Thursday, August 11, 2016

88 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Wisconsin. Kansas

STATE POLLING

New polls from Wisconsin (Clinton +13), and Kansas (Trump +5).


At the risk of piling on the Trump campaign, the polling news just continues to be bad for the GOP candidate. Wisconsin remains well of out reach (and improving for Clinton), while rock-solid reliably Republican Kansas has seen their support for Trump drop 12 points since the last poll. 

While Trump does remain competitive -- he's within the margin-of-error in eight of the battleground states that represent a total of 102 Electoral votes -- he simply cannot afford the time (and money) to play defense in traditionally red states such as Utah, Arizona, Missouri, and most of all Kansas. 

Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 362 to 176. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Leaning Republican

Utah: Trump up by 5.5%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Leaning Democrat

Nevada: Clinton up by 1%
Georgia: Clinton up by 1.4%
Florida: Clinton up by 1.6% 
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.8% 
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.9% 
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9% 
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.5% 

NATIONAL POLLING

A new poll from Bloomberg has Clinton up +4 in a four-candidate field, up +6 head-to-head with Trump. Johnson sits at 9%, six points behind where he needs to be to claim a debate podium.


The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading by an even 7%, trending downward. It appears that Clinton's post-convention "bounce" has begun to settle down, though she does remain about 2 points ahead of where she was before either of the conventions were held.

TOP POLITICAL STORIES

Secret Service Spoke to Trump Campaign About 2nd Amendment Comment

(CNN) -- A US Secret Service official confirms to CNN that the USSS has spoken to the Trump campaign regarding his Second Amendment comments.

"There has been more than one conversation" on the topic, the official told CNN. But it's unclear at what level in the campaign structure the conversations occurred.

The campaign told the USSS that Donald Trump did not intend to incite violence, according to the official.

The controversy erupted on Tuesday afternoon when Trump said at a rally that Second Amendment defenders might be able to stop Clinton from appointing justices to the Supreme Court who could weaken gun rights.

Trump Denies Conversation With Secret Service

(The Hill) --  Donald Trump on Wednesday disputed a CNN report that the Secret Service spoke with his campaign about his “Second Amendment people” remarks.

"No such meeting or conversation ever happened - a made up story by 'low ratings' @CNN," the Republican presidential nominee tweeted. 

Trump's response came just hours after the network reported the agency spoke with campaign officials on multiple occasions about his Tuesday comments about “Second Amendment people” possibly taking action against Hillary Clinton if she wins the election. 

CNN did not describe the nature of the conversations, including whether they occurred in a formal or informal setting.

Clinton Tries To Win Support Of Utah Mormons

(HuffPo) -- Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is seizing upon a possible opening in the heavily Mormon state of Utah, reiterating the importance of religious tolerance to a population put off by Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“I’ve been fighting to defend religious freedom for years,” she wrote in an exclusive op-ed published Wednesday in the Deseret News. The publication is owned by the Mormon church, officially known as The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Clinton contrasted her efforts to protect religious minorities with her opponent’s questionable comments singling out different religious groups.


“Every day, Trump continues to prove he lacks the morals to be our commander-in-chief,” she added. “With a new, outrageous headline seeming to pop up every day, it’s easy to forget that Trump showed us his true colors early on, when he proposed banning all Muslims from our shores.”

Trump Calls Obama 'Founder of ISIS'

(CNN) -- Donald Trump on Wednesday repeatedly called President Barack Obama the "founder" of ISIS and labeled Hillary Clinton the "co-founder."

At a rally in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, Trump also said that ISIS "honors" Obama -- who the GOP nominee referred to as "Barack Hussein Obama."

After lamenting the "mistake" the US made by going to war in Iraq -- a conflict he repeatedly says that he opposed, despite evidence to the contrary -- Trump then criticized Obama's attempts to "clean up."

"Normally you want to clean up; he made a bigger mess out of it. He made such a mess. And then you had Hillary with Libya, so sad," Trump said.
  

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