STATE POLLING
New poll today from Florida, which remains, as expected, a see-saw state for polling. The latest one swings back towards Clinton, but it's still very much in the "up-for-grabs" category. Add in a highly visible Senate race, and we could be looking at record turnout at the Sunshine State polls this November.
Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 340 to 192 (with 6 tied). Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Utah: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.9%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.6%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.8%
Virginia: Clinton up by 1.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Lots of new polls today: Reuters/Ipsos (Clinton +4), Rasmussen (Clinton +4), McClatchy/Marist (Clinton +14), NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl (Clinton +9), LA Times/USC (Clinton +1), and UPI/CVoter (Clinton +5).
This batch of polls, in a nutshell, highlights the volatility and variables of this race. It's hard to believe the pollsters at McClatchy and the LA Times were talking to voters from the same country. A 13-point swing in polls released at the same time is all but unheard of -- and also why statistical analysis is so useful in gauging the actual tenor of the race.
Taken altogether, the current composite polling average has Clinton leading by 6.5%, trending upwards. This represents her largest lead of the race since I started tracking.
As for why she is doing so well -- and this lead is larger than any lead Obama had over Romney in the last campaign -- it's not that difficult to figure out. First, Clinton is coming off a strong convention, has a very large and well-organized campaign infrastructure, and is sticking with a strict campaign playbook. Second, Trump is coming off a much weaker convention marred by charges of plagiarism and a prime-time rejection by a major rival, has a much smaller, much less organized campaign infrastructure, and doesn't seem to have any playbook. And thirdly, Trump has spent the last seven days making unforced error after unforced error after unforced error.
The million dollar question now is: can Team Trump get their act together, or is the past week exactly the sort of thing we can expect to see on a daily basis for the rest of the election season?
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Obama Laughingly Dismisses Trump Claims Of A "Rigged" Election
(Politico) -- No, no, no, Donald Trump can’t be president, won’t be president, is more like a child whining in a sandbox than a prospective commander-in-chief, President Barack Obama thinks. So stop asking him about it.
Unless, of course, there’s a way to ask him about it that will let him showcase just how ridiculous he finds the thought of having Trump in the Oval Office, and let him laugh at the Republican nominee, and try to lead the country in laughing along with him.
Standing Thursday afternoon at the podium in the Pentagon for his pre-vacation press conference, a blue map of the world behind him, the core of the military around him, a long briefing on the counter-ISIL efforts just concluded, the stagecraft was all there. And Obama, two days after he declared Trump unfit for the office he now holds, took full advantage.
Ryan: Trump Endorsement Not A Blank Check
(The Hill) -- House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Thursday warned that his endorsement of Donald Trump shouldn't be seen as a blank check.
"If I hear things that I think are wrong, I'm not going to sit by and say nothing, because I think I have a duty as a Republican leader to defend Republican principles and our party's brand if I think they're being distorted," Ryan told Green Bay’s WTAQ radio.
Asked whether there are situations that could cause him to withdraw his support of Trump for president, Ryan responded, “of course there are.”
"I'm not going to get into the speculation or hypotheticals. None of these things are ever blank checks. That goes with any situation in any kind of race. But right now, he won the thing fair and square," Ryan said.
Trump Repeats Apparent False Claim of Iran Cash Transfer Video
(ABC News) -- Donald Trump again referred to a video he claims to have seen of the $400 million exchange between the U.S. and Iran — despite his campaign saying otherwise.
"You know, it was interesting because a tape was made," Trump said to supporters at a rally in Portland, Maine, today. "You know why the tape was given to us? Because they want to embarrass our country."
Trump initially discussed a video of the exchange in detail at a rally in Florida yesterday. However, Trump's campaign told ABC News today that Trump was referring to footage he saw on Fox News of the American prisoners released in Geneva.
Clinton Broadens Effort To Target Wary Republicans
(Washington Post) -- Donald Trump’s flailing campaign has prompted Democrats to launch a new, broad effort to offer Hillary Clinton as a safe harbor for Republicans who find they can no longer stomach the GOP presidential nominee.
Clinton’s campaign is quietly broadening its outreach to potential Republican converts, including donors, elected officials, and business and foreign policy leaders. The message is simple: Even if you have never before considered voting for a Democrat, and even if you don’t like Clinton, choosing her this year is a moral and patriotic imperative.
“Duty, honor, country,” is how one person familiar with recent campaign outreach put it. The recruitment is a continuation of the campaign’s efforts to sway influential Republicans and independents, which began in earnest as Trump appeared likely to secure the GOP nomination during the spring.
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