VACATION NOTICE
I will be taking the holiday weekend off to travel to a small gathering of 75,000 or so geeks in Atlanta, and won't be updating this blog until Tuesday. Mainly because I doubt I'll even be awake before 10 a.m. every morning, much less coherent enough to do early-morning math.
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Virginia (Clinton +2), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), West Virginia (Trump +18).
More concern for the Clinton campaign, as the news from Virginia and Pennsylvania shows the races in each state getting a bit tighter. Virginia still remains a solid blue, but the polling numbers have been steadily dropping the past month. Pennsylvania remains steady, but will (most likely) see a concerted push from Trump and company this month.
Currently, Clinton has a 210 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 336 to 192. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.4%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.5%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.2%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.9%
Leaning Democrat
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.6%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.9%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.2%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.4%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.2%
Oregon: Clinton up by 5.2%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from USA Today and Rasmussen, both of which deviate from the norm and the two-week baseline, just in opposite directions.
USA Today has Clinton up by 7, leading Trump 42% to 35%, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 4%, while Rasmussen has Trump up by 1, leading Clinton 40% to 39%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 3% (the first time a standard poll has had Trump in the lead since shortly after the GOP Convention).
The end result of the contrasting polls? The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4.5%, down all of 0.2% from yesterday.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- State Dept. to release Clinton schedules before election
The State Department agreed Thursday to turn over all the detailed planning schedules from Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state to The Associated Press by mid-October. It was an abrupt reversal from U.S. government lawyers' warning last week that hundreds of pages would not be released until after the presidential election.
CNN -- House Republicans find success separating from Trump
House Republicans have had a rough summer. Donald Trump's poll numbers slid steadily in key battleground states, their Democratic counterparts outraised them by nearly 3-1 in July, and talk about the Senate GOP majority slipping away triggered fresh worries that the large House majority could also be in jeopardy.
Fox News -- Return to Sender: Hacker who exposed Clinton email sentenced
The Romanian hacker who first exposed Hillary Clinton's use of personal email for government business was sentenced by a federal judge Thursday to 52 months in prison -- and in a surprising development, Romanian authorities now want the 44-year-old “Guccifer,” who continues to cooperate with U.S. investigators, sent home "right away."
Huffington Post -- Trump’s Hispanic Advisers Ditch Him Over Hard-Right Immigration Plan
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is quickly losing some of his Hispanic advisers and supporters after a hardline anti-undocumented immigrant speech on Wednesday. Jacob Monty, an immigration lawyer based in Houston, withdrew his support, and at least two other members of Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council have followed suit
Politico -- GOP insiders: Trump's trip was a hit
Two-thirds of GOP members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, operatives and strategists in 11 key battleground states — rated the Republican nominee's meeting with President Enrique Peña Nieto, followed by an evening rally in Phoenix in which he reiterated his robust immigration proposals, as hugely or moderately successful, despite the potential contradiction between the two events.
The Hill -- Trump camp carefully scripts answers for interview with black pastor
Donald Trump's campaign is carefully planning the GOP nominee's responses for his first appearance at a black church Saturday, The New York Times reported. Trump will do an interview with Bishop Wayne T. Jackson in Detroit, Mich., at Great Faith Ministries International to air a week later. He will attend a service but will not address the congregation.
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