STATE POLLING
New polls today from New Hampshire (Clinton +4), Michigan (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +6), Florida (Clinton +2), Virginia (Clinton +6), California (Clinton +26), Missouri (Trump +10), South Carolina (Trump +4), two from Pennsylvania (Clinton +6 and Clinton +3), and two from North Carolina (Clinton +2 and Clinton +1).
With the exception of Missouri, today was all good news for Team Clinton. The polling reaction from Monday's night debate appears to support the view by the vast majority of media outlets and scientific polls that Clinton easily "won" the debate. Trump has been in damage control ever since, and appears to be damaging himself even more instead of putting a bad performance behind him.
Clinton is holding her "blue wall" of reliably Democratic states and being competitive in all of the traditional battleground states, plus ones (like Georgia and Arizona) that are new to battleground status this year. Much to the dismay of Republicans in general and Trump strategists in particular, who know they need to flip key states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia if they have any hope of taking the White House.
Another interesting bit of info is this little nugget unearthed by the New York Times: Google searches for voter registration have surged in Hispanic areas of the country. This demographic, which historically has had very low turnout in previous elections, is apparently getting much more active this time around. The main reason appears to be Trumps continued attacks on Venezuelan born former Miss Universe Alicia Machado for being "too fat" and other less savory accusations. In states like Arizona and Florida, with large Hispanic populations, this could be the swing votes needed to put Clinton over the top in those battleground states.
One fairly big change to the map today: North Carolina switches from "leaning Republican" to "leaning Democrat", which means Clinton now has a projected overall lead of 316 to 222. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 0.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 2.8%
Likely Democrat
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.2%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.4%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump steps up attacks on ex-Miss Universe
Donald Trump is doubling down on his attacks on a former Miss Universe. Trump unleashed a series of tweets early Friday saying that rival Hillary Clinton had shown bad judgment in using Alicia Machado "as a paragon of virtue."
Buzzfeed -- Trump Allies Focus On ‘90s Bill Clinton Sex Scandals
Allies of Donald Trump have a new line in the days since the debate: that Trump is a paragon of graciousness for not attacking Hillary Clinton on the debate stage for her husband’s affairs.
CNN -- Howard Stern: Trump backed Iraq War in 2002
Howard Stern confirmed Tuesday that Donald Trump expressed support for the Iraq War on his radio show in 2002 -- a claim Trump has denied despite a show recording of him offering at least measured backing.
Fox News -- Trump Foundation reportedly doesn't have proper paperwork to solicit money
Donald Trump’s foundation reportedly never obtained proper certification that the state of New York requires before charities can ask for money from the public. New York law states that any charity that asks for more than $25,000 per year needs to obtain a special registration before soliciting offers.
Politico -- Trump rejects accusations of breaking U.S. embargo in Cuba
Donald Trump on Thursday denied doing business in Cuba following a report accusing the Republican nominee of violating the U.S. embargo on the island. "I never did business in Cuba. There’s this guy who has very bad reputation as a reporter. You see what his record is, he wrote something about me in Cuba,” Trump said in an interview with NH1.
The Hill -- Trump 'very proud' of role in birther theory
Donald Trump on Thursday said he was "very proud" of his questioning of President Obama's birthplace and forcing the White House to release the president's birth certificate. "Well I'm the one that got him to put up his birth certificate," the GOP presidential nominee told NH1's Paul Steinhauser in a Thursday interview.
Friday, September 30, 2016
Thursday, September 29, 2016
39 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Michigan, Washington, Nerbraska
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Michigan (Clinton +5), Washington (Clinton +6), Nebraska (Trump +27), and Nebraska CD2 (Trump +9).
A relatively slow polling day today. Michigan remains competitive, Washington appears to be an outlier (that's about half the polling lead of the five previous polls in a solidly Democratic state), and we finally have our second Nebraska CD2 poll to confirm that at least one of the Cornhusker State's EV's could be up for grabs.
One change to the map, as Nebraska (CD2) moves from "lean" to "likely". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Michigan: Clinton up by 4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from PPP that has Clinton up +4 over Trump.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.4%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Early votes: High interest buoys Clinton in key states
More people are seeking or casting early ballots in the critical states of North Carolina and Florida than at this point in 2012, with Hillary Clinton the likely benefactor, as early voting shows signs of surging nationwide.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Claims Google Suppressed Bad News About Hillary Clinton
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Wednesday claimed Google’s search engine was biased in burying bad news about his rival Hillary Clinton. ”
CNN -- Trump angry at allies conceding he lost debate
Donald Trump is angry that his aides and advisers have conceded to reporters -- largely without attribution -- that the Republican nominee struggled in his first presidential debate.
Fox News -- Johnson has 'Aleppo moment' when asked about favorite foreign leader
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson said he was having another “Aleppo moment” after drawing a blank when he was asked to name his favorite foreign leader in an interview Wednesday.
Politico -- Trump calls out Clinton's 'unserious' campaign
Donald Trump’s campaign is focused on “big changes and bold solutions” while Hillary Clinton’s is concentrated on “small and petty distractions,” the Republican presidential nominee said Wednesday.
The Hill -- Trump singles out non-Christians at rally
Donald Trump on Wednesday singled out non-Christians during his rally in Iowa, after asking how many were in attendance. "There's a couple people. That's all right. I think we'll keep them, right? Should we keep them in the room, yes? I think so," Trump joked.
New polls today from Michigan (Clinton +5), Washington (Clinton +6), Nebraska (Trump +27), and Nebraska CD2 (Trump +9).
A relatively slow polling day today. Michigan remains competitive, Washington appears to be an outlier (that's about half the polling lead of the five previous polls in a solidly Democratic state), and we finally have our second Nebraska CD2 poll to confirm that at least one of the Cornhusker State's EV's could be up for grabs.
One change to the map, as Nebraska (CD2) moves from "lean" to "likely". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Michigan: Clinton up by 4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from PPP that has Clinton up +4 over Trump.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.4%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Early votes: High interest buoys Clinton in key states
More people are seeking or casting early ballots in the critical states of North Carolina and Florida than at this point in 2012, with Hillary Clinton the likely benefactor, as early voting shows signs of surging nationwide.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Claims Google Suppressed Bad News About Hillary Clinton
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Wednesday claimed Google’s search engine was biased in burying bad news about his rival Hillary Clinton. ”
CNN -- Trump angry at allies conceding he lost debate
Donald Trump is angry that his aides and advisers have conceded to reporters -- largely without attribution -- that the Republican nominee struggled in his first presidential debate.
Fox News -- Johnson has 'Aleppo moment' when asked about favorite foreign leader
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson said he was having another “Aleppo moment” after drawing a blank when he was asked to name his favorite foreign leader in an interview Wednesday.
Politico -- Trump calls out Clinton's 'unserious' campaign
Donald Trump’s campaign is focused on “big changes and bold solutions” while Hillary Clinton’s is concentrated on “small and petty distractions,” the Republican presidential nominee said Wednesday.
The Hill -- Trump singles out non-Christians at rally
Donald Trump on Wednesday singled out non-Christians during his rally in Iowa, after asking how many were in attendance. "There's a couple people. That's all right. I think we'll keep them, right? Should we keep them in the room, yes? I think so," Trump joked.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
40 Days Till Election Day: New polls from 49 states and the District of Columbia
STATE POLLING
There's a new old player on the scene today. And while "new old" may sound like an oxymoron, in this case it's the only way to describe UPI (United Press International) teaming up with CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) to conduct a 49-state polling project.
While both organizations have been around for some time (the India-based CVoter has covered over 30 international elections since 2000), this is the first time they have done a state-by-state poll. And after reviewing their results, the vast majority seem to be within the "margin of believability" (a test that online polling firm Ipsos failed, which is why we removed their polls from our database).
The polls, which included the District of Columbia but not Hawaii, were conducted between September 12-25. Here are the results from the battleground states:
Arizona (Trump +10), Georgia (Trump +8), Virginia (Trump +4), North Carolina (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Iowa (Trump +2), Ohio (Trump +1), Pennsylvania (Trump +1), Nevada (Clinton +1), New Hampshire (Clinton +1), Minnesota (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +4), Michigan (Clinton +4), Wisconsin (Clinton +4), and New Mexico (Clinton +5).
The only two states raised an eyebrow were Arizona and Virginia, where Trump's results were out of the norm for recent polling. Granted he had been trending up of late in Arizona, but in Virginia this appears to be an outlier. As it stands, though, every other state was within the norm of recent polling.
The changes to the map today have Texas moving to "safe" and Georgia moving from "lean" to "likely". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Michigan: Clinton up by 4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Politico/Morning Consult (Clinton +3) and UPI/CVoter (Clinton +1).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.1%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- As Clinton cheers, Donald Trump digs in after debate
A defensive Donald Trump gave Hillary Clinton plenty of fresh material for the next phase of her presidential campaign on Tuesday, choosing to publicly reopen and relitigate some her most damaging attacks.
Buzzfeed -- Trump’s Supporters Have Mixed Feelings About His Debate Performance
A day after his contentious first presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump held a rally Tuesday evening in a hanger at Melbourne International Airport, filling the venue to capacity with an estimated 15,000 people.
