Thursday, August 18, 2016

81 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Mississippi, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado

STATE POLLING

New polls from 
Mississippi (Trump +13), Michigan (Clinton +11), Indiana (Trump +11), Virginia (Clinton +11), Iowa (Clinton +2), Missouri (Trump +3), and Colorado (Clinton +8).

Seven new polls in one day have changed up the map (yet again). With so many states in play, this has become the new norm.

For Clinton, the good news is that Virginia is back in solid blue territory, albeit just barely. She's also holding steady in Colorado and Michigan, which bodes well for her chances come November.

The good news for Trump is that Mississippi, which had earlier this year showed signs of being in play, is now safely in the red column, along with Indiana. He also has moved both Iowa (along with Nevada) into the "virtually tied" category. Converting both those states to red would give him 12 badly needed electoral votes, though still well short of the goal of 270. 

Currently, Clinton has a 256 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 192 with 12 too close to call. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
  
Leaning Republican

South Carolina: Trump up by 5.8%
Utah: Trump up by 4.3%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Virtually Tied

Iowa: Clinton up by 0.4%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%

Leaning Democrat

Ohio: Clinton up by 2.1% 
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2% 
Florida: Clinton up by 4.3% 
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.1%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll from Economist/YouGov has Clinton up +6, leading Trump 41% to 35%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 3%. 


The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Senior Republicans Say RNC Must Stick With Trump

(CNN) -- Senior Republicans in Washington are quietly advising the Republican National Committee to continue its financial investment behind Donald Trump, arguing that the committee needs to help keep the race competitive with Hillary Clinton or risk an electoral bloodbath that would flip control of Congress.

As some former and current GOP officials are urging RNC Chairman Reince Priebus to abandon Trump and shift resources down-ticket, others say the party committee needs to prevent Trump from losing by such a large margin that it would make it virtually impossible to hang onto endangered Republican seats.

"The more they can focus on hurting Hillary Clinton, the better we will do" down-ticket, said one top Republican who asked not to be named talking party strategy. "They should stick with Trump."

The concerns highlight a growing split among the party establishment about how to handle their nominee as he struggles to stay competitive with Clinton in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire -- all states with GOP senators battling to hang onto their seats.

Trump Campaign: 'I Think It Helps Us To Be A Little Bit Behind'

(Politico) -- Donald Trump's new campaign manager Kellyanne Conway put a positive spin Thursday on the Republican nominee's recent swoon in national and state polls.

"I think it helps us to be a little bit behind, and we are. It lights a fire under us and reminds us what we need to do to get this done," Conway said during a two-part interview on CNN's "New Day." As far as what needs to be done, Conway remarked, "it's several things." 

Beyond the topline results showing Clinton in the lead, Conway noted that the former secretary of state's "fundamentals are still poor."

"It's not as if a majority of Americans now say I like her or I much trust her. She has a terrible gender gap among men, basically half of the electorate, that has not been able to be turn around. And I don't know she has many places to go. In other words, she's a very defined individual," Conway continued. "And for whatever reason, because she's certainly surrounded by many talented professionals and smart people, for whatever reason, they're running a campaign about Donald Trump and not about Hillary Clinton's vision."

Trump Goes To War Against Media

(The Hill) -- Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is steeling himself for a protracted battle against an increasingly hostile press, adding the media to the list of establishment institutions he intends to crush on his way to the White House.

Trump’s stunning move to make Breitbart News Executive Chairman Steve Bannon his campaign’s CEO was a decision to shake up his faltering campaign, but was also a clear response to the complaints about the coverage of his candidacy.

Under Bannon’s leadership, Breitbart has championed Trump’s rise while adopting a provocative and combative tone towards the press, the GOP’s congressional leadership and others who have criticized or questioned the nominee.

Bringing Bannon into the Trump tent will almost certainly lead to a new chapter in the fight between Trump and the media, which is already engaged in a fierce debate over how to cover the GOP nominee.

Is Russia Hacking The U.S. Election?

(BBC) -- Hacking tools allegedly developed by the US National Security Agency (NSA) were dumped online by a group calling itself Shadow Brokers. It follows a string of recent leaks of data from the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

There are also now suspicions that the Clinton Foundation, a charitable body, may have been targeted.

Is this part of a Russian campaign to damage the US and even influence the presidential election in November, or are things a little more complicated than that?

Analysis of the files released by Shadow Brokers has revealed a group of malware that can be used to hack US-made firewalls and routers. Indeed, the tech firms Cisco and Fortinet have warned customers that there are some serious exploits in the dump that affect their products.
  

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