Wednesday, August 31, 2016

68 Days Till Election Day: New polls from 45 states

STATE POLLING

Ipsos/Reuters just dropped the single largest number of polls so far this year: 45 states. Plus Monmouth has a poll in Pennsylvania, just to add a little extra to the polling gumbo today.

As such, instead of listing all 46 new polls line-by-line, I'll post all the updated results on the State Polling Averages page as well as the updated battleground numbers here.

The biggest change with all the new data is that our prediction map has changed a bit, with a rather interesting shift in the battleground map. Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 182 with 22 too close to call.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Leaning Republican

South Carolina: Trump up by 5.4%
Arizona: Trump up by 3.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.2%

Virtually Tied

Missouri: Trump up by 0.9%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.6%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.9%

Leaning Democrat

North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.2%
Oregon: Clinton up by 5.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%

NATIONAL POLLING

New polls today from PPP and NBC News.

Clinton leads by 5 in the PPP poll, 42% to 37% over Trump, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 4%. In the NBC News poll, Clinton leads by 4, 41% to 37% over Trump, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 5%.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Trump has surprise Mexico visit ahead of immigration speech

Donald Trump will be taking his first foreign trip as the Republican presidential nominee on Wednesday, making a quick and unexpected visit to Mexico, a nation he derided as the home of rapists and criminals as he launched his campaign.

CNN -- Trump lifts ban on media outlets, at least for pool duty

Donald Trump's ban on The Washington Post, BuzzFeed and other media outlets may not be over -- but it does appear to have loosened. Four of the news organizations that Trump has blacklisted from covering his campaign events are all listed on the September rotation for a new print press pool that will cover Trump.

Fox News -- FBI to release Clinton probe files

Hillary Clinton is facing the possibility of new revelations on her personal email scandal on multiple fronts, as the FBI prepares to release some of the documents from its investigation in a matter of days – and a watchdog group sends the Democratic presidential nominee a detailed set of questions she’s expected to answer “under oath” by next month.

Huffington Post -- Democrats Ask FBI To Probe Trump-Russia Links After Their Party Was Hacked

The FBI should investigate whether there was any collusion between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russian hackers suspected of penetrating Democratic servers, according to a letter sent to the bureau by top House Democrats on Tuesday.

Politico -- Clinton camp blasts Trump's Mexico visit

Donald Trump's meeting in Mexico with President Enrique Peña Nieto ahead of his immigration speech Wednesday night in Phoenix will not change anything about what he has previously said about the country or its people, a top aide for Hillary Clinton's campaign said.

The Hill -- 5 things to watch for in Trump's immigration speech

Donald Trump heads to Arizona Wednesday for a pivotal immigration speech that could put to rest weeks of uncertainty. The GOP nominee has publicly wrestled with his signature issue for more than a week, prompting intense media and political speculation as well as concern from some of his most ardent supporters.
 

3 comments:

  1. Can you link to Ipsos/Reuters new polls, I can't find them anywhere. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. All the individual links are at http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com (click on each state for the Ipsos/Reuters data).

    ReplyDelete