STATE POLLING
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +16), Florida (Clinton +14), Missouri (Trump +1) and Utah (Trump +15).
Of the four new polls, three at first glance appear to be outliers (that would be all the ones with double-digit leads). The Virginia and Florida polls were conducted by relative newcomers to political polling, Roanoke College and Saint Leo University, respectively, and the Utah poll seems to be out of place after late Spring / early Summer polling showing a very tight race.
Appearances, however, can often be deceiving. At least at first glance. While the Roanoke and St. Leo groups are relatively new to the game, they are hardly neophytes, and their data and analytical procedures appear to be on par with other older and more established firms.
Such as Public Policy Polling (PPP), who conducted the Utah poll. Their data actually supports the trend established by the immediately previous poll in the state, which had Trump up +12. And, it should be noted, the Virginia polling also supports the baseline trend established by previous polls. The only poll that raises serious eyebrows is the Florida one, which even with Clinton trend up in the most recent polls, shows a much stronger support for her than any previous poll or trend.
Naturally, all three (or portions thereof) could end up being true outliers, which will be proven/disproven over the next two to three polls in each state. Which, in a nutshell, is why sites like this use cumulative averaging instead of just relying on the most recent polls, and only those polls.
With the change of Utah from "leaning" to "solid", our new map has Clinton with a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump and a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.9%
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Reuters/Ipsos has Clinton up +8, 41% to 33% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
This is the strongest poll showing Clinton has had since her post-convention "bounce". Also of note in the poll, 22% of likely voters said they would not pick either candidate, even though only 9% of respondents selected either of the main third-party candidates.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton Foundation donors got face time with her at State
More than half the people outside the government who met with Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state gave money — either personally or through companies or groups — to the Clinton Foundation. It's an extraordinary proportion indicating her possible ethics challenges if elected president.
CNN -- Clinton's health is fine, but what about Trump?
As Donald Trump and his allies attempt to raise dubious questions over Hillary Clinton's health, the Republican nominee has invited new scrutiny into his own medical history.
Fox News -- Where's Hillary? Clinton off campaign trail as Trump seeks comeback
Hillary Clinton is riding a summer wave in the polls – yet the Democratic nominee has left the campaign trail in recent days to fundraise in America’s wealthiest enclaves, potentially giving rival Donald Trump the opening he needs as he works to regain his political footing.
Huffington Post -- Why The Clinton Campaign Isn’t Attacking Trump As A Flip-Flopper
There is nothing steady about Donald Trump’s policy platform. To the extent that he takes positions on critical issues, the Republican nominee is prone to revising and obfuscating them.
Politico -- Hillary Clinton’s run-out-the-clock strategy
She is not planning on sitting for another televised armchair confessional to rehash regrets about a private email server. Nor is the campaign setting up the kind of war room employed last year to discredit a book that aimed to expose a quid-pro-quo relationship between Clinton Foundation donors and State Department officials.
The Hill -- Trump: Immigration policies ‘not meant to hurt people’
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Tuesday indicated he may be open to some changes to immigration laws. "There certainly can be a softening because we're not looking to hurt people," Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity during an interview scheduled to air during "Hannity" on Tuesday night, according to the Texas Tribune.
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