CNN -- Miss Universe strikes back against Trump
Former "Miss Universe" Alicia Machado struck back Tuesday against insults hurled at her by Donald Trump, saying that he was "aggressive" and "really rude." Machado, who represented Venezuela in Trump's 1996 "Miss Universe" competition said that Trump called her "Miss Housekeeping" and "Miss Piggy" when she gained weight after winning the beauty pageant.
Fox News -- Clinton, Trump trade taunts after testy debate
The day after Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traded verbal jousts in the most-watched presidential debate in history, the Republican and Democratic candidates slammed each other while thousands of miles apart Tuesday. At an evening rally in Melbourne, Fla., Trump said the former secretary of state was "stuck in the past."
Politico -- Gary Johnson hits Trump and Clinton in NYT op-ed
Seeking to play on voters’ dissatisfaction with both major-party candidates, Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson wrote an op-ed published in Wednesday’s New York Times that “the America I know wasn’t on the television screen on Monday night.”
The Hill -- GOP lawmakers give Trump bad reviews on debate performance
GOP nominee Donald Trump was ill-prepared for Monday night’s debate. He missed opportunities to knock Democrat Hillary Clinton off her stride, especially concerning her private email server. And he came across as too defensive at times.
There's a new old player on the scene today. And while "new old" may sound like an oxymoron, in this case it's the only way to describe UPI (United Press International) teaming up with CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) to conduct a 49-state polling project.
While both organizations have been around for some time (the India-based CVoter has covered over 30 international elections since 2000), this is the first time they have done a state-by-state poll. And after reviewing their results, the vast majority seem to be within the "margin of believability" (a test that online polling firm Ipsos failed, which is why we removed their polls from our database).
The polls, which included the District of Columbia but not Hawaii, were conducted between September 12-25. Here are the results from the battleground states:
Arizona (Trump +10), Georgia (Trump +8), Virginia (Trump +4), North Carolina (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Iowa (Trump +2), Ohio (Trump +1), Pennsylvania (Trump +1), Nevada (Clinton +1), New Hampshire (Clinton +1), Minnesota (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +4), Michigan (Clinton +4), Wisconsin (Clinton +4), and New Mexico (Clinton +5).
The only two states raised an eyebrow were Arizona and Virginia, where Trump's results were out of the norm for recent polling. Granted he had been trending up of late in Arizona, but in Virginia this appears to be an outlier. As it stands, though, every other state was within the norm of recent polling.
The changes to the map today have Texas moving to "safe" and Georgia moving from "lean" to "likely". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Michigan: Clinton up by 4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Politico/Morning Consult (Clinton +3) and UPI/CVoter (Clinton +1).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.1%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- As Clinton cheers, Donald Trump digs in after debate
A defensive Donald Trump gave Hillary Clinton plenty of fresh material for the next phase of her presidential campaign on Tuesday, choosing to publicly reopen and relitigate some her most damaging attacks.
Buzzfeed -- Trump’s Supporters Have Mixed Feelings About His Debate Performance
A day after his contentious first presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump held a rally Tuesday evening in a hanger at Melbourne International Airport, filling the venue to capacity with an estimated 15,000 people.
CNN -- Miss Universe strikes back against Trump
Former "Miss Universe" Alicia Machado struck back Tuesday against insults hurled at her by Donald Trump, saying that he was "aggressive" and "really rude." Machado, who represented Venezuela in Trump's 1996 "Miss Universe" competition said that Trump called her "Miss Housekeeping" and "Miss Piggy" when she gained weight after winning the beauty pageant.
Fox News -- Clinton, Trump trade taunts after testy debate
The day after Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traded verbal jousts in the most-watched presidential debate in history, the Republican and Democratic candidates slammed each other while thousands of miles apart Tuesday. At an evening rally in Melbourne, Fla., Trump said the former secretary of state was "stuck in the past."
Politico -- Gary Johnson hits Trump and Clinton in NYT op-ed
Seeking to play on voters’ dissatisfaction with both major-party candidates, Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson wrote an op-ed published in Wednesday’s New York Times that “the America I know wasn’t on the television screen on Monday night.”
The Hill -- GOP lawmakers give Trump bad reviews on debate performance
GOP nominee Donald Trump was ill-prepared for Monday night’s debate. He missed opportunities to knock Democrat Hillary Clinton off her stride, especially concerning her private email server. And he came across as too defensive at times.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
41 Days Till Election Day: 14 new state polls
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +10), Iowa (tied), Colorado (Clinton +2), Florida (Clinton +3), Virginia (Clinton +6), Minnesota (Clinton +7), Massachusetts (Clinton +13), New York (Clinton +21), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +1), and four from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3, Clinton +3, Clinton +2, and Clinton +1)
Coming on the heels of a very good night in the first debate, today's batch of polls (all taken before the debate, it should be noted) are more welcome news for the Clinton campaign, with one exception. Aside from Pennsylvania, she is either holding her own or improving her numbers in the battleground states.
But, about Pennsylvania... Four polls in one day (a first this season) all show the same thing: the state she had all but locked up a month ago is now a virtual toss-up. And the reason is that Trump's greatest strength (and about the only time he bested Clinton last night) is his economic message aimed at disaffected blue collar workers, which is tailored for states like Pennsylvania.
Of course, what everyone in the prediction business is waiting for are the polls being conducted today and tomorrow that will show whether the debate had any effect on the still undecided voters in the battleground states. It's going to be an interesting week, no doubt.
One change to the map today: Pennsylvania moves from "likely" to "leaning". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Leaning Republican
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 0.9%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6.1%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +1), Monmouth (Clinton +4), and NBC News/SM (Clinton +5). Again, it should to be noted that these are all pre-debate polls.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4.1%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
And, once again, a single story dominates the headlines this morning...
Associated Press -- Cheers and jeers: Americans tune into Trump-Clinton debate
From senior centers to college campuses and bars featuring campaign-themed cocktails, Americans laughed, cheered and jeered through the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Buzzfeed -- Trump And Clinton Lay Out Competing Visions Of Race In America
“We move into our next segment talking about America’s direction,” Lester Holt told viewers during the first presidential debate. “And let’s start by talking about race.” The momentary pause that followed the transition sent people on social media into a defensive crouch.
CNN -- Clinton goes after Trump at first debate
The debate of the century delivered. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump waged a fiery battle Monday night when they appeared on stage together -- a clash of two famous personalities locked in a dead heat for the presidency.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton clash at fiery first debate
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, in a fiery opening debate where seemingly nothing was off limits, clashed sharply Monday night as the Republican nominee worked to cast his rival as a career politician unable to bring change – and the Democratic nominee fought to tag Trump as an empty suit “hiding” something from the American public.
Politico -- 5 takeaways from the first presidential debate
There were a couple of not-so-very-subtle signals here inside of Hofstra University that Donald Trump lost Monday night’s highly-anticipated debate against Hillary Clinton, and badly.
The Hill -- Debate of century lives up to its billing
The first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lived up to its billing on Monday night as sparks flew on subjects ranging from trade deals to the fight against ISIS. Stylistically, it was a clash between the more incisive and prepared Clinton and Trump, who leaned heavily on instinct and combativeness.
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +10), Iowa (tied), Colorado (Clinton +2), Florida (Clinton +3), Virginia (Clinton +6), Minnesota (Clinton +7), Massachusetts (Clinton +13), New York (Clinton +21), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +1), and four from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3, Clinton +3, Clinton +2, and Clinton +1)
Coming on the heels of a very good night in the first debate, today's batch of polls (all taken before the debate, it should be noted) are more welcome news for the Clinton campaign, with one exception. Aside from Pennsylvania, she is either holding her own or improving her numbers in the battleground states.
But, about Pennsylvania... Four polls in one day (a first this season) all show the same thing: the state she had all but locked up a month ago is now a virtual toss-up. And the reason is that Trump's greatest strength (and about the only time he bested Clinton last night) is his economic message aimed at disaffected blue collar workers, which is tailored for states like Pennsylvania.
Of course, what everyone in the prediction business is waiting for are the polls being conducted today and tomorrow that will show whether the debate had any effect on the still undecided voters in the battleground states. It's going to be an interesting week, no doubt.
One change to the map today: Pennsylvania moves from "likely" to "leaning". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Leaning Republican
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 0.9%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6.1%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +1), Monmouth (Clinton +4), and NBC News/SM (Clinton +5). Again, it should to be noted that these are all pre-debate polls.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4.1%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
And, once again, a single story dominates the headlines this morning...
Associated Press -- Cheers and jeers: Americans tune into Trump-Clinton debate
From senior centers to college campuses and bars featuring campaign-themed cocktails, Americans laughed, cheered and jeered through the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Buzzfeed -- Trump And Clinton Lay Out Competing Visions Of Race In America
“We move into our next segment talking about America’s direction,” Lester Holt told viewers during the first presidential debate. “And let’s start by talking about race.” The momentary pause that followed the transition sent people on social media into a defensive crouch.
CNN -- Clinton goes after Trump at first debate
The debate of the century delivered. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump waged a fiery battle Monday night when they appeared on stage together -- a clash of two famous personalities locked in a dead heat for the presidency.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton clash at fiery first debate
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, in a fiery opening debate where seemingly nothing was off limits, clashed sharply Monday night as the Republican nominee worked to cast his rival as a career politician unable to bring change – and the Democratic nominee fought to tag Trump as an empty suit “hiding” something from the American public.
