Tuesday, August 9, 2016

90 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Utah, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Georgia

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Utah (Trump +12), Illinois (Clinton +19), Pennsylvania (Clinton +9), and Georgia (Clinton +7).


The good news for Team Trump is that Utah is settling down and heading back towards it's usual dark red status (though it's still at a cumulative +5.5 and therefore in the "leaning" category for the moment). 


The good news for Team Clinton is everything else: Illinois continuing to maintain a double-digit lead, Pennsylvania holding steady as solid blue, and most interestingly of all, Georgia 
flipping to "leaning Democrat", something that hasn't happened since Bill first ran for President.

Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a new projected overall lead of 362 to 176. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:


Leaning Republican


Utah: Trump up by 5.5%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Leaning Democrat

Nevada: Clinton up by 1%

North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1% 
Georgia: Clinton up by 1.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6% 
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3% 
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9% 
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.5%

NATIONAL POLLING


New poll today from Monmouth that gives Clinton a 13-point lead and is the first time she has hit the 50% preference threshold in any national poll. This is a four-candidate poll which is also interesting in that it has Johnson at 16%. If he can average 15% or better in national polls, he will get an invite to the Presidential debates, something no third-party candidate has done since Ross Perot. 


The current composite polling average has Clinton leading by 7.9%, trending upwards.


TOP POLITICAL STORIES


Trump Tries To Reset Campaign With Major Economic Speech


(Washington Post) -- Seeking to put the most difficult stretch of his campaign behind him, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump used a major economic speech Monday to reach out to two voting blocs that remain critical to his faltering chances of winning in November: traditional fiscal conservatives and disaffected blue-collar workers.


But Trump faced a new round of resistance from within his party that threatened to stall his effort to move beyond the uproar he caused last week. In an opinion column published by The Washington Post late Monday, Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) became the latest sitting Republican senator to declare that she will not support Trump. In addition, dozens of national security officials who served in GOP administrations signed a letter saying that he is “not qualified” to be president.


Reading from a teleprompter at the Detroit Economic Club and pausing calmly when protesters interrupted him, Trump assailed Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and cast himself as the only change candidate on economic issues. He did so in part with tax-cutting, regulation-curbing plans that are squarely mainstream in his party and in part with his now-familiar attacks on the forces of globalization that have unnerved many workers. He took swipes at free-trade deals championed by GOP leaders and attacked immigrants and refugees.


50 GOP Officials Warn Trump Would Put Nation’s Security ‘at Risk’


(New York Times) -- 
Fifty of the nation’s most senior Republican national security officials, many of them former top aides or cabinet members for President George W. Bush, have signed a letter declaring that Donald J. Trump “lacks the character, values and experience” to be president and “would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.”

Mr. Trump, the officials warn, “would be the most reckless president in American history.”

The letter says Mr. Trump would weaken the United States’ moral authority and questions his knowledge of and belief in the Constitution. It says he has “demonstrated repeatedly that he has little understanding” of the nation’s “vital national interests, its complex diplomatic challenges, its indispensable alliances and the democratic values” on which American policy should be based. And it laments that “Mr. Trump has shown no interest in educating himself.”

“None of us will vote for Donald Trump,” the letter states, though it notes later that many Americans “have doubts about Hillary Clinton, as do many of us.” 

GOP Senator Susan Collins Disavows Support For Trump

(NPR) -- Maine Sen. Susan Collins is the latest high-profile Republican to announce she cannot support her party's presidential nominee this fall.


"I will not be voting for Donald Trump for president," the centrist GOP lawmaker wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. "This is not a decision I make lightly, for I am a lifelong Republican. But Donald Trump does not reflect historical Republican values nor the inclusive approach to governing that is critical to healing the divisions in our country."


The four-term senator has long been critical of Trump, saying after his attack on a federal judge of Mexican heritage that comments like those made it "very difficult" for her to support the Republican nominee.


Two Benghazi Parents Sue Hillary Clinton for Wrongful Death, Defamation


(NBC News) -- 
The parents of two Americans killed in the 2012 terrorist attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities in Benghazi, Libya, filed a wrongful death lawsuit in federal court Monday against Hillary Clinton.

In the suit, Patricia Smith and Charles Woods, the parents of Sean Smith and Tyrone Woods, claim that Clinton's use of a private e-mail server contributed to the attacks. They also accuse her of defaming them in public statements.

Smith was an information management officer and Woods was a security officer, both stationed in Benghazi. "The Benghazi attack was directly and proximately caused, at a minimum by defendant Clinton's 'extreme carelessness' in handling confidential and classified information," such as the location of State Department employees in Libya, the lawsuit said.
  

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