicking (yet), has to be concerned. Colorado is an issue, Florida is still anyone's guess, Michigan is a real concern, and they better hope the Trump-favorable polls in Virginia and New Hampshire were just outliers. On the positive side, North Carolina appears to be holding along with Pennsylvania.

There were also new polls today from Oregon (Clinton +7), Missouri (Trump +15), Arkansas (Trump +20), and California (Clinton +20). Oregon is tightening up a but, but not enough to make anyone nervous on the Democratic side.

Five changes to the map today: Georgia moves from "leaning" to "likely" Republican, both Nevada and Ohio switch from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, and both Pennsylvania and Colorado move from "likely" to "leaning" Democratic.

Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222 Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.6%
Georgia: Trump up by 4.1%

Leaning Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Utah: Trump up by 2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.7%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.5%

Likely Democrat

Virginia: Clinton up by 4.3%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.6%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Hacked emails show Clinton campaign communicated with State

A State Department official appeared to coordinate with Hillary Clinton's nascent presidential campaign hours before the former secretary of state's exclusive use of private emails was first detailed in a news account last year, newly released hacked emails show.

CNN -- Why Clinton's closing message is so somber

Crisscrossing the country to win over undecided voters in battleground states over the past few days, Clinton has been warning voters about what a Trump presidency would look like, casting the Republican nominee as a sexist bully who is temperamentally unfit and unqualified to be commander in chief.

Fox News -- FBI's Clinton Foundation investigation now 'a very high priority,' sources say

The FBI's investigation into the Clinton Foundation that has been going on for more than a year has now taken a "very high priority," separate sources with intimate knowledge of the probe tell Fox News.

Politico -- Trump teen rape accuser abruptly calls off news conference

A woman who has filed federal lawsuits accusing Donald Trump of repeatedly raping her two decades ago, when she was 13, abruptly canceled a news conference Wednesday where she was to detail her extraordinary claims against the GOP presidential nominee.

The Hill -- Republican voters coming home to Trump

Republican voters are finally coming home to Donald Trump after months of flagging support threatened to put the White House out of reach. As Republicans face up to the specter of a Hillary Clinton presidency, Trump’s numbers are on the rise.
 

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