Politico -- 5 takeaways from the first presidential debate
There were a couple of not-so-very-subtle signals here inside of Hofstra University that Donald Trump lost Monday night’s highly-anticipated debate against Hillary Clinton, and badly.
The Hill -- Debate of century lives up to its billing
The first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lived up to its billing on Monday night as sparks flew on subjects ranging from trade deals to the fight against ISIS. Stylistically, it was a clash between the more incisive and prepared Clinton and Trump, who leaned heavily on instinct and combativeness.
Monday, September 26, 2016
42 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Maine, Colorado
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +8), Missouri (Trump +9), Ohio (Trump +1), Maine (CD1 Clinton +22, CD2 Trump +14), and two from Colorado (Clinton +1 and Trump +4),
Good news today for Clinton in Virginia, where she's increasing her lead. As for the rest of today's polls, not so much...as Trump is taking Missouri out of play and putting Colorado very much back in play. The Clinton campaign decision to pull their advertising from Colorado a month ago, feeling like they had the state in the bag, appears to have been a rather optimistic decision.
Meanwhile, Ohio remains a veritable toss-up between the two, and will all but assuredly stay that way through Election Day, while Maine is looking very much like a split decision, with Trump taking one vote away. Though it appears possible that Clinton could snipe one of Nebraska's EV's, which would then cancel out the impact of the only two states to allocate their EV's by congressional district.
Map Update: With the race getting into its final stretch, we're expanding our map parameters. We will now be using three categories instead of just two: Leaning (up to 4%), Likely (4% to 7%), and Safe (7% and up).
Currently, Clinton has a projected overall Electoral College lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Leaning Republican
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Bloomberg (Trump +2) and Economist/YouGov (Clinton +3).
Bloomberg has Trump leading Clinton 43% to 41%, with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 4%, while Economist has Clinton leading Trump 44% to 41%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.6%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Apparently there's something over than Monday Night Football to watch on TV tonight...
Associated Press -- Debate Night: Clinton, Trump set for high-stakes showdown
After months of tangling from afar, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will confront each other face-to-face for the first time in Monday night's presidential debate, laying out for voters their vastly different visions for America's future.
Buzzfeed -- Lester Holt Is At The Center Of The Great Fact-Checking Debate Of 2016
When moderator Lester Holt steps onto the Hofstra University debate stage on Monday night, he’ll find himself between two campaigns with opposing visions of his role — and at the center of a months-long media debate about fairness and truth in the 2016 election.
CNN -- 5 things to watch at Monday night's Clinton-Trump debate
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump face off for the first time on the debate stage Monday night, the biggest moment of the already extraordinary 2016 presidential race.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton meet with Netanyahu as presidential debate looms
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday as the presidential candidates brush up on foreign policy hours before their debate.
Politico -- Clinton vs. Trump: The only 30 minutes that matter
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will debate for 90 minutes on Monday. But the winner likely will be determined in the first half-hour. That’s when Al Gore first sighed, Mitt Romney knocked President Obama on his heels, and Marco Rubio, earlier this year, glitched in repeating the same talking point — over and over and over.
The Hill -- Frenzy builds for epic debate
Buckle up: Debate day is finally here. The anticipation for Monday night’s face-off between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton has reached a fever pitch, with many expecting a defining moment in one of the wildest elections of modern times.
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +8), Missouri (Trump +9), Ohio (Trump +1), Maine (CD1 Clinton +22, CD2 Trump +14), and two from Colorado (Clinton +1 and Trump +4),
Good news today for Clinton in Virginia, where she's increasing her lead. As for the rest of today's polls, not so much...as Trump is taking Missouri out of play and putting Colorado very much back in play. The Clinton campaign decision to pull their advertising from Colorado a month ago, feeling like they had the state in the bag, appears to have been a rather optimistic decision.
Meanwhile, Ohio remains a veritable toss-up between the two, and will all but assuredly stay that way through Election Day, while Maine is looking very much like a split decision, with Trump taking one vote away. Though it appears possible that Clinton could snipe one of Nebraska's EV's, which would then cancel out the impact of the only two states to allocate their EV's by congressional district.
Map Update: With the race getting into its final stretch, we're expanding our map parameters. We will now be using three categories instead of just two: Leaning (up to 4%), Likely (4% to 7%), and Safe (7% and up).
Currently, Clinton has a projected overall Electoral College lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Leaning Republican
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Bloomberg (Trump +2) and Economist/YouGov (Clinton +3).
Bloomberg has Trump leading Clinton 43% to 41%, with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 4%, while Economist has Clinton leading Trump 44% to 41%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.6%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Apparently there's something over than Monday Night Football to watch on TV tonight...
Associated Press -- Debate Night: Clinton, Trump set for high-stakes showdown
After months of tangling from afar, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will confront each other face-to-face for the first time in Monday night's presidential debate, laying out for voters their vastly different visions for America's future.
Buzzfeed -- Lester Holt Is At The Center Of The Great Fact-Checking Debate Of 2016
When moderator Lester Holt steps onto the Hofstra University debate stage on Monday night, he’ll find himself between two campaigns with opposing visions of his role — and at the center of a months-long media debate about fairness and truth in the 2016 election.
CNN -- 5 things to watch at Monday night's Clinton-Trump debate
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump face off for the first time on the debate stage Monday night, the biggest moment of the already extraordinary 2016 presidential race.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton meet with Netanyahu as presidential debate looms
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday as the presidential candidates brush up on foreign policy hours before their debate.
Politico -- Clinton vs. Trump: The only 30 minutes that matter
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will debate for 90 minutes on Monday. But the winner likely will be determined in the first half-hour. That’s when Al Gore first sighed, Mitt Romney knocked President Obama on his heels, and Marco Rubio, earlier this year, glitched in repeating the same talking point — over and over and over.
The Hill -- Frenzy builds for epic debate
Buckle up: Debate day is finally here. The anticipation for Monday night’s face-off between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton has reached a fever pitch, with many expecting a defining moment in one of the wildest elections of modern times.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
43 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Pennsylvania, Georgia
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +2) and Georgia (Trump +4).
Another bit of bad news for the Clinton campaign, which has been leading well in Pennsylvania since the conventions. She still has a 5.1% cumulative lead, but seeing a +2 come out the day before the first debate is a bit of concern for the Democrats.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.5%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from ABC News/Washington Post that has Clinton up +2, leading Trump 46% to 44%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 1%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4.1%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton, Trump to meet separately with Israel PM Netanyahu
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are expected to meet separately with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday ahead of their first presidential debate on Monday night.
Buzzfeed -- Gennifer Flowers Agrees To Join Trump At Presidential Debate
Gennifer Flowers, the former model who had an extramarital affair with Bill Clinton in the 1980s, says she’ll accept an invitation from Donald Trump to sit in the front row of Monday’s presidential debate, according to an assistant.
CNN -- Clinton, Trump scrap plans to visit Charlotte after mayor's plea
The mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, publicly asked Friday that the two leading presidential candidates delay plans to visit her city, which has been rocked this week by unrest following a police shooting of a black man.
Fox News -- Obama reportedly used pseudonym to email with Clinton on her private server
President Obama used a pseudonym when sending or receiving emails through the private server system Hillary Clinton used as secretary of state, according to nearly 200 pages of documents released Friday by the FBI.
Politico -- New York Times endorses Hillary Clinton
The editorial board of the New York Times endorsed Hillary Clinton on Saturday, urging the newspaper’s readers to vote for the former secretary of state as the person best suited to confront “bigoted, tribalist movements and their leaders on the march” across the globe.
The Hill -- Priebus predicts Trump will be 'consistent, measured' at debate
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus predicted on Sunday that Donald Trump will be “consistent” and “measured” at the first presidential debate Monday night. During a radio interview with John Catsimatidis that aired Sunday, Priebus said Trump’s chances of winning the election have improved as he becomes a more disciplined candidate.
New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +2) and Georgia (Trump +4).
Another bit of bad news for the Clinton campaign, which has been leading well in Pennsylvania since the conventions. She still has a 5.1% cumulative lead, but seeing a +2 come out the day before the first debate is a bit of concern for the Democrats.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.5%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from ABC News/Washington Post that has Clinton up +2, leading Trump 46% to 44%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 1%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4.1%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton, Trump to meet separately with Israel PM Netanyahu
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are expected to meet separately with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday ahead of their first presidential debate on Monday night.
Buzzfeed -- Gennifer Flowers Agrees To Join Trump At Presidential Debate
Gennifer Flowers, the former model who had an extramarital affair with Bill Clinton in the 1980s, says she’ll accept an invitation from Donald Trump to sit in the front row of Monday’s presidential debate, according to an assistant.
CNN -- Clinton, Trump scrap plans to visit Charlotte after mayor's plea
The mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, publicly asked Friday that the two leading presidential candidates delay plans to visit her city, which has been rocked this week by unrest following a police shooting of a black man.
Fox News -- Obama reportedly used pseudonym to email with Clinton on her private server
President Obama used a pseudonym when sending or receiving emails through the private server system Hillary Clinton used as secretary of state, according to nearly 200 pages of documents released Friday by the FBI.
Politico -- New York Times endorses Hillary Clinton
The editorial board of the New York Times endorsed Hillary Clinton on Saturday, urging the newspaper’s readers to vote for the former secretary of state as the person best suited to confront “bigoted, tribalist movements and their leaders on the march” across the globe.
