STATISTICAL NOTE
One of the sites we've long been a fan of, electoral-vote.com, published an interesting statistical note today: "We Are Removing the Ipsos Polls from the Database". They, like us, had been using Ipsos polling data even when some of the results appeared to be outliers.
What E-V did was run an analysis with and without the Ipsos polling data to see how much it changed their averages. Turned out it was a major difference, which should not be the case.
So...we tried the same analysis with our data and found the same result, though not as marked since we use a different cumulative weighted algorithm than they do. Still, as a result, we have likewise decided to remove Ipsos polling data, which is now reflected with today's update.
STATE POLLING
New polls today from New York (Clinton +21), California (Clinton +17), Maine CD1 (Clinton +11) and CD2 (Trump +11), North Carolina (Trump +1), Nevada (Trump +3), and Florida (Clinton +5).
Combining today's polls along with the removal of the Ipsos polling data, we have a rather interesting shakeup of the prediction map. The biggest changes are Florida and Ohio flipping opposite directions, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan dropping back into leaning status, and the biggest surprise of all, Texas moving into lean status. The latter has Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in a bit of a tizzy, at least according to an email he really wished hadn't gotten out to the public.
Most interestingly, at least to me, is that Clinton's "safe" lead dropped to a low of 195 to 126, but her projected overall lead over Trump is now higher than yesterday: 316 to 222.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.5%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.2%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.7%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.5%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 0.3%
Florida: Clinton up by 1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.7%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from NBC News, which has Clinton up five points over Trump, 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Donald Trump Jr. becomes campaign flashpoint
Donald Trump is trying to run a more disciplined campaign, going easy (for him) on slip-ups and inflammatory tweets lately. His eldest son is another story. In recent tweets, Donald Trump Jr. likened Syrian refugees to Skittles candy, spread an incendiary story suggesting Muslim men are preying on Western women and used a cartoon character appropriated by white supremacists.
Buzzfeed -- Trump Cites Bombings In Renewing Calls For Tougher Immigration Controls
Donald Trump on Monday renewed his calls for curbing immigration from countries where “safe and adequate screening cannot occur,” citing recent bombings in New York and New Jersey as proof that the government wasn’t doing enough to keep Americans safe.
CNN -- Trump: Black communities in worst shape 'ever, ever, ever'
Donald Trump thinks black communities in the US are "absolutely in the worst shape that they've ever been in before." Trump made the comment as he rallied supporters here on Tuesday and made his usual "what do you have to lose" pitch to African-American voters -- few of whom attended his rally in this rural part of this battleground state.
Fox News -- Clinton says Trump giving 'aid and comfort' to ISIS
It was inevitable, once that bomb exploded in lower Manhattan, that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would be engaged in a war of words over terrorism. The media’s conventional wisdom is that terror attacks help Trump, given his tough rhetoric about immigration and bombing the blank out of ISIS.
Politico -- Trump forces lagged Clinton in August money race
Even as Donald Trump and his allies ramped up their fundraising and political infrastructure in August, their combined monthly fundraising haul lagged $42 million behind that of Hillary Clinton’s forces, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission.
The Hill -- Scrutiny of Trump Foundation deepens
Donald Trump's campaign is grappling with new allegations that the GOP nominee used his charitable foundation to pay personal expenses. On Tuesday, The Washington Post published tax and legal documents alleging Trump’s foundation spent $258,000 to settle lawsuits that involved Trump’s for-profit businesses.
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