ALGORITHM UPDATE
After a lengthy conversation with a mathematics professor at my local university, I have further refined the algorithm I use in my predictive factoring of each state. I am still using a cumulative weighting system, which gives more "weight" to newer polls, but have adjusted the weighting factor.
STATE POLLING
New polls from Texas (Trump +6), Florida (Clinton +9), and Virginia (Clinton +7).
These three polls pretty define what is currently happening in this race: Clinton is solidifying her leads in the very states Trump absolutely has to win to have any chance of claiming the Presidency, and Trump is barely ahead in Texas. Texas! Even so, the Lone State State is still solidly red on the map, but inching much closer to the line than anyone might have expected.
Naturally, the refined algorithm has changed up the map a bit...but not as much as you may have expected. Basically, it changed three states from "solid to "lean" for the Democrats: New Hampshire, Virginia, and (a bit surprisingly) Connecticut.
As it now stands, Clinton has a 243 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 346 to 192 (which remains unchanged).
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.8%
Utah: Trump up by 4.3%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.9%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.3%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.2%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll from NBC News/SM which Clinton up by 6, leading Trump 43% to 37%, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 4%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.2%, holding relatively steady.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Trump Campaign Undergoes Major Overhaul
(CNN) -- Donald Trump's campaign is undergoing a major staff shakeup with less than three months to Election Day, adding two officials to top posts overseeing his struggling campaign.
Trump has named Steve Bannon, the executive chairman of Breitbart News and a former investment banker, to the post of chief executive and promoted Kellyanne Conway, a senior adviser and pollster to his campaign, to the position of campaign manager, Conway confirmed to CNN early Wednesday morning.
Paul Manafort, the Trump campaign's chairman and chief strategist, will stay on as campaign chairman, Conway said. "I look at it as an expansion of the team. Paul remains as Chairman," Conway told CNN.
The news came as tensions mounted inside Trump's campaign in recent weeks and as Trump's relationship with Manafort soured to the point that several people close to the campaign warned that a major staff shakeup might be imminent, sources close to the campaign told CNN.
FBI Defends Decision Not To Charge Clinton
(Washington Post) -- The FBI on Tuesday forcefully defended its decision not to criminally charge Hillary Clinton in connection with her use of a private email server as secretary of state in a letter to lawmakers that laid out its rationale for refusing to do so.
The letter was sent to House Oversight Committee lawmakers the same day that the bureau released to the GOP-controlled Congress a variety of material from its investigation.
It marked yet another occasion in which FBI leadership responded to – and in some cases, rebutted – GOP claims about why the Democratic presidential nominee should have been charged. But the materials turned over to lawmakers – which included an investigative summary; reports known as “302s” containing interviews with Clinton and others; and classified emails found on her private server – may give Republicans fodder to criticize Clinton in the months before the election.
Trump Makes Claims On Clinton's Health
(The Hill) -- Donald Trump is raising questions about Hillary Clinton’s health as he grapples with low poll numbers and the reverberations from several controversies.
In a speech discussing terrorism on Monday, Trump alleged that Clinton “lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on” the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Trump also alluded to a purported lack of vigor on Clinton’s part last week, when he said that her speeches “don’t last long. They’re like 10 minutes and let’s get out of here.
“Go back home and go to sleep,” the GOP presidential nominee continued. “Three days later, she gets back up and does another one and goes back home and goes to sleep.”
Democrats: Leaks Could Include Russian Lies
(Politico) -- Democratic leaders are putting out a warning that could help inoculate Hillary Clinton against an October cyber surprise: Any future mass leaks of embarrassing party emails might contain fake information inserted by Russian hackers.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is among those sounding that alarm, echoing security experts who say Russian security services have been known to doctor documents and images or bury fictitious, damaging details amid genuine information.
For hackers to resort to such tactics would be highly unusual, but security specialists say it’s a realistic extension of Moscow’s robust information warfare efforts.
Pelosi aired her concerns during a Saturday night conference call with Democratic lawmakers and aides who had been stung by a dump of their emails and phone numbers, according to a source on the call.
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