The Hill -- Priebus predicts Trump will be 'consistent, measured' at debate
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus predicted on Sunday that Donald Trump will be “consistent” and “measured” at the first presidential debate Monday night. During a radio interview with John Catsimatidis that aired Sunday, Priebus said Trump’s chances of winning the election have improved as he becomes a more disciplined candidate.
Saturday, September 24, 2016
44 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Georgia, Arkansas
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Georgia (Trump +6) and Arkansas (Trump +21).
No real surprises here. Trump still isn't completely out of the woods in Georgia, but the recent polling shows the Peach State reasserting itself as part of the Southern Red Wall. And the only surprise out of Arkansas is one would thought Clinton would be doing just a bit better in a state where she was once first lady.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.5%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from McClatchy/Marist (Clinton +6) and Gravis (Clinton +4).
McClatchy has Clinton leading Trump 45% to 39%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%, while Gravis has Clinton leading Trump 44% to 40%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.9%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Why yes, there is a trend today...
Associated Press -- Cruz throws his support to Trump's campaign at last
Donald Trump says he's "greatly honored" to receive the endorsement of defeated rival Ted Cruz, not that Cruz is using that word when acknowledging that he will vote for the Republican presidential nominee.
Buzzfeed -- Ted Cruz Endorses Donald Trump
Two months after withholding his endorsement from Donald Trump at the Republican convention, Ted Cruz announced on his Facebook page on Friday that he is endorsing Trump.
CNN -- Ted Cruz endorses Donald Trump
Ted Cruz endorsed Donald Trump for the presidency Friday afternoon, a stunning turn of events after a contentious primary filled with nasty personal attacks and a dramatic snub at the Republican National Convention.
Fox News -- Cruz says he will vote for Trump
Sen. Ted Cruz announced Friday that he will vote for ex-primary foe Donald Trump in November and urged others to do the same, reversing course to back the Republican nominee two months after he stunned the party brass by withholding his endorsement at the Cleveland convention.
Politico -- Cruz: I'm voting for Trump
Ted Cruz on Friday said he would vote for Donald Trump for president and that he would encourage others to do the same, reversing months of opposition to his bitter primary rival.
The Hill -- Why Cruz flipped on Trump
Sen. Ted Cruz surprised and dismayed many conservatives Friday when he announced his support for Donald Trump. It was a move that, only a short while before, one prominent Cruz ally had said would make no sense.
New polls today from Georgia (Trump +6) and Arkansas (Trump +21).
No real surprises here. Trump still isn't completely out of the woods in Georgia, but the recent polling shows the Peach State reasserting itself as part of the Southern Red Wall. And the only surprise out of Arkansas is one would thought Clinton would be doing just a bit better in a state where she was once first lady.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.5%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from McClatchy/Marist (Clinton +6) and Gravis (Clinton +4).
McClatchy has Clinton leading Trump 45% to 39%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%, while Gravis has Clinton leading Trump 44% to 40%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.9%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Why yes, there is a trend today...
Associated Press -- Cruz throws his support to Trump's campaign at last
Donald Trump says he's "greatly honored" to receive the endorsement of defeated rival Ted Cruz, not that Cruz is using that word when acknowledging that he will vote for the Republican presidential nominee.
Buzzfeed -- Ted Cruz Endorses Donald Trump
Two months after withholding his endorsement from Donald Trump at the Republican convention, Ted Cruz announced on his Facebook page on Friday that he is endorsing Trump.
CNN -- Ted Cruz endorses Donald Trump
Ted Cruz endorsed Donald Trump for the presidency Friday afternoon, a stunning turn of events after a contentious primary filled with nasty personal attacks and a dramatic snub at the Republican National Convention.
Fox News -- Cruz says he will vote for Trump
Sen. Ted Cruz announced Friday that he will vote for ex-primary foe Donald Trump in November and urged others to do the same, reversing course to back the Republican nominee two months after he stunned the party brass by withholding his endorsement at the Cleveland convention.
Politico -- Cruz: I'm voting for Trump
Ted Cruz on Friday said he would vote for Donald Trump for president and that he would encourage others to do the same, reversing months of opposition to his bitter primary rival.
The Hill -- Why Cruz flipped on Trump
Sen. Ted Cruz surprised and dismayed many conservatives Friday when he announced his support for Donald Trump. It was a move that, only a short while before, one prominent Cruz ally had said would make no sense.
Friday, September 23, 2016
45 Days Till Election Day: 17 new state polls
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Iowa (Trump +7), Georgia (Trump +7), Florida (Trump +1), Maryland (Clinton +33), California (Clinton +16), Ohio (Trump +3), Nevada (Trump +1), Washington (Clinton +12), Arizona (Trump +5), Wyoming (Trump +35), two each from Colorado (Clinton +2 and Clinton +7), Virginia (Clinton +6 and Clinton +7), and three North Carolina, (Trump +4, tied, Trump +2).
We're obviously at that point in the campaign where not only do we get a lot of polls most every day, we also often get multiple polls from the same states. Including a first today: three polls from the same state. Which, considering it's North Carolina, makes sense with everyone trying to get a handle on what is happening there.
The takeaways from this batch of polls has good news for both campaigns. Trump is definitely riding the momentum wave at the moment, making gains in Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina, and being highly competitive in Florida and Nevada. Clinton is picking up steam in Virginia, keeping her West Coast blue wall safely intact, and staying ahead in Colorado.
There were also polls from the two most partisan states in the union: Wyoming (GOP +29) and Maryland (DEM +26). Protip to polling firms: save your money and don't worry about those two. The chances that Wyoming goes blue or Maryland goes red is about the same chance as you have of winning the megapower lottery...if you never buy a ticket.
Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.5%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from the Associated Press that has Clinton ahead by six, leading Trump 45% to 39%, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.3%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Advisers warn Trump not to get riled by Clinton in debate
Donald Trump's advisers are urging him to keep his cool during next week's presidential debate and resist attempts by Hillary Clinton to provoke him with questions about his business record, wealth or controversial comments about minorities.
Buzzfeed -- Trump, Supporters Express Support For Stop-And-Frisk
Donald Trump didn’t mention his support for a national stop-and-frisk policy during a campaign rally Thursday, sticking instead to his support of police and the need for law and order as part of his pitch to black and Latino voters.
CNN -- Newest absentee, registration numbers promising for Clinton
Early numbers from Iowa and North Carolina, where voters are already casting absentee ballots, look promising for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. And Democrats have also improved their position on the voter rolls in Colorado and Florida, outpacing Republicans in the past month, according to a CNN analysis of newly released statistics.
Fox News -- Federal immigration bosses in OT push to swear in new citizens
An internal Obama administration email shows immigration officials may be literally working overtime to swear in as many new “citizen voters” as possible before the Nov. 8 presidential election, a powerful lawmaker charged Thursday.
Politico -- Judge rejects New York Times request to unseal Trump divorce file
A New York judge has rejected a media request to make public the contents of a 25-year-old court file on Donald Trump's divorce from wife Ivana, saying the courts have no business deciding what information could be useful to voters.
The Hill -- Trump questions how much Clinton has helped women, children
Donald Trump questioned Hillary Clinton's record on women's and children's issues Thursday, saying she hasn't done enough with the time she has been in public office. "My opponent Hillary likes to say that for decades she's been fighting for women, that she's been fighting for children," Trump said at a rally in Chester Township, Pa.
New polls today from Iowa (Trump +7), Georgia (Trump +7), Florida (Trump +1), Maryland (Clinton +33), California (Clinton +16), Ohio (Trump +3), Nevada (Trump +1), Washington (Clinton +12), Arizona (Trump +5), Wyoming (Trump +35), two each from Colorado (Clinton +2 and Clinton +7), Virginia (Clinton +6 and Clinton +7), and three North Carolina, (Trump +4, tied, Trump +2).
We're obviously at that point in the campaign where not only do we get a lot of polls most every day, we also often get multiple polls from the same states. Including a first today: three polls from the same state. Which, considering it's North Carolina, makes sense with everyone trying to get a handle on what is happening there.
The takeaways from this batch of polls has good news for both campaigns. Trump is definitely riding the momentum wave at the moment, making gains in Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina, and being highly competitive in Florida and Nevada. Clinton is picking up steam in Virginia, keeping her West Coast blue wall safely intact, and staying ahead in Colorado.
There were also polls from the two most partisan states in the union: Wyoming (GOP +29) and Maryland (DEM +26). Protip to polling firms: save your money and don't worry about those two. The chances that Wyoming goes blue or Maryland goes red is about the same chance as you have of winning the megapower lottery...if you never buy a ticket.
Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.5%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 3.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from the Associated Press that has Clinton ahead by six, leading Trump 45% to 39%, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.3%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Advisers warn Trump not to get riled by Clinton in debate
Donald Trump's advisers are urging him to keep his cool during next week's presidential debate and resist attempts by Hillary Clinton to provoke him with questions about his business record, wealth or controversial comments about minorities.
Buzzfeed -- Trump, Supporters Express Support For Stop-And-Frisk
Donald Trump didn’t mention his support for a national stop-and-frisk policy during a campaign rally Thursday, sticking instead to his support of police and the need for law and order as part of his pitch to black and Latino voters.
CNN -- Newest absentee, registration numbers promising for Clinton
Early numbers from Iowa and North Carolina, where voters are already casting absentee ballots, look promising for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. And Democrats have also improved their position on the voter rolls in Colorado and Florida, outpacing Republicans in the past month, according to a CNN analysis of newly released statistics.
Fox News -- Federal immigration bosses in OT push to swear in new citizens
An internal Obama administration email shows immigration officials may be literally working overtime to swear in as many new “citizen voters” as possible before the Nov. 8 presidential election, a powerful lawmaker charged Thursday.
Politico -- Judge rejects New York Times request to unseal Trump divorce file
A New York judge has rejected a media request to make public the contents of a 25-year-old court file on Donald Trump's divorce from wife Ivana, saying the courts have no business deciding what information could be useful to voters.
The Hill -- Trump questions how much Clinton has helped women, children
Donald Trump questioned Hillary Clinton's record on women's and children's issues Thursday, saying she hasn't done enough with the time she has been in public office. "My opponent Hillary likes to say that for decades she's been fighting for women, that she's been fighting for children," Trump said at a rally in Chester Township, Pa.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
46 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Virginia, Illinois, Louisiana, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +7), Illinois (Clinton +6), Louisiana (Trump +16), Nevada (Trump +3), Ohio (Trump +5), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), two from Wisconsin (Clinton +7 and Clinton +3), and two from North Carolina (Trump +5 and Trump +2)
Another big batch of polls, another day of mixed news for the campaigns. It's like déjà vu all over again, to quote the late, great Yogi Berra.
And yet, with all the polling and the differences in numbers and so forth, the only real change to the map today is North Carolina flipping from leaning Democrat to leaning Republican.
Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.7%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.5%
North Carolina: Trumo up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Economist/YouGov. The NBC/WSJ poll has Clinton ahead by six, 43% to 37% over Trump, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 2%. The Economist poll has Clinton up by just two, 40% to 38% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%/
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2.5%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump calls for racial unity, embraces 'stop and frisk
Lamenting a "lack of spirit" between whites and blacks, Donald Trump encouraged racial unity on Thursday even as he called for one of the nation's largest cities to adopt "stop and frisk" policing tactics that have been widely condemned as racial profiling by minority leaders.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Appears With Pastor Who Questioned If Obama Was Muslim
Less than a week after finally admitting President Obama was born in the United States, Donald Trump on Wednesday appeared with an Ohio-based pastor and adviser to his campaign who this year questioned Obama’s faith and declined to answer in an interview if the president was American-born.
CNN -- Trump on birtherism: 'We wanted to get on with the campaign'
Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that his statement late last week that President Barack Obama was born in the US was motivated by politics, not by a genuine change of heart.
Fox News -- Clinton's campaign manager takes heat over awkward interview
Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook had an interview to forget Wednesday morning, when he struggled to answer questions about his candidate's policy on Syria during an interview for MSNBC's Morning Joe.
Politico -- Trump's campaign paid his businesses $8.2 million
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has paid his family's businesses more than $8.2 million, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings, which reveals an integrated business and political operation without precedent in national politics.
The Hill -- Trump: 'We'll see what's going on' with Clinton at debate
Donald Trump on Thursday said he is hoping the first presidential debate will be cordial. “We’ll stay cool,” he said on Fox News’s Fox & Friends. “We’ll see what’s going on with her," he added. "Because there’s something going on that a lot of people are trying to figure out.”
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +7), Illinois (Clinton +6), Louisiana (Trump +16), Nevada (Trump +3), Ohio (Trump +5), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), two from Wisconsin (Clinton +7 and Clinton +3), and two from North Carolina (Trump +5 and Trump +2)
Another big batch of polls, another day of mixed news for the campaigns. It's like déjà vu all over again, to quote the late, great Yogi Berra.
And yet, with all the polling and the differences in numbers and so forth, the only real change to the map today is North Carolina flipping from leaning Democrat to leaning Republican.
Currently, Clinton has a 195 to 126 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.7%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.5%
North Carolina: Trumo up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Economist/YouGov. The NBC/WSJ poll has Clinton ahead by six, 43% to 37% over Trump, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 2%. The Economist poll has Clinton up by just two, 40% to 38% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%/
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2.5%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump calls for racial unity, embraces 'stop and frisk
Lamenting a "lack of spirit" between whites and blacks, Donald Trump encouraged racial unity on Thursday even as he called for one of the nation's largest cities to adopt "stop and frisk" policing tactics that have been widely condemned as racial profiling by minority leaders.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Appears With Pastor Who Questioned If Obama Was Muslim
Less than a week after finally admitting President Obama was born in the United States, Donald Trump on Wednesday appeared with an Ohio-based pastor and adviser to his campaign who this year questioned Obama’s faith and declined to answer in an interview if the president was American-born.
CNN -- Trump on birtherism: 'We wanted to get on with the campaign'
Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that his statement late last week that President Barack Obama was born in the US was motivated by politics, not by a genuine change of heart.
Fox News -- Clinton's campaign manager takes heat over awkward interview
Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook had an interview to forget Wednesday morning, when he struggled to answer questions about his candidate's policy on Syria during an interview for MSNBC's Morning Joe.
Politico -- Trump's campaign paid his businesses $8.2 million
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has paid his family's businesses more than $8.2 million, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings, which reveals an integrated business and political operation without precedent in national politics.
The Hill -- Trump: 'We'll see what's going on' with Clinton at debate
Donald Trump on Thursday said he is hoping the first presidential debate will be cordial. “We’ll stay cool,” he said on Fox News’s Fox & Friends. “We’ll see what’s going on with her," he added. "Because there’s something going on that a lot of people are trying to figure out.”
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
47 Days Till Election Day: New polls from New York, California, Maine, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida
STATISTICAL NOTE
One of the sites we've long been a fan of, electoral-vote.com, published an interesting statistical note today: "We Are Removing the Ipsos Polls from the Database". They, like us, had been using Ipsos polling data even when some of the results appeared to be outliers.
What E-V did was run an analysis with and without the Ipsos polling data to see how much it changed their averages. Turned out it was a major difference, which should not be the case.
So...we tried the same analysis with our data and found the same result, though not as marked since we use a different cumulative weighted algorithm than they do. Still, as a result, we have likewise decided to remove Ipsos polling data, which is now reflected with today's update.
STATE POLLING
New polls today from New York (Clinton +21), California (Clinton +17), Maine CD1 (Clinton +11) and CD2 (Trump +11), North Carolina (Trump +1), Nevada (Trump +3), and Florida (Clinton +5).
Combining today's polls along with the removal of the Ipsos polling data, we have a rather interesting shakeup of the prediction map. The biggest changes are Florida and Ohio flipping opposite directions, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan dropping back into leaning status, and the biggest surprise of all, Texas moving into lean status. The latter has Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in a bit of a tizzy, at least according to an email he really wished hadn't gotten out to the public.
Most interestingly, at least to me, is that Clinton's "safe" lead dropped to a low of 195 to 126, but her projected overall lead over Trump is now higher than yesterday: 316 to 222.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.7%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.5%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 0.3%
Florida: Clinton up by 1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.7%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from NBC News, which has Clinton up five points over Trump, 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Donald Trump Jr. becomes campaign flashpoint
Donald Trump is trying to run a more disciplined campaign, going easy (for him) on slip-ups and inflammatory tweets lately. His eldest son is another story. In recent tweets, Donald Trump Jr. likened Syrian refugees to Skittles candy, spread an incendiary story suggesting Muslim men are preying on Western women and used a cartoon character appropriated by white supremacists.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Cites Bombings In Renewing Calls For Tougher Immigration Controls
Donald Trump on Monday renewed his calls for curbing immigration from countries where “safe and adequate screening cannot occur,” citing recent bombings in New York and New Jersey as proof that the government wasn’t doing enough to keep Americans safe.
CNN -- Trump: Black communities in worst shape 'ever, ever, ever'
Donald Trump thinks black communities in the US are "absolutely in the worst shape that they've ever been in before." Trump made the comment as he rallied supporters here on Tuesday and made his usual "what do you have to lose" pitch to African-American voters -- few of whom attended his rally in this rural part of this battleground state.
Fox News -- Clinton says Trump giving 'aid and comfort' to ISIS
It was inevitable, once that bomb exploded in lower Manhattan, that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would be engaged in a war of words over terrorism. The media’s conventional wisdom is that terror attacks help Trump, given his tough rhetoric about immigration and bombing the blank out of ISIS.
Politico -- Trump forces lagged Clinton in August money race
Even as Donald Trump and his allies ramped up their fundraising and political infrastructure in August, their combined monthly fundraising haul lagged $42 million behind that of Hillary Clinton’s forces, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission.
The Hill -- Scrutiny of Trump Foundation deepens
Donald Trump's campaign is grappling with new allegations that the GOP nominee used his charitable foundation to pay personal expenses. On Tuesday, The Washington Post published tax and legal documents alleging Trump’s foundation spent $258,000 to settle lawsuits that involved Trump’s for-profit businesses.
One of the sites we've long been a fan of, electoral-vote.com, published an interesting statistical note today: "We Are Removing the Ipsos Polls from the Database". They, like us, had been using Ipsos polling data even when some of the results appeared to be outliers.
What E-V did was run an analysis with and without the Ipsos polling data to see how much it changed their averages. Turned out it was a major difference, which should not be the case.
So...we tried the same analysis with our data and found the same result, though not as marked since we use a different cumulative weighted algorithm than they do. Still, as a result, we have likewise decided to remove Ipsos polling data, which is now reflected with today's update.
STATE POLLING
New polls today from New York (Clinton +21), California (Clinton +17), Maine CD1 (Clinton +11) and CD2 (Trump +11), North Carolina (Trump +1), Nevada (Trump +3), and Florida (Clinton +5).
Combining today's polls along with the removal of the Ipsos polling data, we have a rather interesting shakeup of the prediction map. The biggest changes are Florida and Ohio flipping opposite directions, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan dropping back into leaning status, and the biggest surprise of all, Texas moving into lean status. The latter has Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in a bit of a tizzy, at least according to an email he really wished hadn't gotten out to the public.
Most interestingly, at least to me, is that Clinton's "safe" lead dropped to a low of 195 to 126, but her projected overall lead over Trump is now higher than yesterday: 316 to 222.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.7%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.5%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 0.3%
Florida: Clinton up by 1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.7%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from NBC News, which has Clinton up five points over Trump, 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Donald Trump Jr. becomes campaign flashpoint
Donald Trump is trying to run a more disciplined campaign, going easy (for him) on slip-ups and inflammatory tweets lately. His eldest son is another story. In recent tweets, Donald Trump Jr. likened Syrian refugees to Skittles candy, spread an incendiary story suggesting Muslim men are preying on Western women and used a cartoon character appropriated by white supremacists.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Cites Bombings In Renewing Calls For Tougher Immigration Controls
Donald Trump on Monday renewed his calls for curbing immigration from countries where “safe and adequate screening cannot occur,” citing recent bombings in New York and New Jersey as proof that the government wasn’t doing enough to keep Americans safe.
CNN -- Trump: Black communities in worst shape 'ever, ever, ever'
Donald Trump thinks black communities in the US are "absolutely in the worst shape that they've ever been in before." Trump made the comment as he rallied supporters here on Tuesday and made his usual "what do you have to lose" pitch to African-American voters -- few of whom attended his rally in this rural part of this battleground state.
Fox News -- Clinton says Trump giving 'aid and comfort' to ISIS
It was inevitable, once that bomb exploded in lower Manhattan, that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would be engaged in a war of words over terrorism. The media’s conventional wisdom is that terror attacks help Trump, given his tough rhetoric about immigration and bombing the blank out of ISIS.
Politico -- Trump forces lagged Clinton in August money race
Even as Donald Trump and his allies ramped up their fundraising and political infrastructure in August, their combined monthly fundraising haul lagged $42 million behind that of Hillary Clinton’s forces, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission.
The Hill -- Scrutiny of Trump Foundation deepens
Donald Trump's campaign is grappling with new allegations that the GOP nominee used his charitable foundation to pay personal expenses. On Tuesday, The Washington Post published tax and legal documents alleging Trump’s foundation spent $258,000 to settle lawsuits that involved Trump’s for-profit businesses.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
48 Days Till Election Day: 14 new state polls
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Florida (Clinton +1), Georgia (Trump +3), Arizona (Trump +7), Colorado (Trump +3), Michigan (tied), Nevada (Trump +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), New Mexico (Trump +5), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Ohio (Clinton +3), Oregon (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +2), South Carolina (Trump +8), Wisconsin (Clinton +3).
Another big batch of polls from the battleground states (including some hadn't been considered battlegrounds until recently) that has changed up our prediction map. Again. The main changes are Ohio flipping from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat, New Hampshire moving to solid Democrat, and New Mexico dropping into leaning Democrat.
With the changes, Clinton now has a 248 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 311 to 227. And while this marks her return to 300+ territory, it needs to be noted that in five of the states where she is ahead, her lead is less than 2%. To say polling is volatile right now would be a bit of an understatement.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.5%
Georgia: Trump up by 4.1
Arizona: Trump up by 3.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.9%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 1.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 3.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Donald Trump Jr. likens Syrian refugees to poisoned Skittles
Donald Trump Jr. has posted a message on Twitter likening Syrian refugees to a bowl of poisoned Skittles. Seeking to promote his father's presidential campaign, the younger Trump posted a tweet featuring a bowl of the candy Skittles with a warning.
Buzzfeed -- Trump: Police Know Who Terrorists Are, Don’t Do Anything Out Of Fear Of Profiling
After a weekend of suspected terror attacks in New York and New Jersey, Republican nominee Donald Trump suggested again on Monday that law enforcement in the United States should consider religious and ethnic profiling as a tactic to prevent future attacks.
CNN -- Trump opens the personal insult vault (again)
On the campaign battlefield, Donald Trump follows a doctrine of disproportionate force. Even 50 days out from the election, after countless attempted "pivots" to a steadier pose, his impulses -- to meet even a modest political jab, unflattering piece of reporting, or polite interruption with deeply personal attacks -- remain mostly unchecked.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton accuse each other of boosting enemy
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton clashed sharply Monday in the wake of weekend attacks across three states that rocketed national security back to the forefront of the campaign, with the Democratic nominee accusing her opponent of giving “aid and comfort” to the enemy – and Trump saying terrorists are “praying” Clinton gets elected.
Politico -- George H.W. Bush to vote for Hillary Clinton
Former President George H.W. Bush is bucking his party's presidential nominee and plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in November, according to a member of another famous political family, the Kennedys.
The Hill -- Trump is doing better with Hispanics than you think
Donald Trump is performing about as well with Hispanic voters as GOP nominee Mitt Romney did in 2012, according to opinion polls — something that unsettles Democrats and surprises even some Republicans. Skeptics had suggested that Trump would suffer a blowout among Hispanics, given that his rhetoric, on illegal immigration in particular, has been controversial.
New polls today from Florida (Clinton +1), Georgia (Trump +3), Arizona (Trump +7), Colorado (Trump +3), Michigan (tied), Nevada (Trump +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), New Mexico (Trump +5), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Ohio (Clinton +3), Oregon (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +2), South Carolina (Trump +8), Wisconsin (Clinton +3).
Another big batch of polls from the battleground states (including some hadn't been considered battlegrounds until recently) that has changed up our prediction map. Again. The main changes are Ohio flipping from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat, New Hampshire moving to solid Democrat, and New Mexico dropping into leaning Democrat.
With the changes, Clinton now has a 248 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 311 to 227. And while this marks her return to 300+ territory, it needs to be noted that in five of the states where she is ahead, her lead is less than 2%. To say polling is volatile right now would be a bit of an understatement.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.5%
Georgia: Trump up by 4.1
Arizona: Trump up by 3.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.9%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 1.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 3.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Donald Trump Jr. likens Syrian refugees to poisoned Skittles
Donald Trump Jr. has posted a message on Twitter likening Syrian refugees to a bowl of poisoned Skittles. Seeking to promote his father's presidential campaign, the younger Trump posted a tweet featuring a bowl of the candy Skittles with a warning.
Buzzfeed -- Trump: Police Know Who Terrorists Are, Don’t Do Anything Out Of Fear Of Profiling
After a weekend of suspected terror attacks in New York and New Jersey, Republican nominee Donald Trump suggested again on Monday that law enforcement in the United States should consider religious and ethnic profiling as a tactic to prevent future attacks.
CNN -- Trump opens the personal insult vault (again)
On the campaign battlefield, Donald Trump follows a doctrine of disproportionate force. Even 50 days out from the election, after countless attempted "pivots" to a steadier pose, his impulses -- to meet even a modest political jab, unflattering piece of reporting, or polite interruption with deeply personal attacks -- remain mostly unchecked.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton accuse each other of boosting enemy
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton clashed sharply Monday in the wake of weekend attacks across three states that rocketed national security back to the forefront of the campaign, with the Democratic nominee accusing her opponent of giving “aid and comfort” to the enemy – and Trump saying terrorists are “praying” Clinton gets elected.
Politico -- George H.W. Bush to vote for Hillary Clinton
Former President George H.W. Bush is bucking his party's presidential nominee and plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in November, according to a member of another famous political family, the Kennedys.
The Hill -- Trump is doing better with Hispanics than you think
Donald Trump is performing about as well with Hispanic voters as GOP nominee Mitt Romney did in 2012, according to opinion polls — something that unsettles Democrats and surprises even some Republicans. Skeptics had suggested that Trump would suffer a blowout among Hispanics, given that his rhetoric, on illegal immigration in particular, has been controversial.
Monday, September 19, 2016
49 Days Till Election Day: 11 new state polls
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Oklahoma (Trump +15), Pennsylvania (Clinton +8), and Minnesota (Clinton +6). Plus a new series of Ipsos polls from last week that were just released for Virginia (Clinton +10), Texas (Trump +23), Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), Ohio (Clinton +4). New York (Clinton +24), Illinois (Clinton +15), Florida (Trump +4), and California (Clinton +38).
A mixed bag this morning. Trump has righted the ship in Texas and expanded his lead in a bit in Florida, while Clinton has moved Virginia out of battleground status, and reversed the trend in Ohio, bringing that state back to a virtual tie.
However, Pennsylvania has moved back into "leaning Democrat" status, and there's new concern in Democratic circles that once reliable Minnesota is trending closer than expected. Overall, last week was not a good week at all, polling-wise, for Team Clinton.
Currently, Clinton has a 229 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Florida: Trump up by 1.7%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.3%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Fox News that has Clinton up by one over Trump, 41% to 40%, with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 3%.
Interestingly enough, when only registered voters are polled (as opposed to likely voters), Clinton's lead jumps up to 4%. This just goes to show how important the "get out the vote" teams for both campaigns will be this November.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.6%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton campaign concedes work needed to woo young voters
Hillary Clinton is wooing younger voters in Philadelphia as her campaign acknowledges they need to do more to get millennials on board. Campaign communications director Jennifer Palmieri says Clinton will use the Monday morning event at Temple University to "speak directly to millennial voters about how they have the most at stake in this election."
Buzzfeed -- RNC Chair: Candidates Who Don’t Back Trump Could Be Punished In The Future
Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus said on Sunday that primary candidates who have not made good on their pledge to support Donald Trump could be punished by the party if they decide to run again in the future.
CNN -- Reality check: Chris Christie's whoppers on the birther issue
It was early Sunday morning when many Americans were having their breakfasts that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" with Jake Tapper -- serving up two whoppers.
Fox News -- Many voters want new leadership, but still uneasy about Trump
Half of likely voters think the country is in such deep trouble that a completely different kind of leader is needed to come in and shake things up. That sounds like good news for Donald Trump. Yet the latest Fox News Poll also finds a majority of voters don’t think Trump is qualified to be president.
Politico -- Clinton rips Trump for birther ‘prejudice and paranoia'
Hillary Clinton took aim at Donald Trump on Saturday for his involvement in the birther movement, working to keep the GOP nominee’s role in the conspiracy theory on voters’ minds the day after the GOP nominee attempted to officially take it off the table.
The Hill -- Trump: Saturday attacks show Clinton won't keep US safe
Donald Trump said that a trio of attacks across the U.S. on Saturday prove that President Obama's and Hillary Clinton's policies can't protect Americans. "Under the leadership of Obama & Clinton, Americans have experienced more attacks at home than victories abroad. Time to change the playbook!" he wrote.
New polls today from Oklahoma (Trump +15), Pennsylvania (Clinton +8), and Minnesota (Clinton +6). Plus a new series of Ipsos polls from last week that were just released for Virginia (Clinton +10), Texas (Trump +23), Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), Ohio (Clinton +4). New York (Clinton +24), Illinois (Clinton +15), Florida (Trump +4), and California (Clinton +38).
A mixed bag this morning. Trump has righted the ship in Texas and expanded his lead in a bit in Florida, while Clinton has moved Virginia out of battleground status, and reversed the trend in Ohio, bringing that state back to a virtual tie.
However, Pennsylvania has moved back into "leaning Democrat" status, and there's new concern in Democratic circles that once reliable Minnesota is trending closer than expected. Overall, last week was not a good week at all, polling-wise, for Team Clinton.
Currently, Clinton has a 229 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Florida: Trump up by 1.7%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.3%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Fox News that has Clinton up by one over Trump, 41% to 40%, with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 3%.
Interestingly enough, when only registered voters are polled (as opposed to likely voters), Clinton's lead jumps up to 4%. This just goes to show how important the "get out the vote" teams for both campaigns will be this November.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.6%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton campaign concedes work needed to woo young voters
Hillary Clinton is wooing younger voters in Philadelphia as her campaign acknowledges they need to do more to get millennials on board. Campaign communications director Jennifer Palmieri says Clinton will use the Monday morning event at Temple University to "speak directly to millennial voters about how they have the most at stake in this election."
Buzzfeed -- RNC Chair: Candidates Who Don’t Back Trump Could Be Punished In The Future
Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus said on Sunday that primary candidates who have not made good on their pledge to support Donald Trump could be punished by the party if they decide to run again in the future.
CNN -- Reality check: Chris Christie's whoppers on the birther issue
It was early Sunday morning when many Americans were having their breakfasts that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" with Jake Tapper -- serving up two whoppers.
Fox News -- Many voters want new leadership, but still uneasy about Trump
Half of likely voters think the country is in such deep trouble that a completely different kind of leader is needed to come in and shake things up. That sounds like good news for Donald Trump. Yet the latest Fox News Poll also finds a majority of voters don’t think Trump is qualified to be president.
Politico -- Clinton rips Trump for birther ‘prejudice and paranoia'
Hillary Clinton took aim at Donald Trump on Saturday for his involvement in the birther movement, working to keep the GOP nominee’s role in the conspiracy theory on voters’ minds the day after the GOP nominee attempted to officially take it off the table.
The Hill -- Trump: Saturday attacks show Clinton won't keep US safe
Donald Trump said that a trio of attacks across the U.S. on Saturday prove that President Obama's and Hillary Clinton's policies can't protect Americans. "Under the leadership of Obama & Clinton, Americans have experienced more attacks at home than victories abroad. Time to change the playbook!" he wrote.
Sunday, September 18, 2016
50 Days Till Election Day: No new polls today
STATE POLLING
No new state polls today.
Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton respond to New York City explosion
Donald Trump appeared to pre-empt New York City officials when he declared Saturday evening that a "bomb went off" in New York City before officials had released details. "I must tell you that just before I got off the plane a bomb went off in New York and nobody knows what's going on," Trump said, minutes after stepping off his plane during a rally at an airport hangar in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Buzzfeed -- Why It’s So Hard For Trump To Give Up His Birther Crusade
In the five years since Donald Trump first launched his birther crusade, he has had plenty of reasons — and opportunities — to disavow the conspiracy theory and apologize for championing it. Yet, even now, 51 days from a presidential election that he could conceivably win, the Republican nominee can’t quite bring himself to fully let go.
CNN -- Obama: Trump would be 'insult to my legacy'
President Barack Obama delivered an impassioned plea to the African-American community Saturday night to help stop Donald Trump, saying he would consider it a "personal insult" to his legacy if black voters didn't turn out for Hillary Clinton.
Fox News -- Putin: US campaign shows Russia's importance
Vladimir Putin says the prominence of Russia and himself as an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign indicates the country's growing importance. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's comments about Putin's power and support have brought rebuke from critics who suggest he would take a soft line in dealing with the Kremlin.
Politico -- Trump: Robert Gates 'probably has a problem we don't know about'
Donald Trump returned fire at former Defense Secretary Bob Gates at a Colorado rally Saturday, calling him a "nasty guy" who "probably has a problem we don't know about." The GOP nominee's comments come after Gates' scathing Wall Street Journal op-ed published online Friday, where he attacks Trump as “cavalier about the use of nuclear weapons,” with “a record of insults to servicemen, their families and the military.”
The Hill -- Trump threatens to sue New York Times
Donald Trump threatened to sue the New York Times on Twitter after posting several other messages blasting the paper and its well-known columnist Maureen Dowd. "My lawyers want to sue the failing @nytimes so badly for irresponsible intent. I said no (for now), but they are watching. Really disgusting," Trump tweeted.
No new state polls today.
Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton respond to New York City explosion
Donald Trump appeared to pre-empt New York City officials when he declared Saturday evening that a "bomb went off" in New York City before officials had released details. "I must tell you that just before I got off the plane a bomb went off in New York and nobody knows what's going on," Trump said, minutes after stepping off his plane during a rally at an airport hangar in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Buzzfeed -- Why It’s So Hard For Trump To Give Up His Birther Crusade
In the five years since Donald Trump first launched his birther crusade, he has had plenty of reasons — and opportunities — to disavow the conspiracy theory and apologize for championing it. Yet, even now, 51 days from a presidential election that he could conceivably win, the Republican nominee can’t quite bring himself to fully let go.
CNN -- Obama: Trump would be 'insult to my legacy'
President Barack Obama delivered an impassioned plea to the African-American community Saturday night to help stop Donald Trump, saying he would consider it a "personal insult" to his legacy if black voters didn't turn out for Hillary Clinton.
Fox News -- Putin: US campaign shows Russia's importance
Vladimir Putin says the prominence of Russia and himself as an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign indicates the country's growing importance. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's comments about Putin's power and support have brought rebuke from critics who suggest he would take a soft line in dealing with the Kremlin.
Politico -- Trump: Robert Gates 'probably has a problem we don't know about'
Donald Trump returned fire at former Defense Secretary Bob Gates at a Colorado rally Saturday, calling him a "nasty guy" who "probably has a problem we don't know about." The GOP nominee's comments come after Gates' scathing Wall Street Journal op-ed published online Friday, where he attacks Trump as “cavalier about the use of nuclear weapons,” with “a record of insults to servicemen, their families and the military.”
The Hill -- Trump threatens to sue New York Times
Donald Trump threatened to sue the New York Times on Twitter after posting several other messages blasting the paper and its well-known columnist Maureen Dowd. "My lawyers want to sue the failing @nytimes so badly for irresponsible intent. I said no (for now), but they are watching. Really disgusting," Trump tweeted.
Saturday, September 17, 2016
51 Days Till Election Day: No new polls today
STATE POLLING
No new state polls today.
Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump criticized for bait and switch on 'birther' statement
Donald Trump's renouncement of birtherism came with some media gamesmanship that compelled television news networks to air 20 minutes of endorsements by retired military men before the candidate briefly got to the point.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Says Clinton’s Security Detail Should Disarm
For the second time during the course of the presidential campaign, Donald Trump invoked the possibility of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s assassination. Trump, telling a crowd in downtown Miami, Florida, on Friday that Clinton wants to “destroy” their Second Amendment, said the Secret Service detail protecting her should disarm.
CNN -- Trump finally admits it: 'President Barack Obama was born in the United States'
Donald Trump finally admitted Friday that "President Barack Obama was born in the United States," reversing himself on the issue that propelled him into national politics five years ago.
Fox News -- Reid in nasty battle with Trump over weight, injury
Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid is fond of sparring with Republican presidential candidates, but the ex-boxer started an all-out street fight with Donald Trump this week -- and it only escalated Friday after the GOP nominee responded by mocking the injury that left Reid blind in one eye.
Politico -- No, Clinton didn't start the birther thing
After years of denying the legitimacy of Barack Obama’s presidency, it was only in the midst of his own presidential campaign that Donald Trump began falsely claiming Hillary Clinton was the true progenitor of the “birther” conspiracy theory claiming Obama was not born in the United States.
The Hill -- Nation's largest police union endorses Trump
The nation's largest police union on Friday endorsed Donald Trump for president, lauding his commitment to police officers. The Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) gave the GOP presidential nominee its endorsement after he received support from more than two-thirds of the group's national board.
No new state polls today.
Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump criticized for bait and switch on 'birther' statement
Donald Trump's renouncement of birtherism came with some media gamesmanship that compelled television news networks to air 20 minutes of endorsements by retired military men before the candidate briefly got to the point.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Says Clinton’s Security Detail Should Disarm
For the second time during the course of the presidential campaign, Donald Trump invoked the possibility of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s assassination. Trump, telling a crowd in downtown Miami, Florida, on Friday that Clinton wants to “destroy” their Second Amendment, said the Secret Service detail protecting her should disarm.
CNN -- Trump finally admits it: 'President Barack Obama was born in the United States'
Donald Trump finally admitted Friday that "President Barack Obama was born in the United States," reversing himself on the issue that propelled him into national politics five years ago.
Fox News -- Reid in nasty battle with Trump over weight, injury
Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid is fond of sparring with Republican presidential candidates, but the ex-boxer started an all-out street fight with Donald Trump this week -- and it only escalated Friday after the GOP nominee responded by mocking the injury that left Reid blind in one eye.
Politico -- No, Clinton didn't start the birther thing
After years of denying the legitimacy of Barack Obama’s presidency, it was only in the midst of his own presidential campaign that Donald Trump began falsely claiming Hillary Clinton was the true progenitor of the “birther” conspiracy theory claiming Obama was not born in the United States.
The Hill -- Nation's largest police union endorses Trump
The nation's largest police union on Friday endorsed Donald Trump for president, lauding his commitment to police officers. The Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) gave the GOP presidential nominee its endorsement after he received support from more than two-thirds of the group's national board.
Friday, September 16, 2016
52 Days Till Election Day: 15 new state polls
STATE POLLING
Lots of new polls from the past two days: Colorado (Trump +4), Iowa (Trump +8), Michigan (Clinton +3), Ohio (Trump +3 and +5), Missouri (Trump +13), Virginia (Clinton +3), North Carolina (tie), Georgia (Trump +4 and +6), Texas (Trump +7), Arkansas (Trump +28), Florida (Trump +3), Nevada (Trump +2), and Massachusetts (Clinton +26).
With only two exceptions, this has been an excellent couple of days of polling for the Trump Campaign. He has increased his leads in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Florida, dramatically cut into Clinton's lead in Colorado, as well as moving Michigan and Virginia back onto the battleground map. And while the overall electoral map lead remains unchanged, the "safe lead" has dropped by 29 for Clinton.
In fact, the only two bright spots for the Clinton campaign are their strong lead in Massachusetts and the nearly inexplicable continued dropping of support for Trump in, of all places, Texas. His lead in the Lone State State, which Mitt Romney won in 2012 with a near 16% margin of victory, has dropped to just 7.2%. Still safely Republican, but something to keep an eye on.
What all of this means is that the first debate between Trump and Clinton will be even more crucial for both campaigns, and in fact could go a long way to deciding the election. One wonders just how many people will be tuning in on Monday the 26th to see the two finally face off head-to-head.
Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls from Fox News, CBS News, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov.
In the six polls, Clinton is ahead +2 in two, +1 in one, she and Trump are tied in two, and Trump is ahead +1 in one. And while Johnson is at 13% in the Quinnipaic poll, in the rest he is mired in the single digits and it is not looking likely at all that he will have a part in the upcoming debate.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.8%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump mum while campaign says he believes Obama born in US
Donald Trump himself won't say it, but his campaign is now declaring that the Republican presidential candidate believes now that President Barack Obama was born in the United States. And his campaign is cheering Trump for bringing an end to an "ugly incident" that it blames, without evidence, on Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
Buzzfeed -- Hillary Clinton Returns To The Campaign Trail After Illness
Hillary Clinton returned to the campaign trail Thursday after taking time off to recover from pneumonia. The Democratic presidential nominee began her return Thursday with a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, where she criticized Republican rival Donald Trump and used her illness to illustrate the need for better healthcare in the US.
CNN -- 24 turbulent hours for Trump's children
As the campaign enters its final stretch, some of Donald Trump's children are showing signs of impatience and struggling to stay on message. In the past 24 hours, Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. have cut off interviews when pressed for answers on tough questions.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton trade barbs over Obama 'birther' flap
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traded barbs Thursday over the Republican nominee’s past suggestions that President Obama was born outside the U.S. and thus ineligible to be president, after Trump initially declined in an interview a day earlier to definitively say the president was born in America.
Politico -- Ryan suggests Trump should release tax returns
House Speaker Paul Ryan said Thursday he believes Donald Trump should release his tax returns, gently suggesting that the GOP nominee ought to divulge his personal finances as Ryan did when he ran for vice president.
The Hill -- Trump toughens anti-abortion stance
Donald Trump has recruited the influential anti-abortion leader Marjorie Dannenfelser to lead his campaign’s national “Pro-Life Coalition.” Not only that, but Trump has made a new policy promise that strengthens his anti-abortion position.
Lots of new polls from the past two days: Colorado (Trump +4), Iowa (Trump +8), Michigan (Clinton +3), Ohio (Trump +3 and +5), Missouri (Trump +13), Virginia (Clinton +3), North Carolina (tie), Georgia (Trump +4 and +6), Texas (Trump +7), Arkansas (Trump +28), Florida (Trump +3), Nevada (Trump +2), and Massachusetts (Clinton +26).
With only two exceptions, this has been an excellent couple of days of polling for the Trump Campaign. He has increased his leads in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Florida, dramatically cut into Clinton's lead in Colorado, as well as moving Michigan and Virginia back onto the battleground map. And while the overall electoral map lead remains unchanged, the "safe lead" has dropped by 29 for Clinton.
In fact, the only two bright spots for the Clinton campaign are their strong lead in Massachusetts and the nearly inexplicable continued dropping of support for Trump in, of all places, Texas. His lead in the Lone State State, which Mitt Romney won in 2012 with a near 16% margin of victory, has dropped to just 7.2%. Still safely Republican, but something to keep an eye on.
What all of this means is that the first debate between Trump and Clinton will be even more crucial for both campaigns, and in fact could go a long way to deciding the election. One wonders just how many people will be tuning in on Monday the 26th to see the two finally face off head-to-head.
Currently, Clinton has a 220 to 156 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 293 to 245. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.8%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Florida: Trump up by 1.1%
Leaning Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls from Fox News, CBS News, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov.
In the six polls, Clinton is ahead +2 in two, +1 in one, she and Trump are tied in two, and Trump is ahead +1 in one. And while Johnson is at 13% in the Quinnipaic poll, in the rest he is mired in the single digits and it is not looking likely at all that he will have a part in the upcoming debate.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 1.8%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump mum while campaign says he believes Obama born in US
Donald Trump himself won't say it, but his campaign is now declaring that the Republican presidential candidate believes now that President Barack Obama was born in the United States. And his campaign is cheering Trump for bringing an end to an "ugly incident" that it blames, without evidence, on Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
Buzzfeed -- Hillary Clinton Returns To The Campaign Trail After Illness
Hillary Clinton returned to the campaign trail Thursday after taking time off to recover from pneumonia. The Democratic presidential nominee began her return Thursday with a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, where she criticized Republican rival Donald Trump and used her illness to illustrate the need for better healthcare in the US.
CNN -- 24 turbulent hours for Trump's children
As the campaign enters its final stretch, some of Donald Trump's children are showing signs of impatience and struggling to stay on message. In the past 24 hours, Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. have cut off interviews when pressed for answers on tough questions.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton trade barbs over Obama 'birther' flap
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traded barbs Thursday over the Republican nominee’s past suggestions that President Obama was born outside the U.S. and thus ineligible to be president, after Trump initially declined in an interview a day earlier to definitively say the president was born in America.
Politico -- Ryan suggests Trump should release tax returns
House Speaker Paul Ryan said Thursday he believes Donald Trump should release his tax returns, gently suggesting that the GOP nominee ought to divulge his personal finances as Ryan did when he ran for vice president.
The Hill -- Trump toughens anti-abortion stance
Donald Trump has recruited the influential anti-abortion leader Marjorie Dannenfelser to lead his campaign’s national “Pro-Life Coalition.” Not only that, but Trump has made a new policy promise that strengthens his anti-abortion position.
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